Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 030122 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 822 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in today begins a long stretch of dry weather lasting clear through the weekend. Low pressure passes south of the area tonight. Cold front crosses Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 820 PM Tuesday... Gently nudged temperatures and wind closer to the observations and stretched out trends through Wednesday. Added some cold spot climatology to the mix as well since mostly clear skies and light wind will allow for optimal radiational cooling overnight into the morning. Thinking with low dewpoints temperatures will have slightly more potential to fall further than previous min temperatures in such areas like valleys and known cold areas. As of 630 PM Tuesday... The forecast remains on track and no changes were made at this time. As of 104 PM Tuesday... Allowed to expire areal flood warnings across portions of the southern coalfields as water levels of streams, creeks and rivers have dropped below flood stage and are continuing dropping. Kept a flood warning across counties next the OH River as on the Ohio, water levels are rising above flood state. In fact, water levels are above moderate flood state at Belleville and Point Pleasant. These river water levels will continue high for the next 12 to 24 hours. Surface high pressure system to prevail with mostly clear skies, and seasonable temperatures through the period. Winds will be light and variable. A low pressure system passes south of the area tonight with negligible impacts over our area other than high clouds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... Wednesday night, light precipitation may develop mainly in the northeast mountains as a cold front descends into the CWA. Precipitation would likely begin as sprinkles with light snow possible in the higher elevations, and then transitions to light snow or a wintry mix as temperatures fall overnight. Some precipitation may linger into Thursday, though moisture will decrease throughout the day as high pressure begins building in from the west. Models indicate winds may be gusty during the day Thursday after the front passes through, but winds should relax overnight. High pressure is then expected to maintain dry and quiet conditions through the remainder of the week though some clouds may develop over the area Friday night as a shortwave trough passes to our south. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the short term period with highs generally in the 40s in the lowlands and 30s to 40s in the mountains. Lows will be in the 30s in the lowlands and 20s in the mountains Wednesday night, then drop to the 20s and teens Thursday and Friday nights. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... High pressure will generally remain in control this weekend, though the GFS hints at a little light precipitation Saturday night into Sunday with a passing upper level trough. For now have leaned drier with the forecast as the chance for precipitation is rather low. Dry conditions are expected to continue into the beginning of the work week as high pressure gradually moves off to the east. Temperatures start out below normal, but are expected to warm above normal, possibly into the 60s in the lowlands, by the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 645 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions and mostly clear skies prevail during this period with light flow gradually picking up to about 5-10KT out of the southwest by Wednesday afternoon. Not out of the question to see some light gusts into the teens throughout the daytime. A small upper level shortwave is prog to slide east, just north of the area, bringing down some cloud coverage into the nighttime and will mainly be confined to the mountains. Some MVFR may sneak into CKB/EKN early Thursday morning with the rest of the terminals likely under partly cloud skies. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions in the foreseeable future. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...JZ/JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...JZ

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