Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 191954

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
154 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Upper level analysis shows a ridge over the central CONUS, with
low pressure spinning over central Nevada. Some cirrus clouds are
streaming into the region from the southwest. Southeasterly winds
are becoming breezy between a surface high to the east and low to
the southwest. Temperatures are rising into the 50s.

Upper low will shift over the Four Corners region tonight. Rain will
begin spreading across the CWA early Friday morning, with some light
snow possible over the Hills. ECMWF and GFS have somewhat met in the
middle with their precip predictions, agreeing that the likeliest
chance for rain will be across the southern half of the CWA.

Precip will end early Saturday, as the low transitions
southeastward. Brief upper ridging will allow for a warm and dry
weekend, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

On Monday, a potent shortwave will dive into the northern plains.
The GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement about rain showers holding
off until the afternoon, whereas the Canadian is earlier. Some weak
instability may allow for a few isolated thunderstorms. Following
this wave, a more benign weather pattern is expected to bring a mild
and fairly dry rest of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1120 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Ahead of a storm system, VFR conditions are expected through
tonight as clouds gradually increase and lower. Gusty southeast
winds are expected through this evening with gusts around 35kts
at times over northeast WY and far southwest SD. -SHRA will
develop Friday morning as the storm system spreads MVFR CIGS into
the region. -SHSN may occur at the highest elevations of the
Black Hills along with IFR conditions.




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