Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 232222

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
322 PM MST Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect well above normal daytime temperatures and dry
conditions much of this week. A slight chance of high based
showers or thunderstorms is anticipated later in the week, mainly
over the eastern counties.


.DISCUSSION...Temperatures around 10 degrees above average are
forecast to persist through much of this week. A high-amplitude
ridge over the western U.S. will be the main feature influencing
northern Arizona`s weather over the next several days. Short-wave
troughs diving southeastward will move from the northern Rockies
to the central and southern Plains, the first one from now through
Wednesday and the second one from Wednesday through Friday. Enough
moisture may make it into especially eastern portions of Arizona
on Friday and Saturday that a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms is included in the forecast.

A closed low located off the coast of northern California through
much of this week will move onshore and begin to increase
southwest wind speeds this weekend, especially on Sunday. A short-
wave trough axis is forecast to move through a week from today,
with cooler temperatures probable next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...VFR conditions will persist
across northern Arizona throughout the next twenty-four hours. SW
winds around 10-15 kt are forecast Tuesday afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Generally light winds and temperatures near 10
degrees above average will continue through Wednesday. Afternoon
minimum relative humidity will be in the single digits and teens.

Thursday through Saturday...A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms is forecast to develop over portions of mainly
Navajo and Apache counties on Friday and Saturday, with minimal
coverage and little precipitation expected. Southwest wind speeds
are expected to increase from Friday into Saturday.






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