Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 131800
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1259 PM EST MON NOV 13 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 14/0000 UTC THRU NOV 15/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA---PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES

MODELS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH INITIAL CLOSED LOW ALONG
THE WA COAST OPENING UP AND SHEARING RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/SW CANADA WHILE A DEEPER CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DROP SEWD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OFF THE SW BC COAST BY
THE END OF THE DAY 1 PD.  MODEL QPFS LIKEWISE ARE REASONABLY
SIMILAR...INDICATING A BAND OF SHOWERS/HIER LEVEL SNOW SHOWERS
PUSHING RAPIDLY ACRS THE PAC NW..NRN CA MTNS..AND NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION MON NIGHT WITH DECREASING INTENSITIES AS
MID/UPR FORCING RAPIDLY WEAKENS.  BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD THE NRN OREGON AND ESPECIALLY
THE WASHINGTON COAST ON TUES WITH 85H SW FLOW INCREASING TO 40 TO
50 KTS.  PWS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH..BUT SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
DECENT UPSLOPE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AND NRN CASCADES GIVEN
THE STG LOW LEVEL SWLY UPSLOPE CONDS.  MANUAL QPF STAYED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND LATEST HREF MEAN GIVEN GOOD RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

FLORIDA

MDTLY STG NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATRN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACRS
FL WITH TYPICAL POST FRONTAL FLOW FAVORING SOME NARROW RAIN BANDS
THAT WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE E COAST OF FL..SOME WHICH COULD
BE LOCALL HEAVY WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY EXTENDS ONSHORE.   A WEAK
S/WV IS FCST TO DROP SEWD ACRS THE SE STATES ON TUES THAT MAY AID
LIFT LATER TUES.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH QPF DETAILS
HERE..THOUGH TREND OF HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTS BEEFING UP AMOUNTS
FROM CONTINUITY...AND LATEST DAY 1 QPF REFLECTS THAT.  STILL KEPT
AMOUNTS RATHER CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE SPREAD..BUT THERE ARE
SEVERAL HI RES MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY ISOLD
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS HERE.

