Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221120
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
620 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...A weak surface pressure pattern is in place across
the Mid-South accompanied by weak ridging aloft. It is much
quieter tonight with no precipitation and partly cloudy skies. All
the recent rain has led to some patchy fog across parts of the
area so use caution while driving this morning. Temps range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s with nearly calm winds.

Today through Thursday...Generally expect weak upper ridging to
continue to build over the area while a back door cold front
pushes into the region today and then stalls just south of the
region Wednesday and Thursday. As the weak front pushes south
today along with a weak upper level disturbance the latest hi res
models indicate that the best chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be across West Tennessee into North Mississippi this
afternoon. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s. A few of these
storms could be strong with perhaps a severe storm as well. By
Wednesday and Thursday the front will be south of the area with
some drier air, PWs drop below an inch, expected to work into
northern and eastern areas with mainly afternoon rain chances
confined to the southern part of the forecast area. Highs will
generally reach the upper 80s. Cannot rule out a strong to severe
storm or two across North Mississippi.

Friday through Memorial Day...Models are in pretty good agreement
with moving a disturbance from the Gulf of Mexico into the lower
Mississippi Valley and eventually into the Mid-South during this
period. There is some disagreement with the exact track of the
system but an increase in moisture across the area seems likely.
This will result in more numerous showers and thunderstorms by the
weekend, probably continuing into next week. Clouds and
precipitation will keep temps in the 80s. Will continue to mention
the possibility of a strong to perhaps a severe storm through
this period since the airmass should continue to destabilize each
afternoon. Heavy rain may become more of a concern this weekend
into early next week depending on the evolution and track of this
system.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

Dense fog will continue for another hour or so at JBR with
improving conditions thereafter. Expect generally VFR ceilings to
develop today, although a brief period of MVFR conditions are
possible as the Cu field develops. Otherwise, expect cloud bases
generally between 3500-4500 ft through mid/late afternoon.
Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are anticipated again today, so
VCTS was included at MEM/MKL where the potential is greatest.
Prevailing winds will be light and variable but outflow from
surrounding convection may result in a chaotic wind field this
afternoon. Patchy fog is expected to develop again overnight.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Clay-
     Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-
     Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Dunklin-
     Pemiscot.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coahoma-
     Tunica.

TN...None.

&&

$$



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