Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 200601
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 20/1200 UTC THRU SEP 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...JOSE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND...


...SERN NEW ENGLAND...

BANDED RAINS ASSOCIATED FROM WITH THE NHC OFFSHORE TRACK OF JOSE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAY1. WRAPPED
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION OFFERS MARGINAL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES STEMING FROM ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ON TAP FOR CAPE COD AND MARTHA`S VINEYARD
UPWARDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NANTUCKET IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
JOSE. THIS MAINTAINS CLOSE WPC CONTINUITY.


...NWRN US...

A BROAD MEAN TROF WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD OVER THE NW QUARTER OF
THE NATION/SW CANADA AS ENERGIES/HEIGHT FALLS DIG OVER THE NWRN US
DAY1. WHILE MOISTURE IS MODEST...CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS FROM
THE OREGON CASCADES WEST TO THE OREGON COAST RANGE DOWN INTO THE
NW CA COASTAL RANGE. MODEL COMPOSITE WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD
TERRAIN ENHANCED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIP TOTALS THEN
SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA/NV AND ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM
INTO ID/WRN MT AND NW WY WHERE EARLY SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOWS
REMAIN LIKELY. PLEASE SEE WPC WINTER WEATHER DESK PRODUCTS FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.


...UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE MID-MS
VALLEY/S-CENTRAL PLAINS...

MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWINGING HEIGHT
FALLS THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO S-CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING. STRONG LIFT IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED PW VALUES AHEAD OF
THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. ADDITONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY ALONG/AHEAD OF A WAVY TRAILING FRONT WITH RETURN MOISTURE
INFLOW/INSTABILITY/IMPULSE ENERGY IN THE WAKE OF MAIN SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE...BUT DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN. ACCORDINGLY...ONLY BLENDED
WPC CONTINUITY WITH SOME HEAVIER QPF DETAILS TRENDING FROM THE 00
UTC ARW/NMMB GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL CELL TRAINING SUPPORT.


SCHICHTEL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 452626 456628 459630 464635 466644 464653 461661 457667
      453674 448678 439690 435697 431704 428711 425717 422721
      419720 412722 407723 404725 398729 390730 385726 375717
      365708 360701 359693 360687 361684 364676 370663 374657
      380653 389650 395647 404644 411644 418643 426640 434637
      439638 445634 450627
 0.01 563035 563015 564996 562983 561974 560968 558955 556946
      555943 556939 558936 562923 563918 563910 560896 554867
      552861 552853 548846 540842 533840 524836 522829 519825
      513817 513810 512803 510799 507795 504795 500795 492798
      487800 484804 468816 453827 446831 440837 434843 429852
      422858 417863 415866 413871 407873 396873 389874 395881
      399890 401896 401903 397911 391920 385929 379937 370951
      367959 362967 359973 356977 349984 342989 340991 345991
      374975 381970 386965 390962 395961 399959 402955 407947
      412936 417931 420928 423927 424931 424933 428931 437927
      442926 448926 452928 457928 470937 484948 490955 497964
      502970 508980 520992 525998 527002 529007 534035 536038
      536043 535052 533058 533064 529090 528095 523096 518095
      514097 511098 508101 506106 504112 506127 502139 500141
      498140 496137 490130 482126 475121 473113 475108 475105
      471102 466101 465098 468096 469092 466090 462091 458092
      448090 453086 454081 453077 451066 449063 444063 436066
      432073 436076 441077 442081 441086 438089 423086 422091
      424096 419106 420110 419113 415114 411115 415122 413127
      410128 406128 403132 398140 393149 391155 389161 385170
      384178 379180 373182 362181 358183 360186 369191 383206
      392213 400217 403219 404223 400224 396223 391223 389225
      385229 385232 388241 392249 403256 407258 411258 419258
      428258 437258 445257 451257 455256 462250 466248 469243
      471238 472231 474226 477223 479221 483220 491226 494228
      498228 503223 502217 503214 505216 507220 508227 510237
      515246 518249 520246 523243 526238 530227 537202
 0.01 537202 539197 541190 544179 547167 548159 549153 551138
      554124 556109 557103 558095 559081 559076 560070 560054
      561037 563035
 0.01 503210 501196 501187 499183 494179 488178 479173 475172
      473175 472181 470187 467192 466200 466207 471208 474206
      484201 492201 500208 501211 503210
 0.01 412207 412205 411204 412202 411200 409202 408204 407206
      408207 409208 411208 412207
 0.01 414816 414809 412807 408805 407807 405806 402802 398795
      393788 388784 384783 379784 375785 373787 362797 361794
      362791 361789 360784 361778 361774 362769 357771 350773
      345776 341777 331787 326793 321795 319797 316804 315807
      315812 317815 312817 308822 313828 318832 321835 325836
      329831 335831 338829 339825 341826 341836 341839 345842
      353842 356836 358832 362830 367829 369827 371824 375822
      381818 384816 389816 395819 408822 411821 413819 414816
 0.01 400192 401188 402183 401180 399183 397185 395185 393187
      391188 388189 386191 387194 390195 393196 396196 398194
      400192
 0.01 328986 328980 326982 322988 319998 315007 313011 310014
      305008 296008 293008 289005 283005 280006 280012 278016
      274015 270017 271020 274024 273033 269040 266044 261045
      253040 249039 246036 242034 239033 235031 231032 229035
      228041 227049 227055 230058 237063 243068 245070 244073
      246076 256079 262084 269088 279090 288090 295086 296081
      298078 300073 301066 305057 309049 308041 308033 310029
      311023 313020 322005 326995 326988 328986
 0.01 318941 318934 316930 313928 308928 296938 292940 286940
      282938 277939 274941 274945 276948 276953 270958 264964
      259970 259975 263977 272978 281977 285975 290975 294974
      296970 295966 292962 297963 301964 305962 309956 318941
 0.01 312871 312863 310858 309852 307848 304843 301840 295840
      294845 291850 290856 290859 291866 292873 294878 298887
      304895 308897 311892 311887 311883 312879 311873 312871
 0.01 289801 283792 282788 280787 274786 270781 269779 266779
      264780 264784 263790 259795 257800 254801 252803 252810
      254816 257820 261824 264830 267829 269827 272822 277813
      279807 284807 288805 289801
 0.25 550110 550107 550104 550103 548104 548107 547109 547112
      548113 548112 549110 550110
 0.25 539178 541166 543154 543142 542133 539126 534126 529130
      525136 520151 515153 509150 505149 503151 504157 505160
      509165 515169 522176 527181 532185 534188 536187 539179
      539178
 0.25 548890 547881 544877 541873 537871 527868 518866 518853
      519848 518844 516839 512836 508836 506843 506846 511851
      515854 516857 515860 509861 487864 470877 461883 453887
      443893 441897 445897 454893 460891 463891 468894 472899
      477907 482909 487909 491912 492919 493924 495927 500927