ELSEWHERE...
SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BROAD RETURN
FLOW/WAA PATRN FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/LIMITED
HEATING AREAL AVG AMOUNTS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE .10" OR LESS
MOST AREAS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 15/00Z
 0.01 521269 524258 525251 524247 520238 516229 512220 515215
      517214 521216 525217 529216 531212 533206 534198 533187
      531176 530171 527167 521161 513154 501142 490131 483126
      479124 475121 472121 469122 467120 469118 471114 473108
      472103 467102 463103 459102 457098 455093 453092 445092
      442091 439093 434093 431090 427087 424088 424091 425096
      427099 425102 421104 421108 421113 417113 415116 416118
      420121 422132 421138 419143 413152 410153 408152 405156
      407159 408165 406169 405178 405184 408187 411187 415186
      417182 421179 424179 425183 424187 424190 426191 423196
      420198 414198 412199 409203 407207 404206 388196 381191
      376189 374193 374196 373201 372204 374209 370217 365222
      359226 355229 358230 361231 364231 364234 363238 365239
      369239 375234 384232 388234 391235 391238 392242 395244
      401249 412253 421253 425253 429255 438259 441269 443273
      446276 452281 460287 462289 467291 476294 480293 485295
      495297 498297 502296 507294 512290 519275
 0.01 496881 496876 494873 491867 485852 481847 476842 473840
      469841 463846 460852 457858 453864 449870 444875 440880
      435885 429890 405905 403908 399908 392913 378918 366922
      351925 345929 343932 344936 346938 345943 343949 341952
      340957 339963 340967 339970 335977 333980 333984 337990
      341993 342993 350989 354985 359983 365980 367979 369981
      369985 375990 377987 379983 387968 393965 396961 402956
      404954 403949 398946 402938 406933 412929 418927 426926
      434926 438928 436930 450936 442945 442947 446947 452945
      458944 460945 463942 464927 466923 465917 463914 460912
      459884 464878 468875 473875 479878 486880 488882 492882
      496881
 0.01 482193 480186 477179 473174 467170 465167 462169 461173
      463176 461180 457187 453191 450193 447192 444193 442196
      438195 435196 434206 439211 446212 453212 463205 468204
      474201 479198 482193
 0.01 454656 451651 448647 444647 439651 436654 434656 432655
      421653 416653 410653 408653 404654 400656 388660 378666
      373669 371674 368680 367686 367698 370703 374707 383711
      388712 394713 404713 418711 423709 428706 435696 439687
      443681 446676 450667 454656
 0.01 457832 456829 455823 452813 451810 448807 444800 443800
      441803 439807 436808 435812 437816 444816 448822 452831
      455835 457832
 0.01 451078 451076 451075 450075 448073 448072 446072 445072
      443070 441069 440071 438071 440072 441072 443072 444075
      446075 448077 448078 449078 451078 451078
 0.01 447126 446121 444119 441118 438118 434119 435124 433128
      435132 438131 440131 443130 445128 447126
 0.01 440173 440171 439169 438170 437170 436172 436174 437177
      438175 439175 440173
 0.01 437775 436768 433765 428763 424762 422766 424770 430781
      430784 427785 424786 419794 417800 416803 417805 419809
      422804 424800 425794 427788 430786 433787 436780 437775
 0.01 411725 411721 409718 407717 404716 400717 397718 395719
      393722 393727 394731 395734 398736 401735 403734 406732
      408731 410728 411725
 0.01 401223 400222 399221 397220 395218 394219 392219 390219
      388218 387219 386221 387223 389224 390227 392227 394226
      396225 398226 399225 400224 401223
 0.01 302804 301800 299798 292795 288791 280789 278788 273788
      263789 257793 251797 245800 239804 236810 236814 238816
      243816 245814 251817 253814 253810 252808 256806 271809
      278810 284813 293813 297811 299809 302804
 0.01 298006 297004 293003 288003 286001 277000 270997 263996
      257990 254984 252982 248981 241982 236983 234985 232988
      233993 235996 237995 245995 251998 262008 276012 283014
      287014 291012 295010 298006
 0.25 517267 518260 517253 515245 514240 509227 507221 504216
      498207 493203 487201 483201 478205 473207 470210 461213
      452220 450222 453226 452230 451233 446234 443238 442242
      445249 449253 452256 458259 469264 481269 491276 499282
      505283 508280 517267
 0.25 520194 520188 519184 515176 510168 507165 505163 499166
      494164 491165 487165 485161 481159 477158 472153 469149
      467145 464143 461145 461149 464153 468159 472161 475161
      478162 481165 484168 487172 493176 500176 505182 512188
      516193 520194
 0.25 482227 482226 481224 479223 478222 477222 477224 478225
      479226 480227 482227 482227
 0.25 491145 490140 489137 487134 486133 483130 481129 478129
      476130 474131 472133 471138 473140 477141 480141 483143
      485144 488146 491145
 0.25 452164 453159 451156 448155 446155 444152 442149 440148
      438148 438153 438156 441158 444158 447160 449163 450164
      452164
 0.25 432224 432222 431221 429221 428221 427222 426223 427223
      428225 430225 432225 432224
 0.25 427242 426240 426239 425237 423237 421236 420236 418236
      416236 415236 414237 413238 413240 413242 415243 417243
      418243 420244 422243 423243 424244 425243 427242
 0.25 410221 410218 408216 407215 405215 403216 404218 405219
      406221 407222 408222 409222 410221
 0.25 400216 401211 399208 397206 396204 393202 391201 387199
      384199 383202 384205 385207 388209 391210 394212 396213
      399215 400216
 0.25 401692 400685 399680 396676 391676 387680 385683 382687
      382692 385696 388698 393699 396699 400697 401692
 0.25 293807 292802 288800 285800 279799 275798 271797 267798
      263800 264803 267804 270804 275805 279807 282809 287810
      293807 293807
 0.50 513263 514256 513250 510238 507229 502218 496210 492207
      486206 478208 472215 467214 463216 459217 456221 458225
      462228 461232 459232 455234 448236 450240 455243 462250
      471254 479260 488266 495272 500277 502278 505274 507267
      513263
 0.50 491227 487225 483222 480220 475219 471220 469223 468228
      472228 477228 479228 481232 486235 488234 490232 491227
 0.50 398211 397208 395207 394205 393205 392204 391203 389202
      387202 386203 387204 387205 388206 390207 392208 393208
      394209 395210 396211 398211
 0.50 291805 291803 289802 287802 285803 283803 281804 281805
      282805 282806 284808 286809 287809 289808 290808 291806
      291805
 0.50 269800 268800 266800 267802 268801 269800
 1.00 505245 505239 503233 502229 500224 498220 495216 493216
      492220 493225 494230 495236 497240 500243 505245 505245
 1.00 501267 499261 497258 495252 494248 491244 488241 485243
      483247 485253 488256 491259 494263 497267 499268 501267
 1.00 488221 490219 489216 489214 487213 486213 484214 483214
      482215 481214 481212 479213 480216 482217 483219 485220
      486221 488221 488221
 1.00 482247 482242 482239 481235 479232 477230 476230 473231
      471233 469235 467235 465236 465241 466243 469244 472245
      476246 479247 482247
 1.00 462223 461221 459222 460224 462223
 1.50 500238 500235 500232 499229 499228 498227 498224 497224
      496222 495223 494225 495228 495230 495231 496234 497237
      498237 499238 500238
 1.50 480241 480239 480236 479235 478233 478232 476232 475232
      474233 473234 472236 472237 471238 471240 472241 473242
      475243 476243 477243 478243 480241
 2.00 479238 479237 479236 478234 476233 474234 474235 473237
      473239 475241 477241 478241 478240 479238

$$





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