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425
FXUS61 KRLX 171038
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and upper ridge dominate this week. A cold front
approaches by the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM Tuesday...

Quiet weather so far this morning...adjusted temperatures and
dew points based on current obs and trends.

As of 125 AM Tuesday...

A weak area of low pressure is still drifting its way across the
central and southern mountains with a cold front extending
southwest from there. This will continue across the mountains
through the pre-dawn hours.

Todays forecast is pretty dependent on which side of the
Appalachian spine you are on. West of the mountains, high
pressure skirting by to the north will bring a dry, sunny and
warm day. East of the mountains, upslope flow will keep more
clouds and weak cold air damming in place. This upslope flow
should also lead to isolated to scattered showers, and maybe a
rumble of thunder along the mountain ridges and eastern slopes.
Low stratus will develop/linger across the eastern slopes
tonight, with clearer skies west of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

An elongated surface high pressure system will extend from the
northeastern states southwest into the Appalachians. This high
will drop south moving overhead through the weekend to provide
dry and warm conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal
and also on the decline with mid 80`s for highs and 50`s
possibly into the 60`s for lows into Thursday as a cooler
airmass slides closer in to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Sunday night remains tranquil ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front approaches southeast Ohio Monday, and crosses
Tuesday. Chances for showers and storms will increase Monday
night into Tuesday of next week. Temperatures will remains above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM Tuesday...

Any lingering fog will dissipate quickly over the next couple
hours. West of the mountains, expect quite weather and VFR
conditions today. Across the mountains and eastern slopes,
expect showers and maybe a rumble of thunder to develop with SE
flow. This flow should also lead to low stratus by tonight --
possibly impacting BKW. EKN should see dense valley fog again
tonight. Also included some IFR at CKB. May eventually need to
expand IFR fog to other lowland sites as well, but with dry
ground fog has been tough to come by recently.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of fog may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Early morning dense river valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