Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FXUS04 KWBC 151853

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion
Valid May 16/0000 UTC thru May 17/0000 UTC
Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr

Day 1...

...Upper Ohio Valley---Central Appalachians into the

Much above average pw values 1.5 to 2.5+ standard deviations above
the mean expected to persist day 1 along the west to east oriented
stationary front forecast to lie from the Ohio Valley---through
the Central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic.  Persistent
low level southerly flow into this front and enhanced large scale
accent from shortwave energy moving parallel to this boundary will
support a good chance of widespread moderate to heavy precip
totals across these areas.  Lower confidence with some of the
shorter term qpf details---but overall higher confidence on the
widespread moderate to heavy totals given the overall favorable
pattern.  No changes made to the previous marginal to slight risk
area aligned parallel to the front across these areas.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic---Southern Appalachians---Southeast into

To the south of the above mentioned west to east front---pw values
will also remain much above average through the southern
Mid-Atlantic---Southern Appalachians--Southeast and across
Florida.  The slow moving closed low over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico off the northwest Florida coast will continue to provide a
broadly diffluent pattern to its northeast in this anomalous pw
axis across Florida---the Southeast---Southern Appalachians and
into the southern Mid-Atlantic.  While there are the typical
smaller scale qpf differences among the models---overall there is
very good agreement on widespread moderate to heavy totals.  The
Southern Appalachians in the vicinity of northeast Georgia---the
Upstate of South Carolina and into western North Carolina likely
will have the greatest precipitation potential ahead of this upper
low as uvvs will be enhanced by southerly upslope flow.

...Southern Plains toward the Lower MS Valley...

The western portion of the stationary front across the Ohio Valley
will remain across the Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley.
Shortwave energy rounding the top of the shortwave ridge over the
Southern Plains tonight will push southeast toward the Lower MS
Valley on Wednesday.  Organized convection is possible along and
north of this front---with  model consensus of the qpf axis from
the TX/OK panhandle region---eastward across much of OK and into
western Arkansas.  Moderate to heavy precip totals possible in
this qpf axis---with the expected progressive nature of the
convection being a limiting factor on very heavy totals---although
no changes planned for the marginal flash flood risk area across
this area.

...Northern Sierra---Oregon---Northern Sierra into the Northern

The closed low off the central California coast will be kicking
northward the lead upper low over the Great Basin northward into
the Northern Rockies day 1 as it presses inland into northern
California Wednesday.  A broad area of upper difluence ahead of
each of these features will support a widespread area of scattered
precipitation from the Northern Sierra---across much of
Oregon---the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies.  Model
consensus for the greatest totals is from the northern
Sierra---northern California into the Cascades of Oregon to the
north of the closed low moving into northern California Wednesday.
 No changes made to the marginal risk area to the north of this
closed low where pw values will remain much above average.



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