Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 071032 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 632 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front exits south. A disturbance rotates along the front providing showers/storms thru evening. High pressure Thursday. Upper level disturbance Friday. Dry Saturday. Cold front Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Wednesday... An exiting cold front may slow down across our south as an upper level disturbance slides through and rotates around our southern periphery creating more chances for showers/storms through this afternoon and into the evening over southern WV and southwest VA. However, expect mostly sunny conditions today elsewhere as the rest of the area gets to endure mid 70`s with 60`s in the mountains under cloud free skies. Modest northwesterly surface flow with keep the rest of the area dry and fairly cooler than average as temperatures will stay below seasonable. Chance of showers/storms will exit by this evening as the disturbance exits to our south and with lowering wind speeds, clear skies and with some decent radiational cooling, valley fog will definitely have potential to make an appearance late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Wednesday... A high pressure system will build in and provide dry weather for Thursday. Cooler air will remain over the area, with temperatures below normal for this time of year. Expect lows in the 40s, with some 30s possible in the colder spots of the northern mountains for Thursday night. Surface high pressure will continue over the area on Friday while an upper level disturbance moves through. This could produce an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over central Ohio and northern and eastern West Virginia. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 AM Wednesday... As the high pressure system shifts eastward on Saturday, temperatures will warm some with dry weather. Moisture in advance of an approaching cold front will provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Models are coming into better agreement, showing the front pushing through on Monday. Below normal temperatures can once again be expected behind the front on Tuesday. An upper low will linger north of the area, providing some energy and moisture for showers and possibly thunderstorms on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Wednesday... A cold front is moving south which, may stall just south of us later on during the daytime although any shower activity will be south of all sites. Currently, most terminals are now back to VFR but a few have restrictions for fog. Mainly just EKN is socked in with 1/4SM VIS and BKW is the other one with only 6SM BR. A few others have some patchy fog around the vicinity, but all fog will burn off by 13Z, EKN maybe slightly longer. By the afternoon, dry and sunny skies are expected along with VFR conditions for the rest of this period. There may be some valley fog formation for the overnight affecting some terminals once again. EKN is a good candidate for this, so are the other terminal. However, surface flow may be strong enough to hold off HTS/PKB, possibly CRW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 06/07/23 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M L L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.