Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200645
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
145 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 20/1200 UTC THRU JAN 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

GREAT BASIN---SOUTHWEST---CENTRAL ROCKIES

HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM
THAT WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST---CENTRAL
ROCKIES DAY 1---EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 2
AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER LAKES REGION DURING DAY 3.  FOR THE
DAY 1 PERIOD---HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE FROM THE WASATCH/UINTA---THRU
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM COLORADO INTO
MUCH OF WYOMING.  SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER INFORMATION

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A RELATIVELY WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY DAY 1---FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER NORTHEAST
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
CANADIAN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE DAY 1.  GENERALLY LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WASHINGTON-OREGON FROM THE CASCADES TO THE
COAST EARLY DAY 1 WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MORE ORGANIZED FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION AREA AFFECTING THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND APPROACHING THE COASTAL AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS FAR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  HEAVIEST PRECIP TOTALS DAY 1
WILL BE OVER THE OLYMPIC RANGE WHERE 2-3"+ TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE---WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS ELSEWHERE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM THE WASHINGTON-OREGON CASCADES TO THE OREGON-WA
COAST RANGE.

EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY

WEAK ONSHORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DAY 1 OFF THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME
AS A WEAK CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN LA PUSHES EASTWARD
ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST.  GIVEN THE WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT---EXPECT ANY SCATTERED PRECIP FROM EAST TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE---WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT DETAILS.

