-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
711
FXUS61 KRLX 142307
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
607 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold with chances for snow showers through midweek as more
disturbances plague the area. Briefly warmer Friday and Saturday
ahead of an active weekend. Much colder next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 605 PM Tuesday...

Snow showers are streaming into the area from the northwest and
will continue to travel across the area tonight. Have freshened
up PoPs to better reflect the current progression of these snow
showers. Otherwise, no significant changes have been made in
the near term forecast period.

As of 1244 PM Tuesday...

A quick-moving clipper system and a reinforcing cold front will
cross the region this evening, providing a quick burst of snow
shower activity, mainly from I-64 northward. This will be
followed by another shot of arctic cold air. The issue with the
snow shower activity expected later today is the timing, which
happens to be right around the evening commute. Gusty winds out
of the west-northwest 15-25 kts in addition to the snow could
create hazardous road conditions and reduced visibility. Be sure
to take it slow if driving through a snow shower later today.
Not much snow accumulation is expected, only up to an inch or
two in the highest elevations with little to no accumulation
expected elsewhere. However, any heavier snow shower can provide
a quick coating, which can be slick to drive and walk on.

Cold weather advisories and extreme cold warnings continue as
planned. Expect very cold air overnight with wind chills
dropping as low as 20 below zero in the higher elevations of the
northern mountains, with near zero wind chills across the lower
elevations. Be sure to cover all exposed skin to avoid
hypothermia and frost bite.

Wednesday should be a rather quiet day as clouds mix with some
sunshine under high pressure. A quick flurry or light snow
shower cannot be ruled out over the higher ridges, but the
chance was low enough to exclude it from the forecast at this
time with low-level dry air moving back over the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

Outside of a few lingering flurries along the mountains
Wednesday night, quiet weather briefly takes hold in between
passing clipper systems. Abundantly cold temperatures will
continue to rule the roost, with most locations in the forecast
area waking up to Thursday morning low temperatures in the
single digits/low teens. Additional cold headlines may be
warranted along the higher ridgetops of the mountains as wind
chills tumble down to near minus 10 degrees.

Renewed chances for snow showers quickly arrive after daybreak
Thursday morning in response to the next disturbance dropping
down from the Great Lakes. Opted to increases POPs, especially
along the higher terrain, in comparison to central guidance, as
there is a strong signal for heavier snow bands extending
further south than previous forecast cycles denoted. A new 1 to
3 inches of fresh snow may tack onto the linger snowpack along
the mountains, while a few tenths of an inch to an inch and a
half could be observed across the lower elevations. Showers
taper off to flurries on Friday as high pressure noses in.

Increasing upper level heights insinuate moderating
temperatures taking hold for the end of the work week. Lowland
areas will encroach the low to mid 40s by Friday afternoon while
our higher mountain zones could branch above freezing. This will
begin to chip away at the wintry precipitation loitering from
previous weather events in the past week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

Fleetingly dry weather becomes overran by a strengthening
southern stream disturbance overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. Overnight temperatures will dictate onset
precipitation, with lower elevations starting off as rain, while
sub-freezing temperatures along the spine of the Appalachians
set up a trickier forecast, with a mixture of snow, freezing
rain, and freezing drizzle all in the cards for Saturday
morning. Another diurnal rise into the 30s/40s during the day
will yield a change over to rain for some of the lower
foothills, while still battling with a rain/snow mix across
elevations higher than 3,000ft AGL.

This fragmented disturbance will cross into the Atlantic late
Saturday night, but leaving behind a resurgence of moisture to
maintain showers into the second half of the weekend. The base
of an upper level trough propagating through the Ohio Valley
will usher in colder air temperatures overnight Saturday into
Sunday, leading to a widespread change from rain to snow. This
will be a gradual process, which could result in localized
pockets of a full transition over to snow, while locations a
county or two over still stuck in a rain/snow regime during the
predawn hours. Snow then encompasses the entire forecast area
for the majority of the day Sunday and into the first half of
the day Monday. Measurable snow accumulations would be plausible
with this set up, but the forecast remains too far out to hedge
one`s bets on definitive totals.

Another burst of very cold air settles into the area for the
start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 605 PM Tuesday...

Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR in snow
showers tonight. With potential for blowing snow due to gusty winds,
even worse visibilities could be possible at times. Snow
tapers off for the lowlands overnight, while flurries could
linger near EKN into Wednesday morning. Visibilities should
improve with the end of precipitation; however, ceilings may be
slower to improve, with pockets of MVFR potentially maintaining
residence near the northern terminals and along the mountains
on Wednesday.

Gusty winds should gradually weaken overnight, then light west
to southwest winds are expected for the remainder of the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of snow related
restrictions could vary from the forecast. End time of snow
could also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible again Thursday and Thursday night
with snow showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for WVZ516-518-520-522-524-525.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ523-
     526.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB