Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 232130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
330 PM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper level trough across Wyoming will move
southeast across northern and eastern Utah Tuesday. High pressure
aloft will settle across the interior west midweek and produce
very warm temperatures for the latter half of the week.


.SHORT TERM (Until 00Z Friday)...A near 700mb baroclinic zone
stretched west-to-east across southern Utah has become the focus
for weak convection this afternoon. Suspect that a few light
mountain showers exist along this boundary, with additional
showers possible before dissipating with the loss of daytime
heating early this evening.

Up north, the dry air that followed this mornings shortwave has
kept afternoon convective cloud cover in check. Clearing skies and
lower dew points should force temps several degrees lower than
this mornings lows for Tuesday morning.

An easterly flow aloft across Wyoming along with a surface high
working south into northern Wyoming will create enhanced canyon
winds along the northern Wasatch Front late tonight/early Tuesday.
The support for strong canyon winds does not materialize as the
near 700mb flow remains fairly weak, though the surface gradient
is sufficient for gusty, sub-advisory winds late tonight/Tuesday

The upper ridge building to the west of Utah will begin a warming
trend on Wednesday. This ridge will shift east into Utah by
Thursday, leading to much above temperatures and generally dry
conditions for the latter half of the week.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Friday)...Upper level ridging will be in place
across the West for the beginning of the long term forecast period.
Model to model consistency regarding the remainder of the long term
forecast has improved over the model runs of the past few days,
however timing/location issues persist. With very warm 700m
temperatures between 8-10C over northern Utah, Thursday is expected
to be very warm.

A cold, large trough off the Pacific Coast will be the main story
for the forecast through the weekend. Several shortwaves are
expected to eject across the area ahead of this trough, embedded in
the southwesterly flow. This will likely bring at least periods of
showers/thunderstorms Friday and cooler temperatures (though
remaining well above normal levels for late April).

The upper level low will finally move through the Interior West
later Saturday into Sunday (depending on the model). An active
pattern looks to remain in place early next week.

Main point: temperatures are expected to remain above normal
through much of the long term forecast period, although a more
active weather pattern will develop for late this week into
early next week.


.AVIATION...Northwest winds this afternoon should relax this evening
between 03z-04z. There is a 30 percent chance winds remain light and
northerly through the evening before becoming southerly overnight.





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