Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211926 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 226 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Chilly high pressure into midweek. Warming second half of week. Next storm system over the weekend brings rain and some snow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 110 PM Tuesday... With some lingering steep lapse rates in place beneath the inversion, the Arctic airmass and shallow moisture depth has been efficiently used to squeeze out every possible flurry with weak diurnal heating. This convection is already eroding along the western and northern fringes, and a clearer sky regime will likely be in place this evening and into the overnight. Expecting good radiational cooling with a light covering in places, so have gone a bit below guidance in several places, especially the mountain valleys and usual cold spots in these scenarios. With the flurries ending, forecast is dry through Wednesday, and clear as well from 00Z Wednesday onward. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM Tuesday... High pressure will continue to provide the area with reprieve which will keep things dry with the beginning of a slight warming trend. Temperatures will start off cooler, although right around normal, for lows overnight Wednesday as the cold air sticks around for one more day. However, this will slowly morph into a warming spell with highs reaching into the upper 40`s and even low 50`s in some locations which will feel like summer compared to the temperatures we`ve been having. The high pressure will make its way out of the area and slide east through Thursday allowing a large double barrel low to approach the area from the west. The potential for warm frontal boundary showers increase and should overspread the area by Thursday night. With temperatures dropping to near freezing, although warmer than seasonable, there is a chane for a wintry mix mainly confined to the higher elevations and should become all rain by Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... As the aforementioned surface low moves northeast through Friday, warm stratiform rain showers will continue to overspread the area and with PWATs 2 standard deviations above the climatological norm, there should be sufficient dynamics in this large system to produce a nice rainmaker for the rest of Friday. The column will start off warm, with wetbulb temps too high and moisture not being in the preferred ice growth layer until a cold frontal passage takes place Saturday morning creating potential for a wintry mix along and on the backside of the frontal boundary. Since models indicate strong frontogenetical forcing, ideal upper level dynamics, colder temps/wetbulbs, I added more snow into the forecast to start Saturday morning off since snowfall rates will be able to overcome any warmth leftover in the layer. This will be ideal in the mountains where most of the accumulation will occur. The surface low will eventually move off to the northeast and wrap around flow will cause all precip to transition to snow (even in lower elevations) for what looks to be the rest of the weekend. High pressure does build in on Sunday, however only some snow showers may linger in the mountains through Monday due to upslope effect. This will largely depend on angel of velocity which will rely on how much the mountains see as far as accumulations go. Models do hint at another large system which may affect the area during midweek, next week. As previously mentioned, temperatures transition from a slight warming associated with a warm front to a more climatological norm for the rest of this period. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM Tuesday... Stratocumulus deck has evolved into a convective deck still pumping out some flurries for some sites at this hour. This should be short lived as we finally lose the remaining depth to the lower level moisture. Until it dissolves out, MVFR ceilings prevail for the not Ohio River terminals for 2-4 hours. Clear skies and a quiet and calm VFR forecast is expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR eradication may vary slightly.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in rain Friday through Saturday && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/JZ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...26

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