Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 232148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
348 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...High Fire Danger returns to the I-25 corridor Saturday though
with slightly less wind...

Wind speeds appear to have peaked earlier this afternoon, as weak
line of convection under the upper trough moved off the mountains
and helped push gusts over 50 kts along much of the I-25 corridor,
with even a few 60 kt plus gusts near Colorado Springs and
Walsenburg. Surface obs and latest HRRR suggest winds are finally
beginning to lessen as of 21z, though will still keep the high wind
highlight in place into early evening, as gusts are still near 50
kts in places, and some weak convection still lurks west of
Trinidad, which may briefly enhance gusts along the srn I-25
corridor the next few hrs. Snow over the mountains was gradually
ending this afternoon, but will keep winter wx advisory up until
early evening to account for howling winds and blowing snow at/above
pass level. Winds diminish overnight as upper system lifts east and
cold front drops south through the plains, with speeds dropping
below 15 kts most locations by early Saturday morning.

On Saturday, S-SE return flow develops quickly over the plains, as
surface pressure begins to fall once again in the lee of the eastern
mountains. Certainly won`t be as windy as today, but with gusts in
the 20-30 mph range and humidity around 15 percent, upgrade of fire
wx watch to a Red Flag Warning looks warranted, mainly along and
just east of the I-25 corridor. Max temps will cool a few degf from
Friday`s rather toasty maxes, though most locations will end up
above late March averages, and some low to mid 70s will be likely
over the eastern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Relatively active conditions are expected to continue over the
forecast district during the balance of the longer term with
primary initial meteorological concerns being above seasonal
temperatures, gusty winds and critical fire weather conditions at
times into Monday, followed by cooled/unsettled conditions
developing over the majority of the CWA from Monday evening into
Thursday evening.

Outside of Continental Divide locations(where light precipitation
will be possible at times), project that the remainder of the
forecast district should experience dry conditions from Saturday
evening into Monday as dry, gusty and warm southwesterly upper
flow interacts with varying degrees of eastern Colorado surface
lee-side troughing. Fire weather highlights will most be likely
needed again Sunday and Monday due to the projected conditions.

Meteorological pattern then changes from later Monday(where even
some thunder is anticipated) into at least Thursday evening as
two upper systems interact with moist north-northeasterly surface
surges during this time-frame.

As of this discussion, it appears that the highest potential for
more widespread precipitation(including the potential for some
accumulating snow/blowing snow) over the forecast district during
the longer term should be realized from Monday evening into
Tuesday evening and then again on Thursday. As always, WFO Pueblo
will monitor closely.

Finally, warmest temperatures during the longer term are
expected from Saturday evening into Monday, while coolest
conditions should be realized from Tuesday into Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs at all terminals, with any
patchy blowing dust at KPUB and KALS subsiding this evening.
Strong west winds, with gusts ranging from 35 to 45 kts, will
continue at all terminal forecast sites until early evening, with
much lighter winds overnight. On Saturday, winds will become gusty
once again, with S-SE winds gusting to 25 kts at KPUB and KCOS,
while S-SW gust to 20 kts at KALS. Over the mountains, -shsn
should end this evening, with clearing skies and VFR conditions
most locations by early Saturday morning.



Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ226>237.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ227>233.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ084>088.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ060-


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