Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131607 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1107 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Any remaining freezing rain transitions to rain this afternoon. Active pattern persists through the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Friday... Trimmed some counties across northern WV from the Winter Weather Advisory with precip winding down and temperatures slowly rising above freezing. Remaining counties still have a few spots at or just below freezing, but still anticipate dropping them before the current 3 PM expiration. Made some tweaks to the hourly temperature grids to reflect current conditions and afternoon trend, but otherwise current forecast on track. As of 625 AM Friday... Elected to add a few counties across northern WV to the freezing rain advisory. Reasoning is several locations were in the mid to upper 20s, and felt enough freezing rain would accumulate to go ahead and warrant an advisory. Temperatures are already rising above freezing this morning across southern advisory zones. Expect the advisory will be cancelled early in many spots, but will allow the day shift to make those decisions. As of 300 AM Friday... Overall forecast thinking remains the same. Cold air damming along higher terrain this morning, with surface high pressure located along the New England coast. Rather dry air in place this morning, but moistening quickly, as a shortwave moves east into the southeastern U.S. Most locations where moisture is starting to hit the ground are above freezing, but there are a few pockets where temperatures are hovering around freezing across parts of southwest VA and southern WV. However, think slick conditions will be very isolated, and temps are slowly climbing in spots. As the day progresses colder air will scour out, with a change over to rain expected area wide by 17Z. Current headlines/timing for winter weather advisory appear to be good at this time. In addition, expecting a lull in precipitation across much of the region outside of the mountains this afternoon/early evening, before an uptick occurs as an upper shortwave trough, and surface low affect the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 332 AM Friday... A rather wet Saturday morning is expected as nearly widespread rain occurs on the back side of the departing aforementioned surface low. Precip should gradually taper off from west to east in the afternoon and become more confined to the mountains by late in the day. By early evening, the thermal profile across the mountains should support a changeover from rain to snow with occasional snow showers occurring for much of the evening...possibly resulting in a few inches of accumulation in some areas. A few snow showers may persist into Sunday across the mountains, but the overall moisture availability on Sunday will result in much lower precip chances. Despite a quieter weather day on Sunday, another strong storm system is expected to arrive Sunday night into Monday. A deepening surface low is prog to shift NE out of the TN River Valley...but the ultimate track and timing is still rather uncertain. Depending on how far north/south the low tracks will impact how much snow our area does/does not receive. This forecast package indicates some minor accumulations across primarily SE OH and northern WV early Monday ahead of a warm front. Any snow that accumulates (if any) should then melt by midday as the warm front lifts north. The remainder of the area should experience all rain on Monday. A cold front is then prog to push east across the area Monday night into early Tuesday with temps on Tuesday likely falling through much of the day. A brief mix of snow with remnant rain showers may occur Tuesday afternoon, but moisture is expected to depart the area rather fast behind this system. The potential exists for significant changes to the forecast for early next week, given the current uncertainty regarding the track of the system. Temps on Saturday and Sunday will likely be rather chilly with cloud cover persisting. A notable warm up should occur on Monday in wake of the warm front, with cold and blustery conditions occurring on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 355 AM Friday... Precipitation is likely to end Wednesday morning as high pressure moves into the area. High pressure and below normal temperatures are expected through the end of this time period. Over all, the weather pattern looks to be much quieter for the second half of the work week. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 AM Friday... Areas of MVFR ceilings will develop across the area this morning and afternoon. Light freezing rain will continue across the mountains and parts of the lowlands, through at least 15Z-17Z. Areas across southern WV including at site KBKW have already warmed above freezing with a change over to rain from freezing rain. Gusty southeasterly winds can be expected across the higher terrain at times today including at site KBKW through 20Z, with gusts in the teens to lower 20 kts. Winds across lower elevation sites should remain east/southeasterly and light. An uptick in rain is expected after 00Z, along with widespread MVFR conditions. Expect widespread IFR after 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H L L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday, and in rain and snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ516-518-520-523-524-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/SL/JLB/JP NEAR TERM...JP/SL SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...SL

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