NORTHERN NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QB WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
MARITIMES DAY 1.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SAT/EARLY SUNDAY.
POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIP/SNOWFALL
TOTALS FROM NORTHERN NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 494611 503629 510647 513657 517669 519682 520686 521691
      523704 522712 521718 518724 514731 508739 503746 491755
      488755 484751 482748 482743 487737 489734 490729 487723
      483722 478723 464720 448729 443727 440721 439717 441713
      445705 451701 456695 460692 462692 465689 469691 470695
      472696 474692 473685 471678 469674 466670 464665 461657
      457650 455643 456637 459624
 0.01 535215 537207 538199 537193 536188 532181 530177 528174
      526169 523166 517160 506150 505153 510162 511165 509167
      501163 497162 493160 487153 488150 492150 495149 495145
      491136 484130 481127 478126 474125 471125 469130 470135
      472140 477141 479143 479146 478149 475150 473148 470144
      466142 459143 457146 457150 461158 464161 466164 469169
      472171 477172 481174 483177 489183 494185 497188 502194
      507200 518214 522221 528223 533219 535215
 0.01 520266 522259 522251 522245 520240 517232 513224 507217
      500210 493205 485204 470209 463210 456213 427222 423222
      423227 424233 421234 416233 413235 407239 405243 405250
      409258 411262 414263 423266 443271 445275 445279 447288
      451297 454307 459314 461316 464316 468315 471312 477307
      483302 485300 487299 489301 492303 495301 502296 507292
      512284 517274 520266
 0.01 463178 461175 458177 456174 455171 451171 452176 452180
      448180 450185 451185 455184 459182 462178 463178
 0.01 454752 453742 452738 451738 444739 440740 439742 432744
      430750 432757 435763 438765 442759 443757 446756 451755
      454752
 0.01 450097 449094 447092 440091 438089 438083 442082 446082
      450080 449073 449062 448053 448042 447032 446021 447015
      448010 452976 451973 447971 445971 443973 438978 433985
      426994 423999 418005 409016 404019 397023 394028 392034
      388040 383044 371049 366049 363050 357053 344055 329053
      324054 321056 322057 326059 329061 334061 338067 339069
      338072 333074 320076 316077 314079 309085 305092 305102
      307107 310113 314116 320115 327114 334118 337119 339123
      344129 350139 354143 358149 361154 363157 367158 374155
      381155 389155 394154 397148 399141 400136 403133 407128
      412122 417117 426110 437105 445101 450097
 0.01 419919 418912 417905 414902 410905 408910 403912 400915
      396920 394924 391927 389929 389933 391938 394942 398943
      403947 405950 409952 411947 414935 417929 418924 419919
 0.01 401797 400795 397795 391796 381802 379807 382814 383820
      384827 380839 378844 379852 379857 378859 378869 372877
      368882 367887 365900 366909 371909 375907 376904 375900
      375896 376891 376884 377880 379880 382882 392886 397876
      398871 398862 397846 395814 399804 401797
 0.01 368115 367110 364108 361105 357102 352100 349098 348103
      350108 352110 355113 360114 365115 368115
 0.01 357187 355184 353183 352183 351184 350185 349185 347187
      347189 346191 346194 348194 349192 349190 351188 353187
      355187 357187 357187
 0.01 359930 359925 357920 354916 350916 343920 334921 330919
      324919 320917 316914 314911 313906 313894 313888 310885
      307882 303880 297881 294889 295893 295896 293897 289899
      287903 284920 276938 274945 270953 268956 264958 256962
      255966 257968 266968 274964 280964 283964 285966 290964
      292962 293965 291968 291974 292979 293986 295990 298989
      300986 300975 304966 309959 319948 323945 327944 336946
      342951 343951 346948 349942 354938 359930
 0.01 331171 331166 328163 324161 320159 317157 311156 308155
      307160 310163 314166 317169 322170 327172 330171 331171
 0.01 295801 294797 292795 290794 288792 284792 282791 280792
      278794 279797 280800 282802 285803 287804 289803 292802
      295801
 0.25 517267 518262 518256 516248 513236 506223 503218 499214
      486210 479210 474212 469214 463215 458217 456219 457222
      460225 464226 467227 465228 455232 450234 445239 444243
      447245 453247 454251 452254 451259 452262 455268 458272
      461279 461286 461293 463299 469301 473298 482292 488291
      493290 499290 503288 508284 512278 517267
 0.25 486228 486226 484225 482227 483229 485228 486228
 0.25 471223 471222 469223 468225 468226 470225 471223
 0.25 439059 440045 440038 438034 434028 431026 427027 421032
      415039 412048 410056 405063 401066 398068 393067 389067
      385072 382071 379067 372062 367062 364064 362067 362070
      367077 372084 374088 377089 379088 382086 384088 384090
      385093 387094 390097 393100 397106 396110 394112 379119
      373123 370126 371131 372140 375145 380144 385142 388139
      389134 392124 395120 399118 406117 409117 412113 416106
      420097 423094 428094 430094 432090 434079 437073 439059
 0.25 367124 367122 366121 365120 363119 361121 363122 364123
      365124 366124 367124
 0.25 357122 356118 353115 348110 344105 344100 342096 340092
      337089 335085 332084 332088 334091 335095 334102 334105
      335107 340113 347119 350123 355124 357122
 0.50 516264 516258 514250 512242 502222 499217 496215 492217
      491220 492228 493234 494237 492238 488236 482237 480231
      477229 469235 465236 465240 468244 470248 469254 467257
      465265 465272 468276 472279 476281 480282 487283 493285
      497285 504284 508280 511276 515266 516264
 0.50 431066 432061 432058 431054 430051 427050 425051 422053
      422058 421062 421067 422072 423074 424077 426077 428075
      429072 431068 431066
 0.50 411103 412101 411099 411096 411094 410091 409089 407090
      406091 406093 406095 406098 406100 405102 406104 406105
      407106 409107 410105 411104 411103
 0.50 378078 378076 379074 378072 378071 376069 375066 373065
      371064 369066 370068 371069 371071 372073 373073 373075
      374077 374078 375080 376080 377079 378078
 0.50 352119 353117 352117 351115 350115 349114 347113 346114
      347115 348116 349117 350118 352119 352119
 0.50 344109 343107 343106 341107 342109 342110 344110 344109
 0.50 339102 340100 340098 340097 339098 339100 339102 339102
 1.00 506276 508263 509258 509251 508242 504235 500227 496222
      494224 494227 495233 498240 499244 499248 497249 492243
      489240 485240 483243 481242 480237 477233 473234 473240
      475243 477247 478251 479260 483266 495276 499278 503279
      506276
 1.50 502275 503267 501261 498255 494249 491245 488243 486243
      485248 484253 486259 490265 494269 499273 502275
 1.50 503238 502238 501235 500232 499229 497227 496229 496231
      497232 497234 498235 499237 501239 502240 503238
 2.00 500269 500266 499261 498258 497255 495253 494251 492248
      489246 487248 487250 487254 488257 490260 492263 493265
      496267 498269 500269
 3.00 497262 497260 496258 496257 495255 494254 494253 492251
      492250 491250 490251 490252 491255 491256 492258 493259
      494261 495262 495263 497262

$$





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