Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 181758
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 19/0000 UTC THRU SEP 20/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS...

THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY HI AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS THE PAC NW THIS PD AS ADDITIONAL S/WV ENERGY AND
POWERFUL JET DIG INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF.  AS ASSOCD COLD
FRONT PUSHES RAPID THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/NRN
ROCKIES..STG THICKNESS COOLING WILL CHANGE POSTFRONTAL RAINS TO
SNOW OVER SOME ON THE HIER ELEVS OF THE CASCADES AS WELL AS
FARTHER EAST OF THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN ROCKIES WHERE
STG LEFT EXIT REGION LIFT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT HEAVIER AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE TETONS OF WRN WY...SEE QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON SNOW.
CONSIDERABLE POST FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW WITH 30 TO 40 KTS 85H FLOW
WILL SUPPORT MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY UPSLOPE PCPN AMOUNTS INTO THE
COASTAL RANGES OF OREGON/WA EWD INTO THE CASCADES WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OREGON EXPECTED TO BE THE MORE FAVORED AREA OF HEAVIER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET AND STGR ONSHORE FLOW.
 MODELS GENLY SUPPORT THAT IDEA..SO A GENL MODEL COMPROMISE WITH
EMPHASIS TOWARD HIER RES GUIDANCE FOR TOPO DETAIL WAS FOLLOWED
ALONG WITH CONTINUITY.

...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...

SCTD SHWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD FROM THE MID/UPR MS
VALLEY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING S/WV TROF  THAT IS FCSTS TO MOVE ACRS
THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY BY TUE EVENING. AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO A REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND WEAKER
INFLOW...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND OVERALL
SLOWING OF SYSTEM AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
SOME INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY BE PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH.  AREAL AVG WISE...EXPECT GENL .25 TO .75 INCH AMOUNTS
PRIMARILY FROM PORTIONS OF CNTL/SRN IL EWD INTO WRN OH..WHERE BEST
FORECAST UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS FCST TO COINCIDE WITH NARROWING AXIS
OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH PWS.


...COASTAL NRN MID ATLC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

WITH THE CONTINUED NWD MOTION OF HURRICANE JOSE...WAA PATRN WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE RAINS ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
DELMARVA WITH THE STGR ONSHORE FLOW AND MSTR FLUX GENLY FAVORING
AREAS FROM ERN LONG ISLAND INTO SE MA FOR THE MORE MODEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THIS PD.  A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF JOSE BY THE
NHC HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS REFLECTED
IN LATEST DAY 1 QPF AS WELL WITH .50 TO 1 INCH RAINS EXPECTED THIS
PD FROM ERN LONG ISLAND INTO SE MASSACHUSETTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 20/00Z
 0.01 551157 549151 545147 541135 539124 535112 530111 527113
      520122 519128 520136 520142 521149 526161 528166 531170
      537178 540184 541189 542195
 0.01 555048 553031 551015 549001 546985 540972 538967 533964
      527964 522965 514966 509968 502969 497971 485972 481973
      474974 466978 455982 451985 447989 442994 440997 441000
      447001 453000 456000 458002 462007 465011 467017 461025
      457029 454032 448036 442039 439043 437050 428054 424059
      421066 414076 410088 408093 407100 404107 401111 402116
      404119 407120 417127 420132 419141 418151 417157 414160
      411157 409156 410152 412150 407151 403152 401153 400155
      402160 405161 407163 412165 415167 418168 421171 423174
      428175 434172 437173 438178 438184 435191 436204 434209
      430214 421218 417221 414226 411229 406233 404235 403238
      403244 403248 404250 411254 420263 428272 434281 441288
      446288 451289 463289 474288 496283 505279 508278 512274
      515269 516265 517257 516250 515245 515241 516233 516224
      513220 510213 506210 503207 502202 500193 500185 503179
      504173 503164 501152 497140 488132 483130 478127 477122
      480119 482116 486116 494112 500108 501108 502103 505097
      506090 506082 508074 509071 512071 516074 521078 524077
      534077 538072 540068 544069 547070 550061 555048
 0.01 515656 510655 505659 498661 495662 493665 489670 487676
      485683 482690 476702 468714 454735 452741 451743 452748
      454753 451758 447764 445771 447775 454775 466770 477763
      484761 487760 488758 491757 493754 497748 504738 512726
      517714 522702 523694 522688 523683 523678 521673 520668
 0.01 476197 474194 473192 471191 470190 468190 466192 464192
      463193 462194 462195 462197 462198 463200 465201 466203
      468202 469200 470198 472198 474198 476197
 0.01 484085 483083 481082 480082 478082 476082 475082 473082
      472083 471086 473088 474090 476089 476088 478088 479087
      481087 483087 484085
 0.01 473875 472870 470870 466873 457881 453884 449889 441894
      437899 435897 436890 433884 430869 429861 429857 431852
      430844 428837 427830 431826 442807 448796 447792 445793
      439798 436804 430804 427805 425807 422810 417815 411813
      407812 402816 398819 393822 381825 375827 369828 363827
      356828 352828 350830 348833 348837 349847 349852 347855
      345863 342869 333875 330876 327874 324871 319859 315847
      311842 306841 302842 301844 300849 302859 303867 302883
      299895 297906 295912 296919 297927 297936 290947 281957
      278962 275966 274968 275971 276973 280973 285970 289967
      290973 294970 303964 306959 308956 309951 313936 314930
      314926 312924 313920 315918 319915 321913 325911 331909
      337909 343910 348910 352907 357904 360906 360910 363915
      368917 376916 379916 380918 378920 373932 368937 362941
      351947 346949 343954 341958 341962 342964 346964 350961
      357961 360961 364963 369965 367969 365970 362976 362980
      360985 358990 355994 350999 347004 345010 346012 348010
      352007 357005 367001 375990 379985 384982 393975 402967
      411959 416947 417941 419935 422930 425925 429921 435918
      446914 453913 460910 467900 473875
 0.01 450667 450659 447656 440654 431653 424648 418645 413645
      410645 399647 394649 391652 384658 380660 376658 371660
      367663 361670 356676 349682 339685 333692 328698 324705
      321714 322726 323736 327745 332753 335756 339758 375762
      383764 391765 395764 399761 404760 407757 420745 426739
      431730 437723 442717 447709 448704 448697 447687 446678
      450667
 0.01 430185 429185 427184 426187 426189 428187 430185 430185
 0.01 426784 425782 424782 422782 421782 420784 420785 419787
      417790 416790 416793 416795 418795 419792 421789 423789
      424787 426784 426784
 0.01 404214 402209 399208 396205 391202 387200 384197 382198
      385203 388206 391209 394212 398215 401216 404214
 0.01 382805 381802 379802 379803 378805 376805 376808 378807
      380807 381805 382805
 0.01 382916 380915 378916 380918 382916 382916
 0.01 340008 341001 337999 329003 321009 314017 308017 303015
      294010 284006 275003 263002 257003 254006 252010 255013
      265017 268022 269027 270032 275036 281041 286043 293044
      302042 313039 321035 328027 334020 337016 339010 340008
 0.01 325107 321103 318101 316099 320094 317088 313085 310079
      308066 297060 290060 284062 278063 275064 271063 264061
      259058 248053 242051 234050 231055 231062 235066 241070
      245074 247078 251083 257086 261090 265095 271106 275109
      282110 287107 288104 292103 297106 302110 311115 315112
      317108 325107
 0.01 298800 297791 296782 292778 286780 284782 281783 278784
      274785 268785 261786 251794 249801 248804 250806 253810
      260811 266813 270819 272821 276821 280820 283817 285812
      291808 295804 298800
 0.25 546041 547033 546025 543012 539003 536992 534984 533979
      529976 525975 515975 507978 498982 490986 483991 479994
      479997 482999 487999 492998 496997 501998 503001 504009
      503016 502019 504021 510027 517033 525037 528043 531045
      541047 545044 546041
 0.25 499261 497249 500243 501237 499224 492212 490208 485206
      479205 474207 469209 465210 459208 453209 445213 439214
      435217 426220 424222 425227 426232 422234 418236 415236
      414240 416247 422250 428251 434252 441255 447258 453259
      465259 485256 493260 499261
 0.25 491235 491233 491232 491229 490228 490226 489226 487225
      486225 484225 482226 481226 481229 481231 481232 482234
      482236 483237 484238 485238 486238 487237 489237 491237
      491236 491235
 0.25 493705 493701 491701 488704 485708 482710 481713 479717
      477722 478727 481727 483725 485722 488718 490713 492709
      493705
 0.25 484163 484158 481155 476151 470147 464142 461139 457138
      451141 446145 438146 436149 436153 438157 440161 446164
      448167 449173 451180 446186 450189 454189 457187 462181
      463177 463173 462170 463168 472168 484163
 0.25 464112 464106 462100 459096 455093 454089 456087 459084
      462078 460074 451069 448065 445063 442064 436070 443078
      449085 450089 448090 443092 434092 424088 424093 426098
      419106 414113 412116 417120 427118 436119 445124 450128
      452129 456126 459122 464112
 0.25 459991 458991 457990 455990 454991 455993 457992 458991
      459991
 0.25 430697 428689 426681 422675 417669 412667 406667 402671
      394675 383672 375671 371674 362683 352693 343700 338714
      336720 335728 336736 340742 348750 354753 360754 387753
      393753 399751 411743 415738 418733 421727 425720 429709
      430701 430697
 0.25 413852 414845 412838 411834 407832 398831 392832 389835
      379848 378851 379853 381855 381858 381868 379879 376887
      374893 375899 378902 383904 392904 398905 401907 405909
      407912 410916 412911 413905 412900 406892 401886 401878
      401875 403873 407872 409868 412856 413852
 0.25 277799 274797 272797 269796 266795 263796 261798 260801
      261804 265804 267805 270806 272806 273803 272801 274799
      277799
 0.25 263070 262068 258066 256065 253063 251062 248061 244061
      244063 246065 247066 249069 252071 254072 258073 261072
      263070
 0.50 543027 542022 541016 538011 535010 532011 530016 531021
      532026 534032 536035 540035 542030 543027
 0.50 530997 530992 529989 528986 526984 523981 520982 517983
      515986 517989 518992 520994 523997 524999 526000 529000
      530997
 0.50 488218 486213 484211 479210 476210 470214 462213 446216
      439217 433220 427223 428227 432229 435232 436236 435240
      436243 441245 445245 453245 461246 468245 474242 477240
      477235 471230 471223 474219 481221 486220 488218
 0.50 503988 503985 502984 500984 499985 498985 497986 495987
      494988 492990 490991 489992 490993 492994 494993 495993
      496993 497992 499992 500991 501990 502990 503988
 0.50 474161 473160 472158 470156 468155 467154 465154 465156
      465157 466159 467160 468160 470161 471162 473162 474161
 0.50 453161 452161 452159 451158 449157 448158 449159 450161
      451161 452161 453161
 0.50 456113 456106 455100 450095 443097 438097 433095 430093
      427093 427095 430099 432104 426106 424110 428112 433112
      438114 446118 448119 453117 456113
 0.50 452078 451077 451075 450074 449073 448072 446071 445070
      443070 442072 443074 443075 444076 445077 446078 448079
      449080 451079 452078
 0.50 424703 423695 421689 418684 415682 412683 407686 405692
      403694 397691 390685 386681 381679 376679 371681 362690
      354697 346703 343715 341721 341729 343736 346739 354747
      359749 363750 376750 388748 396747 402744 410737 416727
      421718 423711 424705 424703
 0.50 406899 406896 404894 401892 399891 397890 394889 392892
      395894 398894 401896 402899 403901 406901 406899
 0.50 403862 404857 403852 402848 401846 399846 397847 395849
      394852 392856 392858 393860 394865 395867 397867 400865
      401864 403862
 0.50 388890 389888 388886 388883 389881 388879 388878 386877
      384879 383881 382882 381884 380886 380888 381891 383892
      384893 385893 386893 387892 388890 388890
 1.00 464221 464218 461217 456217 450218 445218 440219 434222
      435226 441227 447226 451225 453223 456224 461225 464221
 1.00 461238 461235 460234 459233 457233 456234 455234 453235
      452235 451235 450235 448235 447236 447239 449239 451239
      453238 454239 456239 458239 460238 461238
 1.00 446109 445108 444108 443108 444109 445110 446109
 1.00 419711 418703 413700 411704 409710 404711 398702 392694
      388690 384688 375685 369689 366692 352707 348716 346722
      346728 348733 350736 354739 359743 367745 379744 388740
      392739 395739 399740 405732 409728 412723 417718 419711
 1.50 461220 459219 458219 458222 459222 460223 460222 461220
 1.50 451222 450221 448220 447220 445220 443220 441221 440222
      441224 443224 444224 446225 448225 449224 450223 451222
 1.50 399719 399713 398709 395703 391697 386693 380691 377690
      373691 364700 358703 356706 354710 349722 350729 354734
      359738 364740 371739 380737 387735 393732 396726 399719
      399719
 2.00 396712 394706 391700 387697 382695 377694 372696 368700
      362703 358707 357713 352724 354730 359734 363735 370735
      384732 389729 394724 396719 396712
 3.00 393715 391707 389704 386701 380699 376700 373702 367707
      363713 359720 359723 360727 363729 368729 377728 384727
      388726 391723 393716 393715
 4.00 391718 389709 386705 381708 377707 375713 368714 365721
      365724 367725 373724 378721 383723 387723 390721 391718
 5.00 386717 386715 386712 385711 384712 382712 381713 380715
      380716 381716 382716 384717 384718 386717 386717
 5.00 374719 372718 372717 370716 368717 368719 367721 367723
      369724 371723 372722 374719
 6.00 372720 370718 368720 368721 369721 371722 372720

$$





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