Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 231837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
237 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Low pressure remains centered across SE MO/SW TN/W KY this afternoon
with a secondary area of low pressure across eastern AL. A warm
front extends eastward from the secondary area of low pressure
across south central GA. The widespread...steadier rainfall...has
moved off to the east of the CWFA this afternoon. However, scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across
the outlook area.

The ongoing convection should continue during the heating of the
day, but coverage is expected to begin diminishing after sunset.
Storms have blossomed, especially where the clouds have
thinned/cleared out. The atmos remains very moist and CAPES south of
the warm front are between 1000-1500 J/Kg. The mid level lapse rates
are marginal, but 500mb analysis shows a shear axis situated right
over the Interstate 85 corridor. PWATS have decreased a little, but
still remain an inch or more across the CWFA, so locally heavy
rainfall will remain possible. A few storms could be strong and
there is some potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm. The
primary mode for any severe weather would be damaging wind gusts and
large hail. Can`t rule out an isolated brief tornado. Scattered
convection is also anticipated on Tuesday.

Will be extending the current Flood Watch through midnight.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Extended forecast continues to be on track. Have made adjustments
to pops and wx grids early in the period given the slight change
in timing with the late week system. Otherwise, have massaged
max/min temperatures to account for the latest model trends.
Otherwise, previous forecast discussion follows.


/Issued 519 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

Aside from some lingering slight pops across the north for Tuesday
night into Wednesday with the departing low from the short term,
the main focus will be on two shortwaves set to traverse the
region later in the week. Guidance is coming into much better
agreement with the features and have a higher amplitude wave that
nearly cuts off as it digs farther south into the Mississippi
Valley for Thursday. The translated sfc low does try to show a bit
more organization than previous runs and progged CAPE values are
enough to include slight chance thunder mention (most likely
elevated given the position of the low).

The second shortwave looks to quickly dig into the region for
Friday night/early Saturday with an almost identical evolution as
the Thursday wave. Kept pops lower with this given how far out in
the fcst, though future updates may very well raise chances if
subsequent runs maintain consensus.

Temps generally slightly below climo norms through fcst period.
Most days with upper 40s to low 50s for mins and upper 60s to low
70s for maxs.



18Z Update...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue to impact ATL through
the early evening hours. Do think activity will diminish a bit
after sunset with a period of dry conditions for the remainder of
the overnight. Do think sct shra will develop once again tomorrow.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but think
chances are too small to mention at this time. Will handle in
further amds/tempos. A wind shift to the SW should occur between
03z and 05z tonight. A brief period of IFR cigs possible right
around 12z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.



Athens          56  72  53  74 /  70  30  20   5
Atlanta         56  69  55  70 /  70  40  20  10
Blairsville     52  66  50  65 /  90  60  30  20
Cartersville    53  69  53  70 /  70  40  20  10
Columbus        55  73  56  75 /  20  30  10   5
Gainesville     55  69  54  70 /  80  40  30  10
Macon           55  74  54  76 /  50  30  10   5
Rome            53  70  53  70 /  70  40  20  20
Peachtree City  53  71  53  72 /  60  30  20   5
Vidalia         59  77  58  78 /  60  20  10   5


Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for the following zones:



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