Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 191442

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Valid 191700Z - 201200Z


Only minor adjustments have been made to the critical area to
include all of the TX Big Bend area based on latest guidance.
Previous forecast is on track. See discussion below for more

..Leitman.. 03/19/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/

A compact shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains
early this morning will move eastward to the TN Valley by this
evening. 40-50 kt mid-level westerly winds will remain over much of
the southern High Plains today, and a low-amplitude shortwave trough
with slightly stronger mid-level winds will move over this region
this afternoon. At the surface, a low across southwestern KS and the
OK Panhandle early this morning will develop quickly eastward into
KY/TN by this evening, with a trailing cold front sweeping
southeastward off the TX Coast and over the Gulf of Mexico later
this morning.

...Portions of the Southern High Plains into Deep South TX...
Strong/gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph will
occur today across portions of the southern High Plains into deep
south TX. The most likely area for a critical combination of winds
around 20-25 mph and RH values of 15-25% to develop will be from
southeastern NM into parts of west, central, and south TX. Here, dry
to very dry fuels are generally present owing to a lack of recent
meaningful precipitation, which should help support large fire
spread. Due to an enhanced surface pressure gradient and a
well-mixed boundary layer behind the cold front, critical conditions
may be ongoing at the start of the period across part of
west-central TX, where sustained winds of 20-25 mph should overlap
lowered RH values of 15-20%. Elevated conditions will occur for a
greater portion of the southern Plains into deep south TX
surrounding the critical area, but slightly lower forecast wind
speeds and/or marginally reduced RH values preclude an even larger
critical delineation at this time.

...Please see for graphic product...

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