960
FXUS62 KMFL 171639
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1239 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A broad mid-level ridge will build over the Florida Peninsula today
and hang around through Saturday, helping to stabilize the
atmosphere and lead to mostly dry weather in the short term period.
However, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible
for coastal locations mainly on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze
boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours
today and tomorrow. Additionally, while the broad high pressure and
presence of a dry layer in the mid-levels should inhibit storm
growth, there will remain the chance for a couple of stronger storms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail along the
sea breeze.

Since the weather will be a bit more stable over the next few days,
the main headline will be the abnormally hot conditions for this
time of year. The setup responsible for sparking this heat wave is
both the presence of a shortwave trough over the Gulf states that
will be advecting through the Southeast states and the high pressure
over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern produces a warm and moist
south-southwest flow over the region while sinking air under the
high pressure also leads to warming, and this combination is
establishing the heat wave. In addition, high pressure typically
leads to less cloud cover, which would allow for extra diurnal
surface heating.

With all that said, heat indices today are expected to range around
103-107F and thus a Heat Advisory is in place for only Miami-Dade
today with heat indices expected to exceed 105F for multiple hours.
General high temperatures for today are expected in the low to mid
90s. For Saturday, temperatures are expected to rise further due to
reasons stated above into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices up
to 107-100F, so another Heat Advisory will be possible for tomorrow
if trends continue and could spread to multiple counties. Overall,
whether advisories or warnings are issued or not, anyone sensitive
to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or take cooling
breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

The long term period will start off with one more day of hazardous heat as
the hot and humid airmass remains over most of South FL on Sunday
with south-southwest flow. Throughout the day, a frontal boundary
associated with a mid-level trough over the Southeast US will
gradually push across Central FL and into our area. Along and
ahead of this frontal boundary there will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. With the front not
reaching our area until later in the day, high temperatures will
be able to reach the low to mid 90s, with heat index values in the
triple digits and potentially reaching advisory levels.

As the front continues to slowly pass through the region on Monday, there
will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some strong
storms possible to start the new week. With a cooler airmass and
more cloud coverage, high temperatures will be lower than on
Sunday, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat index
values near 100. After the front clears the area Monday night, a
slightly cooler airmass will settle in through at least mid-week,
providing relief from the recent stretch of heat with high
temperatures likely in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area,
and low temperatures in the 70s. With a drier airmass in place,
shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the low side, but we
could still see a few each afternoon along sea breeze boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through this 18Z TAF
period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
possible at the east coast terminals between 18 to 00Z but
expecting this to be primarily an isolated threat. Winds are
expected out of a W-SW direction today with the east coast
shifting to the SE in the afternoon with an expected sea breeze.
Tomorrow, winds will shift out of the S/SSE, but KAPF will
eventually shift WSW with the gulf breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Mainly benign conditions today and over the weekend with light to
moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic
waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas
at times and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  94  80  93 /   0  30  10  40
West Kendall     77  97  78  95 /   0  20  10  40
Opa-Locka        79  96  80  94 /   0  30  10  50
Homestead        79  94  80  93 /   0  20  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  92  80  91 /   0  30  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  94  80  92 /  10  30  20  50
Pembroke Pines   80  97  80  95 /   0  30  10  50
West Palm Beach  76  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60
Boca Raton       78  94  78  93 /  10  40  20  60
Naples           79  92  79  91 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ073-074-173-174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Redman