Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 220540
SWODY2
SPC AC 220540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible Monday from the Tennessee Valley through
the Florida Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible
across the central High Plains.

...Discussion...
Vertically stacked cyclone initially centered over the Mid-South
will slowly move eastward on Monday, likely reaching middle TN by
12Z Tuesday. Primary surface low associated with this system will
remain beneath the upper cyclone but a secondary low at the triple
point will move from southern AL northeastward across GA and into
SC. The anticipated track of this secondary low will confine the
warm sector to central/southern GA and adjacent portions of
southeast SC. Widespread warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms will likely impede surface heating, tempering overall
instability and leading to a predominance of elevated storms. In
addition to modest instability, mid-level flow will weaken
throughout the period, further lessening the chances of a storm
capable of severe weather. Best chance for a severe thunderstorm in
this part of the country will be across the central and eastern FL
Peninsula as the surface trough moves through. However, as in areas
farther north, generally weak flow will keep severe prospects low,
precluding the need for any outlook probabilities.

Farther west, a cold front (attendant to shortwave trough moving
into the northern/central Plains) will encourage convective
development as it moves southeastward across the warm and deeply
mixed airmass across the central High Plains. Given the high-based
character of these storms, a few strong gusts may occur but current
expectation is for damaging wind gusts to be very isolated,
precluding the need for severe probabilities.

..Mosier.. 04/22/2018

$$



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