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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 030122
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
822 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in today begins a long stretch of dry
weather lasting clear through the weekend. Low pressure passes
south of the area tonight. Cold front crosses Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 820 PM Tuesday...

Gently nudged temperatures and wind closer to the observations
and stretched out trends through Wednesday. Added some cold
spot climatology to the mix as well since mostly clear skies
and light wind will allow for optimal radiational cooling
overnight into the morning. Thinking with low dewpoints
temperatures will have slightly more potential to fall further
than previous min temperatures in such areas like valleys and
known cold areas.

As of 630 PM Tuesday...

The forecast remains on track and no changes were made at this
time.

As of 104 PM Tuesday...

Allowed to expire areal flood warnings across portions of the
southern coalfields as water levels of streams, creeks and
rivers have dropped below flood stage and are continuing
dropping. Kept a flood warning across counties next the OH River
as on the Ohio, water levels are rising above flood state. In
fact, water levels are above moderate flood state at Belleville
and Point Pleasant. These river water levels will continue high
for the next 12 to 24 hours.

Surface high pressure system to prevail with mostly clear
skies, and seasonable temperatures through the period. Winds
will be light and variable.

A low pressure system passes south of the area tonight with
negligible impacts over our area other than high clouds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

Wednesday night, light precipitation may develop mainly in the
northeast mountains as a cold front descends into the CWA.
Precipitation would likely begin as sprinkles with light snow
possible in the higher elevations, and then transitions to
light snow or a wintry mix as temperatures fall overnight. Some
precipitation may linger into Thursday, though moisture will
decrease throughout the day as high pressure begins building in
from the west. Models indicate winds may be gusty during the day
Thursday after the front passes through, but winds should relax
overnight. High pressure is then expected to maintain dry and
quiet conditions through the remainder of the week though some
clouds may develop over the area Friday night as a shortwave
trough passes to our south.

Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
short term period with highs generally in the 40s in the
lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains. Lows will be in the
30s in the lowlands and 20s in the mountains Wednesday night,
then drop to the 20s and teens Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will generally remain in control this weekend,
though the GFS hints at a little light precipitation Saturday
night into Sunday with a passing upper level trough. For now
have leaned drier with the forecast as the chance for
precipitation is rather low. Dry conditions are expected to
continue into the beginning of the work week as high pressure
gradually moves off to the east.

Temperatures start out below normal, but are expected to warm
above normal, possibly into the 60s in the lowlands, by the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies prevail during this
period with light flow gradually picking up to about 5-10KT out
of the southwest by Wednesday afternoon. Not out of the question
to see some light gusts into the teens throughout the daytime.
A small upper level shortwave is prog to slide east, just north
of the area, bringing down some cloud coverage into the
nighttime and will mainly be confined to the mountains. Some
MVFR may sneak into CKB/EKN early Thursday morning with the rest
of the terminals likely under partly cloud skies.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions in the foreseeable future.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ/JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JZ