Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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996
FXUS04 KWBC 181751
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1250 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 19/0000 UTC THRU JAN 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...WEST...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST RATES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA SIERRAS. ALSO LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHTER
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW/RAIN NEAR THIS FRONT FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. POST FRONTAL SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THIS REGION ALLOWING FOR A MULTI MODEL BLEND TO
BE USED FOR QPF...WITH MORE WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE HIGH RES RUNS.
OVERALL THIS RESULTS IN MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM CONTINUITY.

...SOUTH TEXAS...

A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING COASTAL FRONT NEAR THE
SOUTH TEXAS COAST. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR INLAND THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES CAN
GET. GENERALLY THINK THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE...WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS INLAND OVER SOUTH
TEXAS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR COASTAL LOCATIONS FOR
POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERALL THE 12Z SUITE OF HIGH
RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE 0Z RUNS...WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST SHIFT WITH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WENT FOR A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION...GENERALLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS AND HRW ARW/ARW2 AND THE 0Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD BRING
SOME 0.5"-0.75" AMOUNTS TO THE COAST...BUT KEEPS ANY 2-3" AMOUNTS
OFFSHORE.

CHENARD


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 525257 519247 514234 509223 504212 499203 492200 487200
      482202 477205 473208 471209 467208 462206 459201 458193
      463191 473189 480191 485190 495188 501190 504195 512203
      516208 521211 527213 531211 535207 536195 536188 535182
      533176 530170 524160 522157 518156 512153 505148 495140
      478123 478119 479115 481110 486098 487093 486085 487080
      489075 491068 488066 483069 481066 481060 474057 468058
      468055 465053 464056 462058 461059 459057 455066 452073
      450074 448072 443069 441069 441072 449081 449087 445090
      434091 429087 426085 423086 420089 420093 422094 425096
      424101 420103 416106 414107 411107 407102 403107 402114
      402119 400122 396133 393139 389143 385147 381153 376162
      373169 374175 375182 370181 359179 348182 345177 343171
      343168 340168 338169 339171 337172 333168 330166 330172
      334176 337181 342189 348200 352222 351230 346234 344231
      344233 342235 341239 343244 344249 352257 357260 363261
      370262 375264 385270 399274 403274 410276 417278 419281
      423282 427286 434289 443294 465308 472311 476311 486311
      491310 495312 498316 502318
 0.01 521821 521810 521798 520787 518777 517770 515759 511742
      505725 503720 499716 497714 494714 488717 485718 483717
      479716 477714 469706 466706 463707 461709 458709 452708
      449710 447712 449714 451717 451723 449725 446726 447727
      449731 447733 440735 442738 449737 451741 453740 454732
      456726 460720 462721 465720 469721 468724 468729 467734
      468743 466759 464767 464771 463775 463779 462782 462788
      459788 455786 452791 453800 456806 457810 459811 463811
      464816 466823 467829 466834 464850 465860 466868 469875
      471878 471882 469887 470890 471888 473885 476887 478896
      478901 477905 477915 477925 479924 482909 484907 484902
      487894 488887 491885 495884 509864 512859 514851 519837
      521821
 0.01 497967 497962 494957 492954 489956 486957 482959 479964
      477967 479969 484970 489970 494970 497968 497967
 0.01 448722 447718 445715 444712 443708 443706 443703 439703
      437705 436708 435712 435713 437716 439717 441719 443723
      445723 448722
 0.01 446746 444744 441746 436748 433751 433756 433763 435770
      437773 439774 441769 442764 444759 445754 446749 446746
 0.01 453850 454847 453847 451847 449847 449848 448850 446851
      448851 449853 450853 451853 451852 453850 453850
 0.01 399225 398223 396223 395224 395226 396226 397226 398225
      399225
 0.01 402190 403188 403186 402184 400184 399184 397184 395184
      393184 391184 390185 389185 388185 386187 386189 387190
      389190 390191 392191 394192 396193 397193 399193 401192
      402190
 0.01 299979 297955 295942 289933 282925 272922 251921 243928
      240931 238938 238945 236951 233954 230959 231974 236983
      239988 243990 248993 253995 261996 266996 271993 277992
      281990 292985 296982 299979
 0.25 517267 518262 518257 516248 513242 511234 505221 501214
      496210 489208 482207 477210 475212 475216 480222 486224
      489223 491225 492235 494241 489236 484235 481230 480227
      476225 473227 470227 467214 460213 454217 441217 436220
      429216 422205 419203 415203 411209 406207 402202 390196
      376188 371185 363184 357185 353186 351188 354192 358193
      360192 367195 371200 375205 382210 395215 401218 407223
      409225 408228 405229 401228 394229 388233 387238 391244
      395247 403251 418253 426254 433253 444252 451251 455253
      462254 471257 474259 475262 476266 477272 479277 486282
      492286 497289 507287 508290 510289 511286 511283 512280
      517267
 0.25 518185 519183 518181 516180 516179 515178 513176 512175
      510174 509172 507173 506174 506177 507177 508179 509180
      509181 511183 512184 514185 515186 517186 518185
 0.25 488139 487135 482133 474133 471131 469128 468124 467117
      470107 467102 460098 453094 439095 436096 433094 431091
      427089 427094 431099 432102 431105 428107 423111 417116
      414117 415120 423124 426121 429118 435116 441118 444121
      448123 451122 451124 450127 447131 441133 435134 433135
      433138 434143 434164 435168 437171 444170 450171 455169
      461165 466160 471155 471149 469146 469141 471138 474137
      477140 484142 488139
 0.25 429218 428216 426217 425218 426218 428219 429218
 0.25 422229 421226 419225 418225 416225 415227 415228 417230
      419230 421230 422229
 0.25 419163 417161 416160 415160 416162 416163 417164 419163
 0.25 410154 411152 410150 408151 407152 406152 404153 403153
      402155 400157 399159 400160 401161 403161 405161 406161
      407160 408159 409157 409155 410154
 0.25 289972 288960 287951 286943 282938 276937 268935 261935
      254936 248939 243951 237961 237966 238968 243972 249974
      257976 262979 264981 268981 281978 286976 289972
 0.50 514264 515256 514250 511239 502220 500216 497214 494214
      484211 481211 479215 480217 491222 493233 497242 500246
      500253 496248 490239 486238 483240 481236 479232 476229
      472231 469233 465231 457232 439236 435237 430238 420235
      415234 411235 406236 402232 399229 399231 400234 399238
      402241 406243 418248 423249 428248 436246 444245 453245
      464245 469246 474249 477252 479256 485265 490273 493277
      498281 505284 508281 508275 514264
 0.50 464224 464221 464219 463216 462216 461216 459217 458219
      457222 458224 459225 460225 461227 463226 463224 464224
 0.50 462151 463146 460143 462134 461131 459132 457135 455140
      451146 449148 445148 441149 440151 439156 440161 443163
      447164 453161 460158 462151
 0.50 453103 452098 449097 446099 441100 437101 436103 436107
      438111 441114 445117 448115 451112 451105 453103
 0.50 430224 430221 429221 427222 425222 425223 427224 428224
      430224
 0.50 434097 433096 432094 431094 430094 431097 432098 434097
 0.50 412219 409215 403213 401212 402208 399204 395200 390197
      381192 371187 366188 367190 373198 377203 380206 385209
      389211 401214 405219 409221 412219
 0.50 285968 284956 283950 280945 270943 264942 257942 252943
      248947 245956 242961 244966 247968 254969 263972 266976
      268978 272977 276976 281973 284970 285968
 1.00 509251 508243 506237 503231 501225 498220 495220 493222
      494230 496236 500241 504247 507253 509251
 1.00 504278 504271 502263 499258 495252 493247 488242 485243
      484245 484249 485253 487259 490264 493269 497274 502278
      504278
 1.00 479243 480241 479239 479236 478233 478232 476231 474231
      474232 473234 472236 472239 473241 474242 475242 476243
      478244 479243
 1.00 444108 442107 441108 442109 444109 444108
 1.00 426242 426241 424240 422240 421239 420240 420242 421243
      422243 423243 424243 426243 426242
 1.00 398208 397205 395203 393201 389200 386198 384197 381195
      377196 379199 380201 383204 385205 388208 391209 393209
      396210 398208
 1.00 280966 281958 279954 277953 270952 263952 257950 253954
      251960 254964 259967 266967 270970 274972 276970 280966
 1.50 503275 503269 501264 499261 496257 494251 492248 490244
      488243 486246 487252 489257 491261 493265 496270 499273
      502276 503275
 1.50 506245 505242 504239 502236 501233 500230 499226 498224
      495223 494228 495231 496234 499237 501239 502241 504244
      506245
 1.50 477238 477237 477235 476232 474234 474237 475239 477238
      477238
 1.50 394207 395205 394204 392204 390203 389203 387203 389204
      390205 392206 392207 393207 394207
 1.50 276966 277962 276960 274960 272962 270960 268958 265958
      263957 262960 265961 268961 270960 272962 274964 274966
      276966
 2.00 501272 501267 499263 496259 494254 492250 489246 488248
      489252 490255 492260 495264 497268 500272 501272
 2.00 498232 497229 497228 495227 495228 496231 497232 498232

$$





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