National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 131607
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1107 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Any remaining freezing rain transitions to rain this afternoon.
Active pattern persists through the weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Friday...

Trimmed some counties across northern WV from the Winter Weather
Advisory with precip winding down and temperatures slowly rising
above freezing. Remaining counties still have a few spots at or
just below freezing, but still anticipate dropping them before
the current 3 PM expiration.

Made some tweaks to the hourly temperature grids to reflect
current conditions and afternoon trend, but otherwise current
forecast on track.

As of 625 AM Friday...
Elected to add a few counties across northern WV to the freezing
rain advisory. Reasoning is several locations were in the mid to
upper 20s, and felt enough freezing rain would accumulate to go
ahead and warrant an advisory. Temperatures are already rising
above freezing this morning across southern advisory zones.
Expect the advisory will be cancelled early in many spots, but
will allow the day shift to make those decisions.

As of 300 AM Friday...

Overall forecast thinking remains the same. Cold air damming
along higher terrain this morning, with surface high pressure
located along the New England coast. Rather dry air in place
this morning, but moistening quickly, as a shortwave moves east
into the southeastern U.S. Most locations where moisture is
starting to hit the ground are above freezing, but there are a
few pockets where temperatures are hovering around freezing
across parts of southwest VA and southern WV. However, think
slick conditions will be very isolated, and temps are slowly
climbing in spots.

As the day progresses colder air will scour out, with a change
over to rain expected area wide by 17Z. Current headlines/timing
for winter weather advisory appear to be good at this time. In
addition, expecting a lull in precipitation across much of the
region outside of the mountains this afternoon/early evening,
before an uptick occurs as an upper shortwave trough, and
surface low affect the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 332 AM Friday...

A rather wet Saturday morning is expected as nearly widespread
rain occurs on the back side of the departing aforementioned
surface low. Precip should gradually taper off from west to east
in the afternoon and become more confined to the mountains by
late in the day. By early evening, the thermal profile across
the mountains should support a changeover from rain to snow with
occasional snow showers occurring for much of the
evening...possibly resulting in a few inches of accumulation in
some areas. A few snow showers may persist into Sunday across
the mountains, but the overall moisture availability on Sunday
will result in much lower precip chances.

Despite a quieter weather day on Sunday, another strong storm
system is expected to arrive Sunday night into Monday. A
deepening surface low is prog to shift NE out of the TN River
Valley...but the ultimate track and timing is still rather
uncertain. Depending on how far north/south the low tracks will
impact how much snow our area does/does not receive. This
forecast package indicates some minor accumulations across
primarily SE OH and northern WV early Monday ahead of a warm
front. Any snow that accumulates (if any) should then melt by
midday as the warm front lifts north. The remainder of the area
should experience all rain on Monday. A cold front is then prog
to push east across the area Monday night into early Tuesday
with temps on Tuesday likely falling through much of the day. A
brief mix of snow with remnant rain showers may occur Tuesday
afternoon, but moisture is expected to depart the area rather
fast behind this system. The potential exists for significant
changes to the forecast for early next week, given the current
uncertainty regarding the track of the system.

Temps on Saturday and Sunday will likely be rather chilly with
cloud cover persisting. A notable warm up should occur on Monday
in wake of the warm front, with cold and blustery conditions
occurring on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM Friday...

Precipitation is likely to end Wednesday morning as high pressure
moves into the area. High pressure and below normal temperatures are
expected through the end of this time period. Over all, the
weather pattern looks to be much quieter for the second half of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

Areas of MVFR ceilings will develop across the area this morning
and afternoon. Light freezing rain will continue across the
mountains and parts of the lowlands, through at least 15Z-17Z.
Areas across southern WV including at site KBKW have already
warmed above freezing with a change over to rain from freezing
rain.

Gusty southeasterly winds can be expected across the higher
terrain at times today including at site KBKW through 20Z, with
gusts in the teens to lower 20 kts. Winds across lower
elevation sites should remain east/southeasterly and light.

An uptick in rain is expected after 00Z, along with widespread
MVFR conditions. Expect widespread IFR after 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain Saturday, and in rain and snow showers
Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ516-518-520-523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RH/SL/JLB/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/SL
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...SL