Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 170614
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 17/1200 UTC THRU SEP 18/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


...DAY 1...


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...

PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A UPPER
TROUGH/LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF AK. DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
COASTAL MOUTAINS/OLYMPICS AND CASCADES OF WA/OREGON. EXPECT LESSER
AMOUNTS INLAND TO THE NRN ROCKIES LATE PD. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY...HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED CONTINUITY.


...GREAT LAKES DOWN THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE S-CENTRAL
PLAINS/ROCKIES...

WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
WITH NEG TILTED S/WV TROUGH PASSAGE. AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS LIFT
NEWD AND ALLOWS SLOWING ALONG THE SRN END OF THE FRONT...VEERING
85H FLOW COULD SET UP A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
TRAINING OF CELLS ACRS PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO SRN MO/NE OK INTO
SUN MORNING AS FLOW AND POOLED MSTR BECOMES A BIT MORE ALIGNED
WITH THE SFC FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIANCE...WPC QPF ACROSS THIS AREA RELIED MORE
HEAVILY ON A MEAN OF THE MOST RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
CONTINUITY. FARTHER SW ACROSS W TX INTO SRN/ERN NM...BROAD
SOUTHWEST MID-UPPER FLOW CONTAINING WEAK EMBEDDED VORT FEATURES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER CELLS/REPEAT CELLS GIVEN INTRUSION OF
HIGHER LEVEL MSTR FROM MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC AS PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS. RENEWED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CONTINUES
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF IMPULSE
ENERGY/MOISTURE INTO THE STALLED/RETREATING FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW WITH DETAILS GIVEN QPF SPREAD
SO STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS THERE.


...COASTAL NC...

HURRICANE JOSE IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO TRACK WELL OFFSHORE
NC...BUT ENHANCED MOISTURE WRAPPING FAR TO THE NW OF JOSE
INTO/OVER AN OLD DRAPED FRONT NOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS A STRIPE OF MODERATE PCPN INTO COASTAL NC.

SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 18/12Z
 0.01 494333 491330 487328 482325 478323 470318 466316 464313
      461306 459295 455288 451285 447285 433281 432278 431273
      432266 431263 429263 414253 408249 407244 408239 420229
      421223 423219 428213 434210 440204 442200 443193 444181
      446169 451161 456156 460150 467145 473139 474135 477133
      480132 484132 489134 491136 497143 499148 502150 507156
      512162 516164 520167 526172 529178 536190 542198
 0.01 568941 565952 562956 560963 552981 548993 546998 530015
      517015 512007 505990 502980 502973 501967 500960 499952
      499945 497939 494915 493910 492907 489900 486897 483894
      475888 469888 465886 455887 451887 446889 439890 433883
      425888 418893 415898 414904 412908 412911 414914 417914
      420918 424921 428925 431933 435942 438946 440951 442956
      446956 454957 455952 460950 466942 467940 469942 469947
      466954 463961 461965 459969 447981 448988 450994 450998
      448000 442004 433006 429008 427011 423015 419019 420022
      423022 427025 430025 433023 436025 436035 435039 432041
      425046 420053 414060 408063 402070 395076 390082 386086
      382088 376087 373084 368079 364077 360076 355077 347087
      334089 337078 343069 342067 330069 321086 313090 307088
      297089 289092 285091 282088 277082 272077 267070 265067
      262064 261061 261056 264054 268054 272056 276060 279063
      284064 294060 297059 300056 305051 311047 317039 324035
      331030 337023 338019 339013 336004 338999 341996 344991
      343987 340988 333991 331988 333983 335978 338975 344967
      347961 348955 349945 352936 353930 353924 354911 349910
      344911 338915 336917 335919 334924 331926 329926 325924
      321921 318922 314922 312924 310925 309928 309948 305958
      297964 289964 281970 277973 271974 265971 262969 261966
      263964 265960 268957 272951 275943 280925 284917 286913
      289908 291897 297893 300888 299879 299874 302869 302863
      306860 309858 311858 323859 335866 335867 344870 352872
      359876 370875 376874 380872 385863 388856 391850 394845
      399837 406829 409826 413823 431815 438809 443803 448797
      455791 461787 467781 470774 472768 480761
 0.01 480761 486755 489752 490754 492755 492752 492748 491744
      489734 482713 475694 472683 469674 467662 467652 469643
      472635 475631 477630 479632 483634 485633 494629 498633
      508648 517662 518663
 0.01 492196 491191 489186 484184 479183 475184 472187 469190
      467194 467201 472202 476202 479200 483199 487197 491197
      492196
 0.01 429678 428671 422668 416667 402678 384705 347717 328723
      323729 320733 316740 312751 307761 304764 302767 299767
      293767 287766 279767 272768 265769 261771 260777 262782
      258792 254794 248798 244808 245823 255818 260815 264811
      271805 274804 276805 280809 283812 288814 297811 304807
      312806 324803 333797 340795 345792 353787 360781 374764
      379759 383757 388756 393757 392764 390778 388781 385783
      382786 378789 375790 373792 372797 369802 367806 366810
      369811 376810 380807 385804 390799 395796 402795 410789
      416786 420784 422782 423778 423773 423765 425758 426753
      427744 428738 431733 432730 429727 425727 422729 420732
      418738 416743 412747 407750 403748 401743 403739 407735
      409730 413725 415720 418714 419709 418702 420690 426683
      429678
 0.01 409101 408098 406095 405095 403097 402100 400102 400104
      402106 404107 405107 407105 407103 409101
 0.01 282856 280852 278850 276846 272844 268843 265843 261846
      259850 261854 263858 266860 269862 275862 280861 282858
      282856
 0.01 281989 282987 281985 281983 281982 279980 277980 275982
      275984 275987 277989 279989 281989 281989
 0.01 268933 269931 270929 268927 266926 264927 264928 264929
      263930 263931 261933 261935 261937 263939 265939 266937
      266935 268933 268933
 0.01 265007 266003 266000 264996 255992 252990 251988 250982
      247982 244980 238979 235983 234988 231991 232997 234001
      237005 242006 249008 251010 251013 253015 254014 256013
      256010 263009 265007
 0.25 515267 517262 517257 516248 511237 499216 494211 487208
      481207 476208 466212 455212 444215 439217 435220 433227
      433230 435234 435239 438242 445244 452247 461255 463261
      466266 469271 473276 477280 483284 487288 491289 499277
      507273 515267
 0.25 516735 516733 516732 515730 514728 512726 512725 511726
      510727 510729 510731 510734 510737 511739 512741 513741
      515739 515738 516735 516735
 0.25 525920 525908 523899 523876 523863 522852 521840 520832
      519826 517823 512827 509833 507841 507847 505851 504860
      503863 503869 506876 512890 518905 523920 525920
 0.25 486675 490676 490670 488665 487663 484661 483662 481665
      481667 482670 484672 486676 486675
 0.25 460188 461185 460184 458185 459187 460188 460188
 0.25 461834 461827 460821 455822 451824 448827 445830 442834
      442839 442844 447845 452844 456841 459838 461834
 0.25 422855 423851 422848 419847 417848 413849 412851 410857
      407860 402860 400862 398869 397875 395878 388880 382882
      377884 374887 368894 365898 364903 363911 363920 363928
      362934 359943 355954 353959 352969 353985 353993 352001
      350006 348013 348021 352032 353033 357030 360026 362021
      363013 365007 367000 369995 374988 378984 383986 390993
      399999 403995 404991 407979 412966 413961 408960 403959
      400956 397950 396945 394939 394929 394924 393918 390915
      389908 391895 397885 412873 419864 422855
 0.25 381741 381739 380737 378737 376737 374737 373738 372738
      371739 369740 368741 369743 370743 372744 372745 373745
      375745 377745 379744 380743 380742 381741
 0.25 359754 359751 357751 352751 348751 344752 336756 330759
      323765 316769 308772 303774 299774 294775 291778 290781
      289787 291792 293796 298801 314798 322795 328792 341781
      349768 355762 358756 359754
 0.25 355732 351727 346726 338727 333730 328734 325739 327744
      332746 339746 345748 350743 352737 355732
 0.50 511257 512254 511249 510246 508244 506242 504241 502243
      502249 502254 503257 504260 506261 508261 510260 511257
 0.50 518861 519858 519855 518853 518852 516851 515852 514853
      513854 512856 511859 511861 511864 512866 512868 513869
      514871 515871 515872 516871 517870 518868 518866 518863
      518862 518861
 0.50 495270 495259 492252 488244 482241 474237 466239 465243
      467245 471248 473251 479256 479267 484272 488275 492275
      495270
 0.50 498232 499229 498227 498224 496222 494222 494223 494225
      494226 494228 495230 496231 497232 498232
 0.50 486218 485216 484215 484214 482213 481212 479212 477212
      477213 475213 474214 473215 472216 471217 470218 471220
      473220 474219 476219 478219 480219 481220 483220 484219
      485219 486218
 0.50 471221 469219 468219 467219 466221 465221 465222 467223
      468222 469221 471221
 0.50 462221 459217 456217 451217 447218 443219 440221 439224
      442226 444225 448224 452222 455222 459222 462221
 0.50 400979 398970 395961 391954 388945 385936 384931 380931
      373934 368939 360954 357962 357974 358996 359000 361999
      365992 373976 375973 377972 380973 386977 391984 393987
      397986 400979
 0.50 378904 379902 378900 378899 376898 374898 373898 371899
      370900 369901 368903 368905 368907 368909 369911 369912
      371912 372911 373911 374909 375908 376907 378905 378904
 0.50 342766 339763 334765 327770 320774 312778 305784 302787
      304792 308795 312795 320791 327788 334781 339773 342766
 1.00 375954 374949 372949 370951 368954 366956 365958 364961
      364965 365967 367967 368965 370961 371958 373956 375954

$$





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