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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071032
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
632 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits south. A disturbance rotates along the front
providing showers/storms thru evening. High pressure Thursday.
Upper level disturbance Friday. Dry Saturday. Cold front Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

An exiting cold front may slow down across our south as an
upper level disturbance slides through and rotates around our
southern periphery creating more chances for showers/storms
through this afternoon and into the evening over southern WV
and southwest VA. However, expect mostly sunny conditions today
elsewhere as the rest of the area gets to endure mid 70`s with
60`s in the mountains under cloud free skies. Modest
northwesterly surface flow with keep the rest of the area dry
and fairly cooler than average as temperatures will stay below
seasonable. Chance of showers/storms will exit by this evening
as the disturbance exits to our south and with lowering wind
speeds, clear skies and with some decent radiational cooling,
valley fog will definitely have potential to make an appearance
late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

A high pressure system will build in and provide dry weather
for Thursday. Cooler air will remain over the area, with
temperatures below normal for this time of year. Expect lows in
the 40s, with some 30s possible in the colder spots of the
northern mountains for Thursday night.

Surface high pressure will continue over the area on Friday
while an upper level disturbance moves through. This could
produce an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over central Ohio
and northern and eastern West Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Wednesday...

As the high pressure system shifts eastward on Saturday,
temperatures will warm some with dry weather.

Moisture in advance of an approaching cold front will provide
a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Models are
coming into better agreement, showing the front pushing through
on Monday. Below normal temperatures can once again be expected
behind the front on Tuesday. An upper low will linger north of
the area, providing some energy and moisture for showers and
possibly thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

A cold front is moving south which, may stall just south of us
later on during the daytime although any shower activity will be
south of all sites. Currently, most terminals are now back to
VFR but a few have restrictions for fog. Mainly just EKN is
socked in with 1/4SM VIS and BKW is the other one with only 6SM
BR. A few others have some patchy fog around the vicinity, but
all fog will burn off by 13Z, EKN maybe slightly longer. By the
afternoon, dry and sunny skies are expected along with VFR
conditions for the rest of this period. There may be some valley
fog formation for the overnight affecting some terminals once
again. EKN is a good candidate for this, so are the other
terminal. However, surface flow may be strong enough to hold off
HTS/PKB, possibly CRW.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 06/07/23
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