842
FXUS61 KRLX 111740
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather for the weekend. Cold front exits east of the
Appalachians early this evening. Wet weather returns Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 138 PM Saturday...

Cold front exits east of the Appalachians early this evening, taking
most of the convection with it. Lingering light showers are possible
behind the front, mainly higher elevations through at least
midnight. Behind the front, winds shift from the west northwest
remaining gusty through early evening, but subsiding later
tonight for most locations outside of the mountains. Much drier
airmass filters in behind the front providing mostly clear skies
late tonight through Sunday.

River valley fog will be possible once again overnight tonight
into early Sunday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail
through the end of period.

Slightly below normal temperatures expected tonight, generally in
the upper to mid 40s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper
30s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Not much of note for the short-term period. Sunday brings the exodus
of rain associated with a cold front passage and high pressure
swiftly building in behind it drying us out and keeping us mostly
cloud free. Temperatures will be mild and comfortable with highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s. The mountains will see temperatures in the
50s and 60s.

Much of the same dry weather in store for Monday, though flow
shifting out of the SW will provide warmer temperatures with low 80s
possible across the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1212 PM Saturday...

Active weather will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as
aforementioned wave moves east of the area. A brief break in the
precipitation is possible around Thursday as high pressure builds
into the area, however, another low in the southern stream is
expected to affect us once again towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 136 PM Saturday...

A cold front crossing the area this afternoon will produce a
wind shift from southwest to west northwest at PKB, HTS and CRW
around 19Z, following with CKB by 22Z and BKW and EKN by 00Z
Sunday. Wind gusts up to 20 knots are possible.

The front brings light to moderate showers capable to produce
MVFR conditions. Brief periods of IFR visibility may occur with
the heavier showers. Coded VCTS as most sites through the
evening hours as thunderstorm confidence runs low. Outside
shower activity, widespread VFR conditions are anticipated at
least through midnight.

Areas of dense fog will be possible along river valleys
overnight tonight through 12Z Sunday, when the sky clears, and
if the winds subside.

Any fog or low stratus will quickly dissipate by 13Z Sunday
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility and/or ceiling restrictions
overnight with fog/stratus may vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