Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 150659
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 AM EST MON JAN 15 2018


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JAN 15/1200 UTC THRU JAN 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES...

AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL LEAD TO A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY,
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH ELONGATES AND TAKES ON A POSITIVE TILT
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUE. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH (POSITIVE TILT) AND STRENGTHENING EXIT UPPER JET
(EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS), EXPECT INCREASING LOW-MID LAYER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY. THE DISTANCE LAG BETWEEN
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR PREDOMINATELY ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION, AND WHILE OVERALL
LIGHT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF SUBTROPICAL CONTRIBUTION (NEGLIGIBLE PW
AND LOW-MID LAYER MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES), THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT (RARE) WINTER WEATHER IMPACT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST QPFHSD.

WPC QPF UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE OF THE
CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE 00Z HIGH-RES
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEAN, CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM, GFS, AND ECMWF.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE APPROACH OF A LOW LEVEL FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND ENSUING UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED, LARGELY N-S AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO DRIFT ON SHORE THAT DRIFT ONSHORE FROM
NORTHERN CA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PAC NW. GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FRONTAL TIMING LEADS TO A CONSENSUS BASED APPROACH TO THE
FORECAST. WPC QPF UTILIZED A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE OF THE
CONSENSUS/CONTINUITY FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE 00Z GFS, ECMWF,
HREF HIGH-RES MEAN, AND NBM.

HURLEY


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 494334 472325 460319 455314 453309 452297 452294 450293
      445294 434295 429295 422293 400285 395282 388279 377274
      372271 369268 366263 362260 361258 361252 355250 352247
      354240 359232 362228 364220 371209 374203 373197 372193
      369190 366185 368183 378189 385191 390193 395193 398191
      402186 406184 426179 430177 433174 444176 451178 455179
      457181 461190 466193 471193 475189 479189 486191 489195
      497204 502206 504209 507214 510220 514232 519244 521252
      522256 524260
 0.01 503888 503876 500870 487864 469832 467829 463826 461822
      461818 463814 462810 462806 463801 468794 467787 469782
      467768 466753 465740 462732 458725 452723 447719 443720
      438720 428726 423732 419738 416743 411744 403753 402763
      403771 402777 398787 394789 392793 386797 381805 373817
      370824 367830 351861 347871 341880 331893 328897 326902
      323910 317917 313926 305937 293944 287945 284945 281943
      279939 281933 279921 281917 283914 286906 289895 293888
      293881 290879 285879 281881 277884 275889 273892 271896
      268907 268924 268934 266937 266942 265946 265950 268954
      265959 255959 250959 246958 245958 248962 248965 246968
      244969 241973 241977 246983 254986 259988 262991 256000
      256006 258010 267021 280026 286027 290030 297034 309043
      312045 316044 317041 314037 312033 312026 311022 312017
      317015 320012 323008 326003 329993 334984 345955 352939
      355930 358927 358933 358945 360956 365976 366990 360000
      355010 354016 354020 355022 361035 353046 351050 350053
      352055 361056 367054 375052 383056 387057 390060 387063
      389068 391070 395073 396069 400065 402063 405064 409066
      414067 416062 416054 415050 415045 413043 409036 400025
      390011 385004 385999 383995 380986 377976 378946 379934
      381930 381922 384911 389900 392895 397890 401888 404890
      410892 416897 419907 420913 422919 427925 430928 434928
      437928 440930 444931 455930 459930 464928 480922 484919
      485914 488908 490904 498898 501893 503888
 0.01 474639 471635 466634 451637 448636 444638 435638 429639
      423642 414649 404658 393669 382680 372704 368708 363715
      358721 355722 351722 345722 339724 335729 330733 323738
      320743 315757 313760 315762 318765 325764 328763 330765
      355755 362754 367755 371754 374752 377747 382743 387738
      398726 401721 399717 398712 396710 393711 391713 390716
      390720 385726 372734 372721 375717 381711 386705 390704
      393701 403692 405691 406693 407698 411704 414710 420714
      425713 428709 430706 434698 436692 439687 441679 444674
      448665 452659 458657 463655 466652 471645 474639
 0.01 435090 435083 432080 429077 427075 426070 424067 421068
      422072 422079 423084 425086 428091 429092 435090 435090
 0.01 313786 310784 307786 304787 297787 291784 281779 279777
      278772 276770 272770 243774 239777 238779 239782 242784
      244788 242789 238789 233789 229790 228793 227796 227802
      227811 227825 228835 230843 233847 239845 246841 248837
      244832 243827 245819 247815 249813 254811 262810 269808
      276807 288803 301796 308791 311788 313786
 0.25 511294 508287 507274 506267 506261 508256 509249 508245
      506242 503236 502231 500225 496222 493226 492230 493235
      492239 490242 482244 479230 475229 472234 470239 467240
      462239 458236 454233 449231 437227 432226 430222 427223
      428227 432229 422228 415218 413215 409213 401209 395207
      390210 389216 387221 381227 379232 379235 379242 381248
      386256 392261 397270 406276 417282 424285 435289 443287
      448286 453287 456290 457295 458307 460311 466315 474318
      480320 485320 491320 499322
 0.25 452874 449872 445873 440875 435873 433871 430867 426866
      424869 425874 428877 432878 437878 442878 447878 451876
      452874
 0.25 426657 425652 419652 411658 405664 399670 393677 390680
      389686 390687 396686 404680 410673 417669 424662 426657
 0.25 364742 362736 357732 353731 346730 343731 338736 335741
      335746 339751 345751 352750 359748 364744 364742
 0.25 374880 374878 373876 372878 372879 371880 370882 369885
      369887 370887 371887 372885 372884 373882 374881 374880
 0.25 332943 333928 333925 330925 326928 320937 315945 310955
      305964 304969 306974 311973 315969 321960 327953 332944
      332943
 0.25 287006 287004 285001 284999 281997 279997 277998 275001
      276005 278007 279009 282011 285010 287008 287006
 0.25 271797 268795 264797 260797 257794 249794 240794 235795
      231798 231808 233820 235822 238820 242813 249808 252805
      258803 264800 271797
 0.50 499297 499296 498295 497293 496292 494291 493290 491290
      489290 489291 487292 486292 485293 484294 485296 486298
      488299 489299 491300 493301 494301 496301 498300 499297
 0.50 502278 503275 503271 501267 499261 498255 495252 492250
      489252 488257 488262 489268 490273 493276 498278 502278
 0.50 482312 484308 484303 479298 481293 478287 475283 471285
      469288 467288 463293 461301 461305 462307 468311 475311
      480312 482312
 0.50 471279 470275 466271 462267 457264 449257 438252 433250
      430247 428240 423236 416230 413226 411223 407225 405229
      400228 394227 388229 386231 386236 388243 393246 396249
      401251 406253 409253 410249 414249 415252 411254 410259
      412261 420266 431272 440277 446278 450277 471279
 0.50 477238 478235 477234 476233 475235 475237 475238 477238
      477238
 0.50 357741 356737 354736 352735 349734 347734 343734 342737
      341740 341744 343748 345748 348747 351747 354745 356743
      357741
 0.50 243799 242799 240799 239799 240801 241801 242800 243799
 0.50 243807 242805 241805 239804 237805 237806 236808 238810
      240809 241808 243807

$$





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