Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 312248 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 648 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Storm system moves across south spreading rain across the area, with some high elevation snow. Drying and warmer from mid week into the start of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... As of 540 PM Tuesday... Will update the forecast to increase chances of rain late this afternoon and evening for much of the forecast area. As of 1245 PM Tuesday... A few changes made to the previous forecast. Rain has overspread southern areas this afternoon, and will continue to spread northward as low across deep south, and upper shortwave trough continue to move east. Latest model runs indicate the possibility of somewhat heavier QPF across the south, and went ahead with this thinking based on recent radar returns/water vapor imagery, and observations which indicate over a third of an inch has fallen already in some of our extreme southern zones. This new thinking generally puts a solid half to 0.8 inches of rain across much of the mountains, with higher amounts approaching an inch across extreme southern WV and southwest VA. Regardless with these higher amounts, still not expecting any significant water issues with overall duration of rain...but will still be a good soaker across the south none the less. With the higher qpf totals, also getting a little more snowfall across the higher terrain, generally above 3000 feet elevation, with accumulations of up to an inch and a half possible in some spots. Low and upper trough will move east of the area late tonight and on Wednesday, however, there will still be some lingering light precipitation across the area on Wednesday, and cool, in northerly/northwesterly flow. For low temperatures, kept them a little above guidance for tonight as anticipating little in way of a drop from todays highs. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Tuesday... Eradication of the low level moisture in the lowlands and eventually the mountains will turn lingering light precipitation to clearing and the potential for frost development in the lowland valleys. The airmass settling in is on the dry side, and with a warm up slated through the short term period, the temps will still be capable of falling off again Thursday night in good radiational cooling conditions, leaving the area with two nights of concern in terms of frost/freeze potential. Also may need to drop the dewpoints Thursday upon mixing with very dry air above. Otherwise, dry through the period in a warming trend overall. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230M Tuesday... Weakening upper level wave and associated surface front eventually trudges into the region amidst the continuing warming trend on the front end of the long term period. This actually lends to a bit of a lower confidence in the long term with that system as it appears it may dissolve out completely, or perhaps stall over the region with lingering spotty precipitation from later on Sunday onward. The forecast sides with the latter right now, but in the end no significant weather systems appear to be on the horizon. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 640 PM Tuesday... A low pressure system over the southeastern US was producing rain over the area. The rain will gradually move off to the east overnight. Expect lower conditions this evening in rain and clouds over VA and southeastern WV, with MVFR conditions over western and northern WV, and VFR conditions in far northwestern WV and much of Ohio. These conditions in the cloud deck will generally persist through night, although northwestern WV and Ohio may become MVFR. Visibility restrictions from rain should improve late tonight. Ceilings will gradually improve on Wednesday, with much of the area becoming VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings could be higher or lower than forecast. Timing of any improvement on Wednesday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M L M L L L L M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M M L H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H M M H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/SL NEAR TERM...RPY/SL SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.