Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 210910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
210 AM PDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Showers along with afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday. Some of the storms
could produce locally moderate to heavy rain, small hail, and
strong wind gusts. Some drying and warming is expected at the end
of the week.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday.

Widespread cloudiness covers Nevada early this morning with
scattered showers continuing though they are expected to continue
decreasing in coverage as the morning wears on.

The upper low has now closed off and will be centered over
southern California today with northern and central Nevada
sitting under the northern side of the upper low. Showers and
thunderstorms will redevelop during the late morning and
afternoon hours. The extensiveness of the clearing that we had
Sunday morning will not be occurring this morning, so
thunderstorms will be probably be slower to form and could be a
bit more limited in their strength. A few stronger storms are
still possible, however, which may contain locally heavy rainfall,
small hail and strong wind gusts. Highs will be in the mid 60s to
the lower 70s. Winds will be breezy in the central part of the
forecast area.

For Monday night, rain showers with the possibility of an isolated
thunderstorm will continue into the overnight. The lows are
expected to be in the 40s.

On Tuesday the low will move northeast through Nevada. With the
cold core directly over us, thunderstorm coverage will expand in
the afternoon and again, some strong storms will be possible.
Showers will likely also be more widespread than the last few
days and pops and qpf were bumper up a bit. This will also limit
high temperatures a little and most areas will not make it out of
the 60`s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Sunday. Models are
performing very well through late in the week but there are some
notable differences with location of the next Pacific low feature
expected to move onshore during the Memorial Day weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday evening. Another low pressure
trough will be traversing the state en route to central Canada and
central low pressure will be over the center of the LKN CWFA
around midnight Tuesday night. Showers will continue with daily
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some storms could produce
locally heavy downpours and hail. High temperatures will be in the
70s. Low temperatures will be in the 40s.

Thursday midnight through Friday night. This is the best shot at a
dry period in the upcoming forecast. Ridging to some extent will
result from the upstream deepening low pressure area out over the
eastern Pacific. There will be an enhanced southwest flow aloft
and temperatures will spiral upward as a result. High temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Low temperatures will
be in the 40s.

Saturday through Sunday. Model agreement is wavering with this
period however there is better consensus that there will be some
showers and thunderstorms around. Low pressure will move through
California and Nevada. There is discrepancy in how far south the
trough will extend. Warm temperatures will continue into Saturday
before the low moves over the Silver State. High temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s Saturday, cooling down
to the 70s by Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the 40s.


.AVIATION...Scattered showers along with afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will continue to affect KWMC KEKO KELY KTPH and KBAM.
Brief heavy rain could bring VIS down to MVFR levels.




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