Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 191913
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 20/0000 UTC THRU JAN 21/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

AS ONE CLOSED LOW WEAKENS...ANOTHER WILL MOVE TO OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE ONSHORE UPSLOPE
FLOW...AND THUS ALSO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE SHOWERY
COASTAL CONDITIONS. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS RESULTED IN
A MULTI MODEL BLEND BEING USED FOR QPF.

...GREAT BASIN...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA TONIGHT TAKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT WITH TIME...WITH THIS INCREASING ASCENT INTERACTING WITH A
MOISTURE PLUME LEFT OVER FROM THE INLAND MOVING PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. THUS ANTICIPATE WE WILL SEE AN EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND STRETCHING FROM AZ/NV/UT INTO
WY. SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED...BUT OVERALL
AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WPC QPF FOLLOWS
A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE. AFTER DYNAMIC
DOWNSCALING...THIS QPF ENDS UP LOOKING CLOSE TO THE 12Z HREF MEAN.

...SOUTH TEXAS...

LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY UNDERNEATH THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
QPF WITH THIS FEATURE.

CHENARD


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 21/00Z
 0.01 493611 499622 503633 509648 513662 518676 521686 525705
      527712 528721 530739 531753 528771 525786 523799 521811
      521822 521830 520837 518845 516850 513856 512859 508862
      503862 497862 494866 489869 481874 478872 477867 475864
      475859 475849 476842 475833 474826 472818 469806 460780
      455767 454754 454737 455731 455727 453726 447727 449723
      448719 446715 442713 447709 451704 456701 459695 458687
      456682 454675 454669 454664 453661 449656 447650 448645
      451640 453635 452627
 0.01 540208 539196 536192 534188 531178 529165 526160 523157
      520156 514150 506148 474123 471125 469131 469136 470140
      467142 464141 462139 459135 456132 454129 456125 458113
      458106 458101 457087 457082 457075 459065 460052 458042
      455041 453039 449036 448034 447030 446014 444004 442999
      439999 435010 433016 430020 422039 417047 414050 413056
      410059 405058 400064 397067 393066 390064 388065 387072
      384075 382072 380067 377065 373062 370062 368064 365074
      367085 366089 363088 359086 354084 351088 349094 346095
      339088 335085 332088 330092 328095 323095 320094 319096
      316100 313101 306106 304108 305112 314121 321118 326116
      331117 336120 339123 344131 350137 358143 360146 359150
      359156 362161 366166 363170 362173 363178 364180 363182
      353181 349182 347181 345174 342166 327160 318157 313158
      312161 317169 326173 335177 340180 343184 346186 345193
      346199 351202 386182 409155 413151 416146 420135 425127
      427122 428120 431119 435118 436119 440120 442123 443129
      442136 443141 445146 448153 452159 454162 458164 460169
      458174 452173 449177 444186 449192 454189 460183 463179
      464175 467175 471175 474180 481191 480198 477201 471205
      468207 463206 456211 442215 440214 437215 433218 425220
      418226 415232 411233 402238 392239 390242 387250 388253
      393255 403257 414260 421259 426261 427264 425275 413281
      407284 403290 402294 403297 406300 417305 429309 439315
      444318 449320 457321 467319 473316 482315 487311 500301
      505298 510291 517274 519266 519260 519250 518244 515234
      510225 505216 504212 503208 505206 507203 510205 513210
      520218 523220 525220 528218 534215 536217 538215
 0.01 448746 447739 444739 440740 442743 443747 438750 437755
      435758 437761 441760 442754 443751 445749 448746 448746
 0.01 450085 450083 449080 448080 446081 445082 444084 444087
      445088 447087 449086 450085
 0.01 413221 415208 413198 408191 401194 400198 396202 391201
      389201 388203 393210 396212 400213 403210 406206 408210
      408218 409222 411223 413221
 0.01 348210 348209 346207 345206 343204 341203 340202 338201
      338200 336200 336202 336203 337205 337206 338207 339208
      340209 342209 344211 346210 348210 348210
 0.01 360943 359929 357919 354916 351916 350918 342923 339926
      337930 335934 332936 328940 325939 327937 328932 326926
      314917 307917 304914 301914 302916 302920 299924 296924
      294922 292917 290912 293908 291904 286904 280904 277906
      272912 251917 246924 243932 238942 233950 231960 232970
      235974 241974 252972 261971 266971 269974 273977 278979
      284979 288981 292983 297983 303979 307976 311972 315969
