Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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425 FXUS61 KRLX 171038 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 638 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and upper ridge dominate this week. A cold front approaches by the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 635 AM Tuesday... Quiet weather so far this morning...adjusted temperatures and dew points based on current obs and trends. As of 125 AM Tuesday... A weak area of low pressure is still drifting its way across the central and southern mountains with a cold front extending southwest from there. This will continue across the mountains through the pre-dawn hours. Todays forecast is pretty dependent on which side of the Appalachian spine you are on. West of the mountains, high pressure skirting by to the north will bring a dry, sunny and warm day. East of the mountains, upslope flow will keep more clouds and weak cold air damming in place. This upslope flow should also lead to isolated to scattered showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder along the mountain ridges and eastern slopes. Low stratus will develop/linger across the eastern slopes tonight, with clearer skies west of the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Tuesday... An elongated surface high pressure system will extend from the northeastern states southwest into the Appalachians. This high will drop south moving overhead through the weekend to provide dry and warm conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal and also on the decline with mid 80`s for highs and 50`s possibly into the 60`s for lows into Thursday as a cooler airmass slides closer in to the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Tuesday... Sunday night remains tranquil ahead of an approaching cold front. The front approaches southeast Ohio Monday, and crosses Tuesday. Chances for showers and storms will increase Monday night into Tuesday of next week. Temperatures will remains above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 635 AM Tuesday... Any lingering fog will dissipate quickly over the next couple hours. West of the mountains, expect quite weather and VFR conditions today. Across the mountains and eastern slopes, expect showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to develop with SE flow. This flow should also lead to low stratus by tonight -- possibly impacting BKW. EKN should see dense valley fog again tonight. Also included some IFR at CKB. May eventually need to expand IFR fog to other lowland sites as well, but with dry ground fog has been tough to come by recently. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M L M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L L H H M M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Early morning dense river valley fog possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.