Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 171828 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
228 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.NEAR TERM /through Sunday/...
High pressure shifts S and E of forecast area through Sunday...with
warm southwest flow over the area to continue above normal
temperatures. Radar has shown first area of scattered showers fall
apart over our northwestern counties...with another area further
west likely to again diminish over south-central GA later today.
Will maintain low POPs for our northern counties this afternoon. Dry
conditions anticipated Tonight and Sunday. Model guidance suggests
showers could approach our western counties Sunday afternoon...and
will show low POPs there after 18z. Latest consensus guidance
supports current low temp forecast Tonight 55-60...and high temp
forecast Sunday in the lower 80s inland...upper 70s coast.

.SHORT TERM (Sunday night-Tuesday)...

Frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across the Altamaha
Sunday night before lifting north as a warm front on Monday. Models
continue to indicate a possible MCS developing as a short wave rides
the frontal boundary which could produce a round of storms with
locally heavy rain across Se Ga and extreme Ne Fl Sunday night into
early Monday. Both instability and shear increase Monday with the
whole area getting into the warm sector and if storms can get going
again in the afternoon (from heating and short waves) they may
become severe and SPC has most of the area from the I-10 corridor
north into Se Ga under a slight risk of severe weather and most of
the remaining area under a marginal risk. Another chance of severe
weather may be across portions of Ne Fl on Tuesday when a potent
short wave trough digs into the Se U.S. which may produce a pre-
frontal band of strong to severe storms as a surface wave forms
across Se Ga. These storms would exit the area during the course of
the afternoon as the low kicks to the northeast and the dry slot
moves in. The likelihood of late night and morning low clouds and
fog will also be high given the increasingly moist Sw flow. Best
chances of dense fog appear to be from near the gulf coast to I-75.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night-Friday)...

Much cooler and drier air moves into the area as a mid/upper trough
amplifies across the eastern U.S. and a Canadian high builds into
the area. Below normal temps expected with low temps falling into
the mid/upper 30s inland Wed and Thu nights. A warm up up commences
by early next weekend as the long wave trough lifts out and the
surface high begins to move offshore.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions through much of Tonight. Latest guidance
suggests some low cloudiness and patchy fog could develop after 06z,
and have incorporated potential for this in latest TAFs. Would
anticipate VFR conditions mid morning onward Sunday with westerly
surface winds.


.MARINE...High pressure will shift S and E of the waters during the
weekend. A series of low pressure systems will track to the north of
the waters. This will maintain a southwesterly flow in the 10-15 kt
range and 2-4 ft seas through the weekend. A stronger system will
approach the waters late Monday and Tuesday resulting in increased
southwest winds and seas as well as potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms. A strong cold front will move across the waters
Tuesday night. Winds and seas expected to increase to advisor
criteria Tue-Wed.

Rip Currents: Low risk expected with offshore flow through Sunday.


AMG  59  81  60  76 /  10  10  70  60
SSI  60  76  60  71 /  10  10  60  80
JAX  58  81  60  81 /  10  10  40  70
SGJ  57  79  58  78 /  10  10  20  60
GNV  56  82  58  80 /  10  10  20  50
OCF  56  82  58  81 /  10  10  10  40





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