685
FXUS66 KLOX 131004
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
304 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...13/158 AM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will affect the
coasts and most valleys into next week. Max temperatures will
warm slightly today and Monday but remain below normal except for
far interior valleys. A cooling trend will develop Tuesday and
continue through the middle of next week when valley highs are
only expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...13/158 AM.

A small upper high over Srn CA will slowly break down today
through Tuesday. Hgts today will be an impressive 596 dam and will
slowly fall to 591 dam by Tuesday. The effects of these higher
than normal hights will be greatly mitigated by the strong onshore
push both to the east (5 to 9 mb) and north (4 to 6 mb).

There will be minimal day to day changes with the cloud cover
where skies will be clear with the major exception of a night
through morning low cloud pattern that will cover the csts and
vlys. The strong onshore flow will make for slower than normal
clearing and no clearing at many west facing beaches. The low
clouds will also arrive earlier in the evening for the coastal
areas.

Max temperatures today and Monday will mostly be in the 70s
across the coasts (mid to upper 60s beaches), with 80s and lower
90s in the valleys. These max temps are mostly 3 to 6 degrees
below normal for this time of year. The Antelope Valley, however,
with no marine influence will continue to see max temps from 100
to 105 each day which is 5 degrees above normal. The lower hgts on
Tuesday will bring max temps down by 2 to 4 degrees at the csts
and 3 to 6 degrees elsewhere.

Lastly the strong push to east will bring gusty winds to the
interior each afternoon and evening, especially the western
Antelope Valley and foothills. Wind speeds will be close to
advisory levels but likely just under with a few of the typical
gusty locations seeing gusts to 45 mph.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...13/304 AM.

For the long term period the upper pattern will become very weak
with no synoptic scale features to speak of. Hgts will be near 590
dam through the period. At the sfc the strong onshore flow will
continue through Thursday, and may even become a mb stronger,
before starting to weaken thursday night through Friday.

The condtions for Wednesday and Thursday will be very similar to
Tuesday. The night through morning low clouds and fog will
continue unabated and the beaches will continue to struggle with
clearing. Max temps will continue to run 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees
below normal with highs only in the 80s across the vlys. Strong
onshore flow will continue to bring gusty (likely advisory level)
winds to some of the mountains as well as the western portions of
the Antelope Valley and foothills.

Both the GFS and EC agree that starting Thursday evening and
really ramping up Friday there will be a significant amount of
moisture advecting in from the SSE at 700 mb and above. Yesterday
both the GFS and EC were dry below 700 mb, but the 00Z run of the
EC now shows significant moisture down to 850 mb. The NBM has
little in the way of cloud cover fcst but would not be surprised
is skies were at least partly cloudy. As of now, there is a 10
percent chance for monsoonal thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening hours Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0513Z.

At 0510Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3700 feet with a max temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions for KWJF and KPMD.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. VFR transition may be off
by +/- 90 minutes with a 20 percent chc of no clearing at all
coastal sites excluding KSBP, KCMA and KLGB.

There is a 20 percent chc of 1/4SM FG conds 08Z-15Z at KSBP,
KSMX, and KSBA.

For KPRB, there is a 15% chance for LIFR conds from 12Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive any time
from 19Z to 21Z with a 20 percent chc of no clearing. Any east
wind component will be 6 kt or less.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing and arrival times for
cigs may be off by +/- 90 minutes. There a 20 percent chc of
OVC004 conds 11Z-16Z and a 30 percent chc of cigs remaining AOA
010.

&&

.MARINE...12/647 PM.

Sunday afternoon and evening, localized Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) W to NW winds may impact the waters around Point Conception
south to the western Channel Islands, and nearshore from Point
Mugu to Pacific Palisades and through the San Pedro Channel.
Otherwise, relatively benign conditions will continue through at
least the middle of next week.

Night to morning patchy dense fog is possible through at least
Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lewis/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Black

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox