Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 121835
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 13/0000 UTC THRU NOV 14/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

OVERALL...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE CONUS THROUGH DAY 1.  THE
DAY 1 PRELIM WPC QPF LARGELY REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
HRW-ARW/NMMB AND NAM CONEST.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE LOW
WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY THIS PERIOD AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
EAST AND THEN WEAKEN...SHEARING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MON...PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  WHILE PWS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY ANOMALOUS (LESS THAN 1 STANDARD DEVIATION
ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE GFS)...STRONG UPPER FORCING ALONG
WITH OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WHERE SEVERAL INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED BY MON
EVENING.  SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
PERIOD...RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES.  REFER TO WPC WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.  ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

...TEXAS...

CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATE SUN...WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW SHOWERS
SPREADING FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FURTHER SOUTH.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER
TOTALS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/PLAINS...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS MAY PRODUCE SOME
HEAVY AMOUNTS.

...FLORIDA...

DEEP MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE PENINSULA.

...OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING.
 THIS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT BUT FAIRLY ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

...NORTH GEORGIA TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL MID ATLANTIC...

A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM NORTH GA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
DELMARVA.  A NARROW STRIPE OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

...NORTHEAST COAST...

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON
MON...A WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST MON AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MON AFTERNOON-EVENING.  WHILE DOWNPLAYING THE AMOUNTS OF
THE NAM...WHICH WAS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...DID
INCREASE AMOUNTS LATE IN PERIOD GIVEN THE OVERALL TRENDS TOWARD A
MORE AMPLIFIED/WETTER SOLUTION.

PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 14/00Z
 0.01 538207 539197 538190 532175 528168 526164 523161 512152
      495135 490129 487127 483127 478129 474130 472134 471138
      472141 475143 475145 468144 462147 461153 459156 456158
      454156 448152 444152 444155 444164 441168 433181 428187
      421190 416192 412200 408207 402203 396199 387197 384198
      384203 385211 384215 381217 363232 360234 359238 358243
      360244 366244 375244 377243 380244 384248 383258 387264
      389266 392268 401271 407270 410269 414269 419272 423275
      426278 428282 428286 431288 433291 437293 444292 454285
      456284 459285 464287 471290 478290 491290 499293 505292
      509286 512282 519266 524227 527222 532219 535213 538207
 0.01 477852 476845 476837 474831 472828 465839 463843 461852
      461861 462866 464868 465888 465900 468898 472892 476880
      477870 474863 471858 472855 475853 477852
 0.01 464814 464809 462802 458798 454797 454793 448794 443805
      443800 441800 439803 437801 438793 439785 441771 441760
      442754 446744 447739 447732 443730 441727 443724 446717
      446710 444695 446688 447685 447681 448674 444670 438668
      434664 433657 431651 428646 425643 420643 416646 410650
      405654 398665 387672 379681 372690 367698 362707 357718
      355723 352729 339746 323766 311779 307783 302786 297789
      293790 290789 283790 279789 277787 275781 269781 263784
      259787 252789 247792 245795 243800 241810 237819 237826
      242823 247823 253821 258818 264819 268823 270825 273824
      274818 275814 277813 282811 284809 286810 291810 295812
      306815 316820 323820 329817 332816 335818 331823 326833
      326840 330839 332838 339832 346826 354818 357816 362815
      365816 364819 360823 355825 354830 348840 349844 352842
      356840 357837 360834 362836 361838 356847 352855 352860
      353864 355864 362863 366860 373850 378847 385846 390848
      395853 399857 405858 407857 409859 409863 413865 418866
      427869 438864 440866 444866 450865 455862 458856 458849
      458842 457832 460825 463819 464814
 0.01 459971 459969 457966 455964 454964 452962 452961 450961
      449961 447961 445961 447964 448966 449967 450969 452969
      453971 454971 455972 457972 459972 459971
 0.01 449841 449836 447834 441827 439826 437823 436821 433823
      430831 427838 427850 428856 431858 438859 443856 446848
      449841
 0.01 435710 430707 433703 433696 434689 430684 427684 426686
      425693 425700 424706 422711 418715 410735 403743 398754
      396757 396765 402774 411798 413802 416797 419792 420785
      422758 422751 423745 424739 427734 431724 432718 435712
      435710
 0.01 232961 233971 231977 231984 231991 234996 237998 242000
      252002 262006 271011 277013 280016 300022 306030 308035
      311039 317039 317037 316033 316029 317022 319017 324015
      334010 336008 342006 346005 351002 355000 357995 355989
      360987 368983 371980 373976 373972 372972 368972 365974
      355975 337980 331980 328975 327960 327947 325943 321941
      321947 319954 316966 312973 306981 301985 297982 294979
      288976 277976 274975 270972 266970 260968 255966 250965
      242960 232957
 0.01 353757 350757 347758 346762 345765 344768 342770 342773
      341775 340779 342779 344776 346774 347772 349769 350767
      350762 352760 353757
 0.01 340784 341781 339780 339782 340784 340784
 0.01 338791 338788 337787 336789 335790 335791 334793 335795
      337793 337792 338791
 0.01 335798 335795 334795 333796 333798 334799 335798
 0.01 304882 292877 286865 273862 265863 261863 259866 257872
      253877 251879 252883 254891 257895 261896 263899 271908
      276911 280911 283910 287906 291899 298890 302886 304882
 0.25 531205 533200 533195 532187 526173 522168 517162 509159
      502155 499154 494158 489161 483163 482167 483170 488177
      487184 485192 484199 479202 474206 469208 459210 455213
      449213 438217 435217 426218 421224 420219 415213 409211
      402209 394206 391209 395216 402221 401225 392226 385223
      381224 378228 378233 391240 396245 401253 406256 413256
      423255 428255 431263 436269 442271 448271 456271 465268
      471268 479271 486274 493281 500283 506283 508282 509278
      512271 515266 517260 518253 517243 515235 510219 503209
      498203 499199 501196 507196 514197 517198 520201 523208
      526210 528209 531205
 0.25 489231 489226 487224 484223 481223 478223 477222 474221
      472222 472226 475225 479226 481229 483232 484234 487233
      489231
 0.25 492142 490140 490139 489137 488136 487135 486136 486138
      487141 488141 488142 490144 492142
 0.25 476159 477157 476154 475154 474153 472152 471152 469152
      468152 468155 468157 469157 469160 470161 471161 472161
      473161 475160 476159
 0.25 462181 463176 461174 459175 457177 455177 454174 451172
      451175 452177 455179 453183 452186 453189 454188 456186
      458185 461183 462181
 0.25 430214 430212 429209 429208 427207 427206 426205 424204
      422205 422207 423210 424210 425212 426213 426214 428215
      430214
 0.25 420702 419697 417692 415679 414673 411667 408666 404668
      398674 392682 387689 381696 376703 371710 362725 361729
      361734 368729 372727 377728 381730 383731 386730 393725
      397722 401725 404725 406722 408717 411713 415711 417708
      420702
 0.25 404825 404820 402818 400817 399819 397823 396826 395828
      396831 397835 400835 401834 403831 404827 404825
 0.25 401802 401799 401797 401795 400793 398791 396791 395792
      393793 392794 391796 391797 391799 392799 392801 394801
      395803 396804 396805 398807 399806 400804 401802 401802
 0.25 383745 382741 380739 376742 372756 373760 371764 367770
      359779 351789 348795 349802 355804 359803 361801 365798
      368795 369791 375779 379764 382750 383745
 0.25 315794 316792 315791 314792 313793 312794 314795 315794
      315794
 0.25 321979 322977 322975 321973 321972 320973 319973 318975
      318977 317979 318981 319982 321980 321979
 0.25 289891 290886 289881 285875 279872 272871 266874 261880
      261883 263886 267890 272896 274899 278900 283899 286897
      289891
 0.25 287006 285002 283997 279989 277986 273983 262983 251983
      246983 242986 241989 242994 246996 251998 260998 268999
      277003 284006 287006
 0.25 276799 273792 269792 266794 257797 252800 247806 246809
      249812 252813 256812 262808 266812 268814 270813 273810
      275803 276799
 0.50 530199 529193 527186 523175 521170 518166 514168 509167
      501162 498162 494166 492173 494176 497180 503181 506186
      512188 516190 520194 527201 530199
 0.50 514261 515253 515247 512234 507220 499211 493206 488202
      484204 479206 474211 464211 446216 441217 436219 426220
      426225 428227 430228 436229 442227 447228 452225 454225
      458226 459229 456230 448232 443233 439236 433238 427234
      415229 416217 403212 399209 396208 394211 397216 402220
      405224 403227 401228 390228 386225 384226 384231 394238
      397241 403244 414249 419249 426249 432250 437253 439255
      439258 443261 448261 454262 463258 469257 473261 477264
      482266 486269 490275 494278 499279 506279 508272 512266
      514261
 0.50 490234 490227 489223 484222 480220 475217 471219 468222
      465227 467229 470230 473229 477227 480229 483234 486236
      489235 490234
 0.50 412683 412676 409674 404675 400677 394685 390691 384699
      380707 380711 382713 388708 393706 399706 402707 406705
      409701 410697 411685 412683
 0.50 287889 287885 284881 281878 277876 273878 270880 271885
      274888 276890 279894 284895 287891 287889
 0.50 273801 273799 273797 272795 271794 270795 269796 268797
      267798 266800 266802 266804 266806 267808 267809 268810
      269811 270810 271809 271808 272806 272803 273801
 0.50 275991 273986 268986 264987 259987 253987 248987 244990
      248993 251994 257994 260994 266994 271993 275991
 0.50 260805 260803 260801 259801 257801 256801 256802 254804
      254806 256807 257807 258808 258807 260805 260805
 1.00 510257 511253 511249 510242 508233 506226 504222 501216
      488210 482211 481215 486220 490220 491222 492225 493233
      496240 498245 497246 493242 489240 486240 483238 481234
      479230 476229 474230 469234 462233 444238 448241 453242
      456243 458246 459248 463248 468248 473249 480251 483255
      486260 491265 501273 510257
 1.00 468217 466216 465216 463216 461216 459217 457218 456219
      455220 455221 457223 458224 459225 460225 461226 462226
      463225 464224 465221 466219 468217 468217
 1.00 450222 450220 449219 448219 447220 445220 442218 441220
      444222 446223 450223 450222
 1.00 431243 429240 426238 423236 421236 418234 415234 413236
      414240 416241 418244 422245 425245 428245 431243
 1.00 412226 413224 414222 414219 414217 414216 412216 410217
      408217 406216 405216 404217 404218 406219 406220 407222
      407223 407225 408227 408228 410230 412228 412226
 1.50 506245 506237 505231 503228 502222 500218 495217 493222
      493225 493230 495236 498239 501243 505246 506245
 1.50 501267 501259 500255 497252 494248 491245 486243 485248
      487253 489257 492260 495263 500266 501267
 1.50 490216 489214 487213 485214 485215 485216 485217 486219
      488219 489218 490217 490216
 1.50 481244 481242 481239 481236 480234 480232 478231 478230
      477230 476230 474231 474232 472233 472234 471236 471238
      472240 472241 473243 474244 476245 478245 479246 481244
      481244
 1.50 464239 465236 464236 463236 462237 460237 458237 457237
      458237 460238 461238 463239 464239
 1.50 462223 464221 463218 462218 461218 459219 458219 458222
      458223 460224 462224 462223
 1.50 425242 424239 423238 421237 419237 418237 418240 419240
      421241 422242 424242 425242
 1.50 411226 412223 413221 413219 412218 410218 409218 408220
      409223 409224 410225 410226 411226
 2.00 502238 503236 502231 501227 500225 500221 497219 495220
      493225 494228 495233 496236 497237 500240 502238
 2.00 495257 495254 494251 492249 491248 489248 489249 489250
      490252 490253 492254 493255 494256 495257 495257
 2.00 480241 480239 480236 479234 479233 478231 476231 475232
      474233 473234 473236 473239 475241 476242 478243 480242
      480241
 2.00 462221 462220 461220 460220 460222 462221 462221
 3.00 497231 498229 498226 497225 496224 495225 495228 495229
      496231 497232 497231
 3.00 479238 479236 478233 476233 474234 474237 475239 477240
      478240 479238
 4.00 478237 477235 476235 475236 477238 478237

$$





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