Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 171030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
630 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Cold weather will continue through the weekend. A cold front
will move across the region today with scattered snow showers.
A very cold night is on tap for tonight in the wake of the
front. Low pressure is expected to develop off the mid atlantic
coast midweek and then pass well south of the area.


625 AM...pushed back clouds and pops associated with the front by
about 2 hours early this AM, as the forecast had them coming in
a bit early. Also tweaked temps just a bit this morning,
although nothing to impact temps through the day today. Still
watching the potential for a snow squall or two mid morning
into early afternoon, mainly across NH and SW ME.

Previously...Cold front will cross the region this morning, and
some backing winds aloft are taking a toll on the upslope SHSN
in the mtns, and will do so for a few hours before the front
arrives. The front will cross the region between about 13-19Z.
Some models show very little in the way of SHSN associated with
the front, while others show a corridor of SHSN forming S and W
of a line from KPWM-KIZG-KPWM and then up through nrn NH.
Actually BTV WRF Snow squall parameters show some farily high
values especially in the srn part of this region around midday.
The question is if the the SHSN associated with the front
develop enough in the mtns and foothills of NH, to survive a
fairly decent downslope. Will have to watch this during the
early to mid morning, and address with statements if they do
develop. Could see some gusty winds and localized vsby sown to
1/2 mile or less, along with a quick half inch to an inch of
snow in some spots.

Otherwise, look for a period of partly to mostly cloudy skies
around midday, with clearing skies behind the front mid-late
afternoon. Highs will be reached just ahead of the front,
generally around 20 in the N to around 30 in the S. Could see a
little surge of upslope in the mtns right behind the front, but
the air coming in behind is so dry, it will shut off fairly
quickly, and definitely by evening.


The CAA will be going in full force late today into this
evening,before winds begin die off, and lows will generally be
in the single digits in most places, ranging from near zero in
the N, to around 10 in the S.

Sunday looks like we`ll see a lot of sun, but will be stuck in
the cold air with highs generally running 20-30 again. Will
still see some gusty winds, but as not as bad as Saturday.


A broad upper trof will remain over the maritimes Sun night
through midweek providing a cold northwest flow with temps well
below normal.  The air mass will remain dry through midweek.

The system that bears watching will be an upper low currently
over the southern Rockies that will move through the southern plains
early in the week and then move off the mid atlantic coast
midweek. Latest model runs seem to be coming more in-line with
a solution that keeps this southern stream system separate from
phasing with the northern stream. This will allow the system to
pass well south of New England to have much, if any, affect
across the area. Latest blended model guidance reflects this
scenario with low POPs which was accepted. With this in mind
expect cold, below normal temps and generally dry weather
through the latter part of the week as well.


Short Term...Mainly VFR through Sunday. Will have to watch for
the possibility of a brief snow squall around midday, which
would bring vis down to LIFR or lower. best chance will be
across NH and SW ME /KPWM/. Less chance at KRKD and KAUG. NW
winds will gust to around 25-30 kts today, especially this

Long Term...VFR conditions.


Short Term...SCA will hold as is, into this evening, as cold
from will cross the waters this afternoon, and gusts to 30 kts
will be common into the evening.

Long Term...No flags expected through midweek.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151-
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.


LONG TERM...Marine
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