Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270417
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1217 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the north tonight then slide
into the Maritimes on Sunday. A cold front will approach on
Monday and cross the region Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12:15 am update: Clear across northern areas with some high
clouds across the Downeast Region. Temperatures have dropped
into the 30s in a few of the normally colder northern valleys
(31F at Estcourt Station), but it is still in the mid 50s at
Bangor as of midnight. Made some minor tweaks, mainly to the
temps based on the latest observations, but overall nothing too
significant as the ongoing forecast is in good shape.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure building to our north will bring a mostly clear,
dry and chilly night tonight. Lows will drop into the mid 30s
over the north with some low 30s in the northwest. Patchy frost
is possible in northeastern areas with areas of frost in the
northwest. This will give way to a sunny day over the north and
a partly to mostly sunny day Downeast as high pressure slides
into the Maritimes. The high to our east will continue to ridge
across our region Sunday night. However, some moisture will
begin to increase from a weak upper level shortwave approaching
and some moisture wrapping around the back side of the surface
high. The moisture will bring a mostly cloudy day on Monday.
Most of the day will remain dry. However, some light showers
will be possible over western and northwestern areas late in the
day as moisture associated with the shortwave lifts to our
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another round of showers expected Monday night and then
improving for Tuesday.

The model guidance including the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian Global
show a frontal boundary sliding across the region Monday night.
The 12Z NAM and its counterpart the NAM12 are faster in
bringing measurable rainfall by Monday evening. The 12Z ECMWF is
similar to the NAM with measurable rainfall by the evening. The
cold front is shown to move across the region by 2 AM w/at
least 0.25" of rainfall forecast w/the bulk of the rainfall
being northern-central areas. The front is expected to clear the
region by Tuesday morning w/clearing taking place as nw winds
take over. Decided to bring wind speeds up on Tuesday w/a
direction from the nw at 15-20 mph sustained. Attm, kept the
strongest wind speeds across the northern and eastern sections.
Near normal temps w/readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s north
and west while central and downeast locations should make it
into the mid 70s w/the downsloping wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pres to settle in and take control in Thursday.

Temps will be warming on Wednesday w/many of the sites hitting
well into the 70s and possibly apchg 80 degrees. Attm, kept
Wednesday`s daytime forecast temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Thursday looks to be even warmer as the high slides s of the
region and a return flow sets up. Expecting light southerly
winds and a decent amount of sunshine to allow for temps to
soar well into the 80s w/some sites across the Central Highlands
and into NW Maine touching 90 degrees. The Bangor region to the
coast look like they will be cooler as a sea-breeze kicks in
during the afternoon. Dewpoints will rise into the mid 50s by
midday on Thursday adding a little more humidity to the air.

Clouds will be on the increase Thursday night into Friday as the
increasing return flow brings in some moisture in the form of
low clouds and possible fog developing. The long range guidance
including the NAM/ECMWF and GFS show moisture from that
sub-tropical system could get pulled up into the New England
region later Friday into Saturday. Attm, per collaboration
w/GYX, decided on 30-40% POPs for rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight
through Monday. The only possible exception may be some patchy
fog over the north in the river valleys around dawn Sunday
morning.

SHORT TERM: MVFR w/even some IFR especially across KBGR and
KBHB Monday night w/conditions improving to VFR on Tuesday.
Conditons will remain VFR into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will approach small craft levels
tonight, and may even briefly reach small craft, but it looks
to be brief enough that opted not to issue small craft.
Visibilities will be good.

SHORT TERM: Not looking for any headlines in the medium range
as winds will be below SCA(25 kts) and seas holding 4-5 ft. This
will be especially true for Monday night into Tuesday w/the
fropa.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ002-006.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB/Foisy
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Foisy/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Foisy/Hewitt


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