Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 140658
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 14/1200 UTC THRU NOV 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT EJECTED INLAND
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY---ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS WILL RE-AMPLIFY THE MEAN CLOSED LOW POSITION OFF THE
SW COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA/VANCOUVER ISLAND DAY 1.  THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL HELP FOCUS STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  PW VALUES IN THIS
ONSHORE FLOW AXIS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANOMALOUS---GENERAL AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.  HOWEVER---AS THE CLOSED LOW
AMPLIFIES---THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL REMAIN FOCUSED INTO PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST
RANGE---NORTHWARD INTO THE OLYMPIC RANGE AND INTO THE NORTHERN
WASHINGTON CASCADES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS---ESPECIALLY INTO THE
OLYMPIC RANGE WHICH WILL HAVE THE GREATEST UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO
THE UVVS.  MAX PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE 5-8"+ RANGE POSSIBLE IN THE
OLYMPIC RANGE--2 TO 4" SOUTH OF THIS INTO THE NORTHERN OREGON
COAST RANGE AND 1 TO 2" OVER THE NORTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATE REACH THE .25-50"+ RANGE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING FROM THE OLYMPIC RANGE SOUTH TO
THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  ACROSS THESE AREAS---RUNOFF
ISSUES MAY DEVELOP WITH A MARGINAL RISK AREA MAINTAINED IN THE
UPCOMING DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK.

NORTHERN ROCKIES

THE ABOVE MENTIONED LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS THAT EJECTED OUT OF
THE MEAN TROF POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS/SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM FAR EASTERN
ID...NORTHWEST WY AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN MT.

UPPER LAKES---UPPER MS VALLEY---MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ABOVE
AVERAGE PW VALUES NORTHEASTWARD DAY 1 FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY---MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
AND THE UPPER LAKES REGION.  PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY
AND MID MS VALLEY WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RATHER WEAK FOR
MOST OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROF PUSHING
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY DAY 1 REACHES THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING---PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN THIS
ABOVE AVERAGE PW AXIS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY---MID TO UPPER MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES.  AREAL AVERAGE .10-.25"+ AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA

THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL DAY 1 ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS---LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST---BUT WITH STRENGTHENING OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD.  THIS IS RESULTING IN STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS THAN IN PAST DAYS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSED EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RAIN BANDS
IMPACTING THIS REGION.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA---WITH
THIS POTENTIAL AGAIN OCCURRING THIS PERIOD.  THE LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING  MAX TOTALS IN THE 3-5"+ WHICH SEEM REASONABLE
GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER MARTIN COUNTY.
 NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS---BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS WHERE
THESE BANDS SET UP.  A MARGINAL RISK WAS ADDED TO THE DAY 1
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED REGIONS.

ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 537204 537199 536196 533190 529174 526168 521163 517157
      511153 502147 492136 488131 481127 475125 473123 471125
      469130 469134 470136 473140 476141 480146 479149 476150
      471145 470142 466141 462136 460128 464120 466118 466114
      467103 470096 472089 472071 469058 466065 463071 462076
      460079 457080 455078 449074 446069 440067 436071 434073
      436074 440074 443076 448081 451087 450090 448092 440090
      435092 430088 425084 423087 425095 427099 424101 420102
      419105 420108 420112 414114 412115 413117 416123 417130
      416136 414141 412143 409144 398150 398157 401163 405168
      408171 410170 415165 420159 424155 425147 426135 429128
      432122 436117 441119 441127 438134 437138 435143 435148
      436155 439158 442159 450161 456160 458157 462157 472165
      483173 488176 492177 490180 486184 483189 482195 481201
      478202 475205 469206 464208 459213 447216 435218 429219
      427221 429223 431226 437229 443228 453223 456223 457226
      456229 454231 449232 444236 440242 434243 422236 418234
      416235 416238 414240 407240 404240 400237 398234 396232
      393232 391234 390237 393240 399241 400254 404259 410263
      424265 424274 427279 438288 444292 452295 453298 457299
      460300 463300 470302 473301 476302 479301 482301 486300
      491300 497297 507292 511286 515281 518271 520262 520252
      519242 515230 514226 514220 516216 518214 521219 523221
      526222 530221 533217 535208 537204
 0.01 496886 494869 491853 487838 482826 479820 475815 471813
      466811 459810 454811 449814 445817 433838 427848 422852
      420855 417856 400871 392877 385879 381882 376884 371889
      368893 367896 366900 364914 364918 361920 355922 350923
      346927 342932 340939 338941 338946 338950 339957 342963
      344967 348972 359976 361980 362982 368984 375984 378984
      380982 387972 390968 393963 397959 400952 403952 405950
      410949 457935 462932 469932 482932 486932 487929 491924
      491916 494911 496886
 0.01 435785 435780 435775 434770 433768 431765 429764 426765
      427769 428772 429776 430781 432783 433786 435785
 0.01 423808 423806 423803 422801 422799 421796 420796 418796
      418797 416799 416800 416802 416804 417807 418809 419809
      421809 422809 423808
 0.01 392207 392204 391201 388199 386196 385194 382193 380191
      378189 376189 375193 375196 377199 380200 382202 385204
      386206 390207 392207
 0.01 302802 301798 300796 295792 287786 276783 261785 255787
      251791 249792 248796 248800 255810 267811 273812 279814
      293813 297811 297809 300804 302802
 0.01 299000 297997 293997 290995 286995 277994 270991 262989
      258990 258994 262000 267003 276004 284006 291008 297005
      299000
 0.25 528199 527186 526180 525174 522170 519167 515171 511168
      506168 503171 501177 498180 495184 497195 495202 490194
      487196 485202 478207 471211 464216 462219 461227 454233
      447236 441244 435252 432255 434258 441264 443268 447266
      450263 454261 462260 470259 479261 486267 494273 501280
      505282 507278 507272 508265 511265 514264 515261 514235
      511226 507216 503206 504200 507197 511199 515203 518206
      521208 525204 528199
 0.25 498247 497244 496241 494238 493235 491232 490230 487230
      485233 488234 490237 492240 493243 495245 496247 498247
 0.25 472848 471843 469838 467834 464829 461827 457827 456832
      456838 456842 457849 460854 462857 465855 468852 471849
      472848
 0.25 455886 454881 451877 448877 446882 445887 446894 447899
      445902 446905 449901 451897 453893 454888 455886
 0.25 445111 447109 446106 446105 444104 444103 442102 441102
      440103 439105 439108 440109 442110 443111 445111 445111
 0.25 447908 446907 445908 445909 446909 447908
 0.25 390936 390931 389928 386927 384927 382927 380929 378931
      377934 375938 374940 375944 377945 380945 382943 384942
      386940 388938 390936
 0.25 294801 291795 285791 278790 269791 260792 255797 256803
      263806 271808 276810 284811 287810 291808 294802 294801
 0.50 523195 523189 522182 521178 516177 513173 509172 508180
      509186 512190 515192 519196 522197 523195
 0.50 512258 513247 513239 511233 509227 504214 500209 498207
      495205 491201 489199 487203 479208 474212 473214 473218
      478222 483224 489228 492232 495239 498244 504255 508259
      510260 512258
 0.50 504273 505268 504262 500255 495248 491240 489236 485234
      482231 481226 478223 474224 468227 455233 448237 443245
      439252 439257 442260 449259 457258 464256 471255 475256
      480258 487263 499274 503275 504273
 0.50 291803 291799 289797 284795 279794 271794 264794 258797
      257801 259803 263804 269805 274807 280809 286809 290805
      291803
 1.00 509254 509247 509238 506227 502215 500211 495208 489206
      485207 477213 476216 478218 483221 488223 491227 496238
      503246 509254 509254
 1.00 501267 498260 495253 489239 487237 483237 480229 478226
      475227 470230 464231 459234 454236 449240 445246 443248
      443252 450252 456253 463253 468252 474251 482253 492262
      497266 499268 501267
 1.00 287804 285801 281799 277798 273797 268797 263798 261801
      263802 269804 272805 276806 280807 285806 287804
 1.50 505242 503232 502222 500214 497211 493210 489209 485209
      479213 479216 481217 483219 486220 490219 492219 492224
      494233 499239 505242
 1.50 494257 490244 481234 479228 475229 471231 466232 460235
      456236 448244 446247 446250 451249 456248 463250 474248
      479248 485250 489255 491257 493258 494257
 1.50 279803 278802 276801 275801 274803 276803 278804 279803
 2.00 501235 500230 500227 500222 500219 499215 496213 494215
      493220 493224 493227 494230 495233 498236 501235
 2.00 488218 490216 490214 489213 487212 486213 485213 484215
      485216 485217 486219 488218 488218
 2.00 482245 481236 479231 477229 475230 469233 464233 460237
      456239 452245 455246 457245 463248 469246 474245 479245
      482245
 3.00 497231 498229 497226 496224 495223 494223 494225 495228
      495230 496231 496232 497231
 3.00 480241 480239 479233 478230 475231 473233 470235 469237
      467238 463238 462240 464242 466242 470241 472241 475242
      478243 480241
 4.00 478241 479238 479236 478233 478232 476232 475232 474233
      473234 472236 473239 474239 475240 477241 478241 478241
 5.00 478238 478236 478233 476233 474234 474236 474237 475239
      477239 478238
 6.00 477238 478235 477235 476234 475235 475237 475238 477238
      477238

$$





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