Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 110639
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 11/1200 UTC THRU NOV 12/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
NEXT NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA THIS PERIOD.  THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL
APPROACH VANCOUVER ISLAND/PACIFIC NORTHWEST AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF FRONTAL PRECIP PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF SUNDAY.
 THE HEAVIEST TOTALS EXPECTED FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND---SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA AND SOUTH ALONG THE WA
STATE COAST AND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.  AREAL
AVERAGE .50-1" TOTALS POSSIBLE---WITH GREATER TOTALS LIKELY IN THE
OLYMPIC RANGE.  FARTHER INLAND---MODERATE TOTALS EXPECTED INTO THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES WITH LIGHT TOTALS EAST OF THE CASCADES INTO
NORTHEAST WA---NORTHERN ID AND FAR NW MT.

NORTHERN ROCKIES--NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS---LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

A LEAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL PUSH
STEADILY EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DAY 1.  LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP TOTALS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY DAY 1.  PRECIP COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY
WHERE A STREAM OF HIGHER PW VALUES WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MAX .10-.25"+
AMOUNTS IN THE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT REGION FROM EASTERN
KS---EASTERN NE---NW MO---MUCH OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL.

UPPER GREAT LAKES

A SEPARATE STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FARTHER TO THE NORTH WILL
ALSO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH.  THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS MAY ENHANCE PRECIP TOTALS OFF OF THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MI ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF THE L.P.
AND THE EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE U.P.

SOUTH TX

AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST FROM FAR NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST OFF
THE SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
A PERSISTENT SHOWERY PATTERN FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTH
TX WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE.

FLORIDA

ONSHORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST DAY 1 FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  THIS WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AFFECTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THIS PERIOD.  MODERATE AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS
DEPICTED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY  HEAVY TOTALS WHERE THE
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RAIN BANDS ARE MOST PERSISTENT.

CENTRAL GULF COAST

INCREASING SHOWERY CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY THIS PERIOD ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN LA WHERE MODELS SHOW
INCREASING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FOCUSING INTO.
CONSENSUS IS FOR .25-50" AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
LA---WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE.


ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 12/12Z
 0.01 532211 533201 532195 528182 524173 520170 517168 514168
      508167 504163 497161 493163 488171 484173 481178 480187
      481195 476198 471199 465205 459204 456204 455206 455212
      450214 441218 434221 435225 438227 440230 440233 438234
      433235 426233 420233 412235 408239 406243 412252 417255
      420257 429255 434255 436262 441273 443277 448282 456286
      467289 480294 486296 490299 494301 499301 503300 507296
      512283 518273 520266 521260 521253 520247 516233 511222
      508217 507212 511212 514212 515214 522217 527216 532211
 0.01 514843 513819 510813 506808 501806 495802 484798 481796
      477797 470797 464800 457802 453805 448809 446815 440817
      448839 445845 443854 439859 433863 426864 421867 418870
      416877 410888 407890 404891 395892 383897 380897 377900
      374900 372904 371907 373909 376915 378917 378924 375931
      371943 372952 373956 371960 368966 368972 371985 373992
      374995 378995 384994 389993 392991 407970 410966 413959
      416959 418962 422968 429994 432012 436027 440043 443044
      444049 443054 440057 443066 436067 434071 436072 439073
      441076 439079 438088 436093 426086 423086 422090 423093
      426096 428099 426101 421104 420105 422109 423112 421114
      420116 422119 425125 426127 428125 431120 434116 438115
      441118 447120 452118 463114 464110 464107 463104 459102
      450093 452085 456079 461077 467077 470073 470067 469058
      465053 460047 457044 445015 441000 436983 433971 428959
      427951 427941 428938 428931 431924 440914 443909 449909
      453908 454906 457903 457899 460881 468872 469869 472869
      478868 479874 478877 477883 476887 477897 482897 483902
      484908 484917 485923 485928 486934 487938 489944 491947
      494947 499947 501945 501940 502937 505896 508880 508871
      509864 512859 513851 513846 514843
 0.01 486136 485133 483132 480130 478129 475128 472128 472133
      472138 473139 477140 480140 482140 484138 486136
 0.01 482163 478159 474154 471149 468144 461143 459148 460153
      463156 463159 465167 470168 475166 480165 482163
 0.01 475882 474880 471880 470883 469885 468888 466893 466895
      467900 468900 470898 470895 472892 473888 473885 475882
 0.01 357834 353826 349826 347829 342831 337832 332837 328846
      327852 327857 328861 333861 339860 342858 348853 350848
      351844 355837 357834
 0.01 317808 316805 313803 309800 303796 299797 288791 282790
      276787 270785 266788 265791 265796 265804 268812 271818
      277821 283821 290823 298823 306821 310817 315812 317808
 0.01 231979 237982 244981 252983 257986 263991 266999 267001
      272001 280002 295002 298001 299997 301989 303983 299979
      293974 286972 278970 272967 259961 251958 245957 237956
      232959
 0.01 302895 302888 300884 296878 290872 283868 281872 277875
      270879 268882 269888 272896 273901 277904 284907 290906
      293904 297903 300900 302895
 0.25 515267 516261 515255 513245 510237 507229 503220 498212
      494210 490209 483210 469217 471219 474218 483222 489226
      493235 496242 500251 503259 499254 491240 488236 485235
      482234 482229 478226 475226 469230 465230 461231 454235
      442240 438242 437243 439246 444248 448250 451249 460250
      467252 470255 473259 473268 475278 479281 484282 492284
      499286 503287 507285 509271 512272 514270 515267
 0.25 488864 488853 486846 483840 478838 474838 473835 471834
      468836 461846 453854 449858 445862 443868 443873 445873
      455869 460864 463859 467854 472852 477853 481857 485862
      488864
 0.25 468222 468220 468219 466218 464217 463217 461217 460217
      459218 458219 457220 456221 457222 458224 459225 460225
      461226 463226 464226 465225 466224 467223 468222
 0.25 479832 479825 477822 474822 472821 472818 474815 474810
      469807 460809 454813 453817 454823 460827 463829 467827
      470825 472825 477831 479832
 0.25 435245 434244 433243 431243 429242 428242 427243 425243
      424244 425244 427245 429245 431244 432244 434244 435245
 0.25 308810 306807 302805 298804 292804 287805 284808 288810
      291814 294816 298817 303818 306815 308811 308810
 0.25 295891 294888 293885 291883 289881 287879 285879 283880
      281882 280885 280890 281894 284896 286897 289897 292895
      294893 295891
 0.25 281809 281805 280800 279798 278794 276793 274791 271791
      269793 268796 268798 268802 269806 269808 271811 273812
      277813 280811 281809
 0.25 281987 281981 279977 272974 263970 255967 246965 237966
      235969 236972 238975 243977 248977 257980 264983 273986
      277987 281987
 0.50 512263 513258 512253 510245 508237 504229 501222 499218
      495216 492218 492225 493233 497241 501246 505253 509262
      512263
 0.50 505282 505272 504265 496252 489239 484239 482237 481233
      479229 475228 471231 468233 464233 460236 457238 455240
      457243 460244 468247 475250 480254 484260 486267 489273
      494279 499282 503283 505282
 0.50 275805 275803 275801 275799 274797 273795 271795 270798
      270799 270800 270802 270803 271804 272806 273807 274806
      275805
 0.50 252972 250972 249972 250972 252972 252972
 1.00 502275 503269 500264 499261 496257 494252 491248 488244
      487246 488252 489257 491261 493266 496270 498274 502276
      502275
 1.00 505242 503239 501236 500232 499229 499227 498223 495223
      495228 495231 496236 497238 500240 502242 505242
 1.00 480244 480241 480239 479236 479235 478233 478232 476231
      475232 474232 473234 472234 471236 471238 471241 473243
      474243 476244 478245 480244 480244
 1.50 477238 477236 476235 475235 476236 476237 477238 477238

$$





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