499
FXUS65 KFGZ 140501
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1001 PM MST Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures to continue through Tuesday,
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with
gusty winds but mostly light rainfall. A gradual uptick in
moisture is forecast during the mid to late week period, with a
potential for much wetter conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure stretches from off the southern
California coast northeast into Nevada and Utah. Hot temperatures
will continue for the next few days as this general pattern
continues. Moisture is limited today through around Tuesday, with
isolated to scattered mostly high-based shower and thunderstorm
activity containing lighter rainfall and gusty winds. An Extreme
Heat Warning will continue through Wednesday for the Grand Canyon
below 4000 feet through Wednesday evening due to high temperatures
of 110-115F at those lower elevations. Winds outside of shower/
storm activity generally 5-15 mph with some gusts around 20 mph. A
bit stronger wind Tuesday afternoon in NW Arizona with gusts 25-30
mph forecast.

From Wednesday onward into next weekend - model consensus is for
the ridge to weaken and move east of Arizona, which is a more
favorable position for monsoon moisture to return. We are
currently forecasting a cooling trend with significantly higher
humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances. Storms should transition
from high-based/gusty wind to wetter storms with increasing
chances for higher rainfall amounts. WPC has included the White
Mtns and Gila County in the marginal risk for excessive rainfall
on Wednesday, expanding west and north to include the majority of
northern Arizona by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 14/06Z through Tuesday 15/06Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected, but brief MVFR conditions are possible in
SHRA/TSRA. Also, FU expected along and NW of a KGCN-KPGA line.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA forecast to pick up after 18Z and last
through at least 04Z, primarily along and south of a KGCN-KRQE
line. Outside of gusty storm driven outflow winds, look for
variable winds 5-15 kts gusting near 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 15/06Z through Thursday 17/06Z...Daily chances
for SHRA/TSRA will continue, with best chances between 18Z-04Z
each day. Outside of reduced visibilities and ceilings in heavier
storms, VFR conditions should prevail. W-SW winds 10-20 kts
gusting near 25 kts expected during the afternoons, but
gusty/erratic winds from storms will be likely.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms each day, especially south of the I-40 corridor.
Daytime winds variable at 5 to 15 mph, with thermally driven gusts
to 20 mph Monday. Winds trending west through southwest at the same
speeds for Tuesday. Wind speeds a bit stronger over northwestern
Coconino County on Tuesday. Gusty and erratic winds possible in and
around thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday...Cooling temperatures and widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. Wetting rains are likely with
stronger storms. Winds west through southwest at 5 to 15 mph, with
gust to 20 mph, each day. Gusty and erratic winds possible in and
around thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff