Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241812 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 212 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level system crosses to our south tonight and continues to spread bands of showers into the region. Southern system may graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold front Friday night or Saturday. High Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... The slow moving upper level low continues to edge closer to the region. This system will cross to our south later tonight, spreading bands of rain showers across the area through tomorrow...with greatest rain chances tomorrow expected in the mountains. Although the unsettled weather with mostly cloudy skies will persist through the period, temperatures will at least be close to normal, as highs should climb into the low 60s by tomorrow afternoon in the Lowlands and 50s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 AM Tuesday... Showers will tapper off by late Wednesday as the upper low moves off to the east. Considerable differences exists with the next system late Thursday into Friday. GFS is much further north than other models and would require much higher pops. With other models in relatively decent agreement, will discount the GFS for now, but will need to keep an eye on this system. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM Tuesday... Models showing a cold front or two for Friday night and Saturday. While models agree on the general pattern, there are differences in the timing and amount of moisture available to the fronts. A high pressure system will then build in and provide dry weather for the rest of the weekend and into the next work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 150 PM Tuesday... Upper level will continue to impact our region, passing to our south tonight. Bands of showers will pivot through the area. Restrictions are to be expected in the heavier showers, however as the low passes, lower cigs to our west will drift into the Ohio Valley. This will result in MVFR to IFR bases overspreading the lowland terminals and eventually straight IFR later tonight. BKW will see their cigs lower into low end MVFR or high end IFR later this afternoon/evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions will likely vary from current forecast tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M M M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible Wednesday in showers and low stratus. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MC NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.