      319967 337963 343963 346960 349955 349947 348941 351937
      354936 355939 355943 360943
 0.01 351901 351897 351894 347894 345895 342897 340899 338899
      337904 337906 339906 340908 342906 346906 348906 350903
      351901
 0.01 332954 330952 328952 327954 328956 330956 332954
 0.01 301791 300789 296789 291788 284788 276790 273794 274800
      278805 283805 289802 294799 297795 301791
 0.25 528204 527193 522185 516179 509173 502171 495176 495179
      497184 505189 511195 519201 526205 528204
 0.25 515269 516262 516258 514249 510238 506229 500213 497209
      494206 485205 477206 472209 463211 456215 449217 442217
      438219 434223 434225 434232 431236 428237 422238 417240
      417244 425249 429250 432249 438248 444247 448248 458250
      466251 472254 475259 475265 471275 467283 462289 457299
      455304 455309 457313 461313 467311 480302 487300 492296
      500290 505286 509284 511279 515269
 0.25 505675 505670 504665 502656 499647 496640 488634 486632
      483633 482637 481642 481650 478655 473668 472675 473682
      476691 477696 477702 476704 472705 466706 464708 465714
      467719 471726 473732 472742 473753 475763 476772 478780
      483784 486789 489790 492788 494780 495771 500739 502731
      502724 502711 502702 505675
 0.25 489234 489231 487229 485227 482225 481223 478222 475224
      475225 478227 480229 482232 483235 485235 487236 488236
      489234
 0.25 491170 491165 491162 489160 488157 485155 482154 479155
      477157 475159 474161 475164 478166 481167 482168 486170
      489170 491170
 0.25 487139 486137 484136 484135 482135 481134 480135 479135
      478137 479138 480139 482140 483140 483141 484141 485141
      487139
 0.25 441074 441070 440066 437058 436054 432054 426058 422078
      420089 418093 416090 412084 409082 405083 401090 403094
      404100 402105 400108 396112 393115 388116 380117 375122
      370123 366120 360119 357122 357125 360127 364128 366127
      369128 371147 373149 378150 381151 382155 381163 385164
      389164 395159 399155 404148 406143 406137 412126 414122
      417120 422112 422106 422100 425098 428098 432097 433092
      433087 434082 438078 441074
 0.25 398104 397101 397099 396097 395096 394094 394093 392093
      391096 390098 392100 393102 395103 396103 397104 398104
 0.25 388086 386084 385086 386088 387087 388086
 0.25 379080 379078 379076 378073 377071 376070 374071 374073
      374075 374077 373080 374081 375082 376082 377082 379080
 0.25 351188 351187 349187 349188 348190 348192 348193 350192
      350190 351189 351188
 0.25 353119 353117 352117 351117 351115 349114 348114 349117
      350119 352120 353119
 0.25 345112 345109 344107 343105 343103 343102 343100 342098
      342097 340096 340095 339095 339098 340100 340102 341104
      341107 341109 342110 343111 344113 345112
 0.25 333167 332166 330165 329165 328166 330168 332168 333167
 0.25 295954 293948 288944 284941 278939 274936 268934 262934
      254935 246943 241952 239959 241966 247967 254965 266963
      279962 286960 291958 295954
 0.50 513263 513257 512252 510244 506234 501225 498217 494212
      488209 483208 476209 469213 463215 455219 455221 457224
      460226 468226 473222 476220 481221 489226 497239 502248
      503254 501256 492243 488239 484240 479233 450234 447236
      446239 448241 453242 462242 470240 476245 481250 485261
      485267 487272 491279 496283 504283 508279 509275 510269
      513263
 0.50 486712 485710 485708 484710 483711 482713 481716 479716
      477716 477717 479717 481716 482716 484715 485713 486712
 0.50 415113 413108 412103 411098 410091 409087 407088 405090
      405093 405100 405107 403114 403117 406120 410117 412115
      415113
 0.50 401146 400141 397138 395137 393133 391124 387123 384125
      381133 380138 377136 376134 375139 376141 380144 388146
      393151 397149 401146
 0.50 400122 401120 401119 401118 399117 399118 399120 399121
      400122 400123 400122
 0.50 376130 375127 374130 376130
 0.50 267956 267949 265946 262943 258941 254941 250943 247945
      245950 244954 246957 250959 254960 259961 264960 266957
      267956
 1.00 504273 504268 502264 499260 496256 494252 491248 489248
      489252 490258 492263 493267 496272 499275 503275 504273
 1.00 503238 502238 502235 501234 501233 500230 499227 498224
      497224 496222 494223 493225 494227 494228 494231 495231
      496233 496234 498236 499237 501239 502239 503238
 1.00 491219 490217 490216 489213 487212 486211 484211 483212
      482212 480213 479216 480216 481219 483220 484221 486221
      488221 490219 491219
 1.00 261956 261954 261952 261951 259950 258949 257949 255949
      254949 253950 252950 251952 250953 250954 251956 252956
      254956 255956 257956 259956 261956 261956

$$





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