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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241812
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
212 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level system crosses to our south tonight and continues to
spread bands of showers into the region. Southern system may
graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold front Friday
night or Saturday. High Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 215 PM Tuesday...

The slow moving upper level low continues to edge closer to the
region. This system will cross to our south later tonight,
spreading bands of rain showers across the area through
tomorrow...with greatest rain chances tomorrow expected in the
mountains. Although the unsettled weather with mostly cloudy
skies will persist through the period, temperatures will at
least be close to normal, as highs should climb into the low 60s
by tomorrow afternoon in the Lowlands and 50s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Showers will tapper off by late Wednesday as the upper low
moves off to the east.

Considerable differences exists with the next system late
Thursday into Friday. GFS is much further north than other
models and would require much higher pops. With other models in
relatively decent agreement, will discount the GFS for now, but
will need to keep an eye on this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Models showing a cold front or two for Friday night and
Saturday. While models agree on the general pattern, there are
differences in the timing and amount of moisture available to
the fronts.

A high pressure system will then build in and provide dry
weather for the rest of the weekend and into the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...

Upper level will continue to impact our region, passing to our south
tonight. Bands of showers will pivot through the area.
Restrictions are to be expected in the heavier showers, however
as the low passes, lower cigs to our west will drift into the
Ohio Valley. This will result in MVFR to IFR bases
overspreading the lowland terminals and eventually straight IFR
later tonight. BKW will see their cigs lower into low end MVFR
or high end IFR later this afternoon/evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions will likely
vary from current forecast tomorrow.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible Wednesday in showers and low stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK