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000
FXUS64 KLZK 240537
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1237 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Currently, calm and dry conditions prevail across the state under
mostly sunny skies. A somewhat unsettled weather pattern will move
into the state tonight as a weak front moves in from the north.
Instability and moisture will be lacking with this front meaning
rain chances will be on the lower end as well as the chance for
strong to severe storms. The front is expected to continue to push
southward through the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning.
Highest rain chances will continue south with the front but continue
to remain low through at least late Wednesday morning.

An additional disturbance will ride up the front late Wednesday into
Thursday bringing a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Severe weather is still expected to remain on the low end. This
active and unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue into
the long term period.

Temperatures will remain average to slightly above average through
the period. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 60s to
lower 80s with overnight lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Guidance continues to advertise a very unsettled extended period
with focus on two distinct upper level shortwaves along with
several, considerably weaker waves. Model timing on the first
shortwave is in very good agreement while the second wave is showing
much more divergence between the models with the ECMWF quicker
versus its GFS counterpart. A middle of the road approach seems
prudent but regardless of the exact timing, a prolonged period of
precip seems likely through the period.

Period initiates with a warm front moving northward through the
state, reaching southern MO by early Friday as low pressure deepens
in the central plains. Front will continue to be the focus for
showers and storms, mainly across the central and northern parts of
the state as several weak impulses move through a rather stout
southwest flow aloft.

As the first wave passes to the northeast of the state on Friday,
the trough axis will cross the state with high end pops through the
majority of the day. A few strong to severe storms can not be ruled
out but the main focus for deep convection will be over the
northwest part of the state as a very warm and humid air mass will
be in place in the wake of the aforementioned boundary.

As quickly as the first wave departs, another one drops into the
four corners. Several more impulses will kick out of this second
wave during the day Saturday with generally low end precipitation
chances.

The best chances for heavy rain and possible severe weather will be
Sunday afternoon and night as this shortwave and its associated
cold front move through into northwest Arkansas come Monday morning.

Rain chances will slowly decrease on Monday and into Tuesday as the
parent low pulls away. Several inches of rain are expected over the
majority of the CWA and cumulative amounts will need to be monitored
for possible water concerns. Temperatures will average a few degrees
above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Frontal bndry over north AR wl cont to drift to the south and
eventually stall out in the southern part of the FA on Wed. Mainly
VFR conds wl prevail thru the PD, but some MVFR CIGS are possible
after daybreak Wed central and southern AR. Looks like any
organized rain chcs wl be limited, so no mention in the fcst.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...44