Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 231442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1042 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

High pressure will bring dry weather and spring like
temperatures through Tuesday. The next chance for widespread
rainfall arrives late Tuesday and continues into Thursday.


Updated at 1015 am. Current forecast is on track with very few
changes in this update. Made a few temperature tweaks based on
latest observations and lowered dew points a little based on
tendency for guidance dew points to often be too high in dry,
sunny spring conditions. Temperatures are still on track to
reach well into the 60s with lots of sunshine under large high

As of 630 AM EDT, chilly temperatures this morning under
beautiful blue skies, with current readings ranging from 20
degrees to the mid 30s. So no updates needed to the forecast for
today other than minor tweaking of hourly temps to reflect
recent observations. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.

Prev Disc...If you have the opportunity, get outside today and
enjoy another day with plentiful sunshine and above normal
temperatures. While early morning temperatures will generally be
in the 20s to low 30s, afternoon highs are expected to warm
into the 60s is most locations with some spots across the mid-
Hudson valley climbing towards the 70 degree mark. Based on the
depth of the mixed layer across our area yesterday, have bumped
high temperatures up a few degrees from the ER Superblend.

Tonight should be a bit milder than in previous nights as high
pressure shifts east of the region and return flow begins to
usher in low level moisture and warmer air ahead of the next
storm system. There should also be a slight uptick in cloud
cover as we head towards dawn. Overnight lows are expected to
fall into the mid and upper 30s.


Widespread rainfall returns to the region late Tuesday,
bringing an end to the beautiful, spring weather that we have
been experiencing over the past several days.

A low pressure system will approach the region from the
Tennessee valley on Tuesday, spreading high-level clouds into
our area throughout the day. Additionally, there will be a
continued increase in low level moisture and lift leading to
shower activity by the evening commute, especially south and
west of the Capital District. Widespread rainfall is expected to
move into the remainder of the forecast area overnight Tuesday
night, continuing through Wednesday evening. Model guidance
suggests that PWATS will increase to 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal for this event, which could allow for brief, heavy
downpours and some ponding of water on roadways throughout the
day Wednesday. Temperatures will generally be in the 40s to mid
50s Tuesday night and during the day Wednesday.

The low pressure system moves through and begins lifting out of
the region Wednesday night, bringing an end to the steadier
rainfall from south to north. Temperatures shouldn`t cool too
much Wednesday night with overcast skies in place along with
rain showers, leading to values generally in the 40s.


The extended features cooler than normal temps and unsettled late
April weather for the region with multiple fast moving disturbances
within the mean longwave trough over the eastern CONUS.

Low pressure moves into northern Maine and the Canadian Maritimes,
as the dry slot initially moves across the region on THU.  However,
the closed compact upper level low to the system will linger over
the eastern Great Lakes Region and upstate NY for a chance of
showers lingering on THU.  The cyclonic vorticity advection with the
mid and upper level low may have the showers timed well to the
diurnal heating. The better coverage of the showers will likely be
from the I-90 corridor north.  Highs will run cooler than normal
with mid 40s to lower 50s west of the Hudson River Valley and over
the mtns, and mid 50s to around 60F from the Hudson River Valley
east except over the southern Greens and northern Berkshires.

Thu night into Friday...The mid and upper level low lifts north and
east for some weak short-wave ridging to build in.  Any lingering
isolated to scattered showers should end early in most locations and
the skies may clear for temps to drop off into the 30s.  Some light
snow showers may persist along the western spine of the Adirondacks
and Greens. Our forecast favors the 00Z ECMWF and some of the GEFS
with next short-wave trough and its associated clipper arriving late
FRI.  We only placed a slight chc of showers in the forecast grids.
Highs rebound closer to seasonable readings with 60-65F readings in
the lower elevations and 50s over the hills and mtns. Clouds will be
thickening and lowering from the south and west.

Fri Night into Saturday...The clipper low and its associated cold
front quickly approach and swing across the region by Saturday
morning.  The mid and upper level trough amplifies over the eastern
CONUS. There is pretty good low-level convergence with the front and
short-wave for high chc POPS on SAT.  Lows will be in the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the region.  Highs on Saturday will be cooler than
normal with upper 40s to upper 50s across most the region with some
lower 60s over the mid Hudson Valley.  Strong differential thickness
advection occurs in the wake of the cold front, as low and mid level
cold advection occurs.

Sat night into Sunday...A secondary cold front coupled with some
lake effect rain/snow showers may impact locations mainly from the
Capital Region/Berkshires north and west with slight/low chance or
rain or snow showers. The snow showers would be across the
western/southern Adirondacks/southern Greens/eastern Catskills,
where light snow accums may occur.  Highs will still run about 5-10
degrees below normal, and Sunday morning mins will be in the upper
20s to upper 30s.


High pressure will be over NY and New England today into tonight
with VFR conditions for KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF ending 12Z/TUE.

The subsidence from the sfc anticyclone and ridge aloft will
yield clear skies and fairly light winds. The air mass will be
very dry.

The winds will south to southwest at 4-7 KT in the late morning
into the afternoon, before becoming light to calm once again


Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


High pressure will bring dry weather and slightly above normal
temperatures through Tuesday. The next chance for widespread
rainfall arrives late Tuesday and continues into Thursday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 15 to 30 percent this
afternoon and 25 to 45 percent Tuesday afternoon. RH values
will recover to 70 to 100 percent Monday night. RH values will
be near 100 percent Tuesday night as rainfall begins.

Winds will be south at 10 mph or less today and tonight,
increasing to 15 mph with gusts possibly to 20 mph Tuesday


Rivers and streams continue to slowly recede from heavier
rainfall earlier this week.

Dry weather is expected today through Tuesday with slightly
above normal temperatures which will allow for some snowmelt in
the mountains. There will be some evaporation of the snow pack
and snow melt through Tuesday afternoon due to the the very dry
atmosphere and strong daytime April sunshine. So, not all the
snow melt will run off into area rivers through Tuesday
afternoon because of the evaporation.

The next chance for widespread precipitation mainly in the form
of rain will arrive late Tuesday and continue into Thursday as
a low pressure system lifts across our area. At least one half
of an inch up to an inch of rainfall is possible with this
system. The latest MMEFS shows only minor rises on area rivers
and creeks at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




LONG TERM...Wasula
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