      511928 515931 517936 518946 520952 525962 531971 535975
      541976 544971 545963 544954 542947 538936 526916 523911
      520906 521902 524899 529897 535899 539901 543902 547896
      548890
 0.25 490139 489137 487135 486134 486133 484132 483130 481129
      480128 478129 477129 476131 474131 476132 477133 479133
      481134 482135 483135 484136 485137 486139 487139 489141
      490139
 0.25 467225 469218 468214 460210 454206 447208 442213 435215
      429216 426217 424220 425227 424232 421233 414235 408239
      406243 407246 414248 423249 430249 443247 456242 458240
      460237 462231 464229 467225
 0.25 470160 472154 471150 466145 461141 459135 456135 454138
      449143 443143 437141 435149 436158 440163 445167 449174
      449177 448181 446183 445188 447194 452200 455198 457194
      460189 462186 463181 462172 464167 466166 470160
 0.25 457115 459110 458106 457100 453095 448094 439093 434094
      430090 426092 427096 429100 427106 425112 420123 417131
      415135 413139 413143 409146 405148 401153 398159 394160
      390164 388169 387173 388176 390177 392176 396172 398166
      400160 406159 410156 414153 417148 421144 426134 429127
      432124 438122 442123 446123 451122 457115
 0.25 463861 462857 460855 456855 453857 449860 445864 441868
      437873 433877 433880 435880 440878 444875 449872 454869
      459865 463861
 0.25 433669 433662 431656 429646 424646 420647 412649 404652
      395656 387660 382665 377673 375680 375687 375693 379702
      383711 388716 395720 400720 404719 412715 418709 423702
      426695 430686 432677 433669
 0.25 435899 433897 431898 426902 421905 415903 410908 407912
      398923 394929 391935 385947 387951 390950 397949 402945
      405940 411926 414920 419916 425912 429908 433904 435899
 0.25 430890 429886 427885 425887 423889 422891 420895 419898
      418900 417903 419904 420902 422900 424898 426895 428893
      430890
 0.25 406213 405211 404210 404209 402209 401211 402212 403213
      405214 406213
 0.25 387201 386199 385198 384197 383195 381193 381192 380191
      378190 376190 375191 376193 377196 378196 379197 380198
      382199 383200 384200 385201 387201 387201
 0.25 281800 281798 279797 279796 277795 275795 273794 271794
      270795 268796 268797 268798 269800 270800 272801 273801
      274801 276802 278802 279802 281800 281800
 0.25 275079 274073 273070 268063 261058 254054 245051 241049
      237049 237055 239058 246063 252069 258075 265080 272081
      275079
 0.50 536169 537164 537158 537153 536150 534148 531149 529151
      528153 527156 525160 523163 526166 527167 530168 533170
      536169
 0.50 520162 520159 518159 517159 518160 519162 520162 520162
 0.50 461223 461220 459219 454217 444215 437217 429221 428222
      428225 430229 431234 428236 424239 426240 431241 435241
      441236 444233 447231 454226 457223 461223
 0.50 464159 465153 463149 460147 457147 451151 447151 443149
      441149 439151 439155 441159 447162 450166 451171 452181
      452184 455184 456174 457169 459165 463160 464159
 0.50 451110 452102 450098 439097 434097 431094 429096 432099
      432104 430109 429113 426117 423126 426127 428123 430120
      434118 438116 443116 447116 450112 451110
 0.50 428673 427661 424653 421651 417650 410652 397658 391663
      386668 382676 380684 379693 382702 387710 391715 397717
      402717 406715 412711 417707 421700 425693 427686 428676
      428673
 0.50 393170 394168 394167 392167 390166 390167 389169 389171
      389173 389174 391174 393172 393171 393170
 0.50 407929 408924 406922 403921 401924 400926 398928 396931
      395933 394936 394940 395943 396942 400941 402940 403937
      405933 406931 407929
 1.00 449224 449222 448221 447220 445219 443219 442219 441219
      440220 439221 439224 441225 442226 444226 446226 448225
      449224
 1.00 444108 444106 442104 441105 440105 439107 440109 442109
      444109 444108
 1.00 424682 424672 421663 419659 413656 408657 403660 395668
      390674 388678 385684 384690 385697 388705 391709 395712
      402713 408710 413707 417702 420697 422692 424682
 1.50 422680 421672 419666 416662 412660 406662 402666 399669
      396674 390682 388687 387693 389701 392706 394710 400711
      406709 411706 414703 418698 420694 421687 422680
 2.00 421680 419673 417669 412663 409664 404668 399674 394682
      391690 391697 392704 395708 398710 408707 411704 414701
      418693 420683 421680
 3.00 419681 416674 413671 410671 404675 399681 395687 394694
      396703 398706 401706 408705 413699 416691 418683 419681
 4.00 416684 413677 409675 404680 401683 398688 397696 399702
      404704 409701 412697 414690 416684
 5.00 412692 412687 411683 410680 408681 405683 403685 402688
      400691 400695 401699 404701 406700 407700 410697 411695
      412692

$$




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