Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270233 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1033 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak frontal boundary waffles back and forth across the region bringing low clouds, patchy drizzle and light rain through tomorrow. Strong storm system possible late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1030 PM Monday... Tweaked hourly temperatures overnight, otherwise forecast in good shape. As of 750 PM Monday... Not much change in previous forecast or reasoning. Low stratus will be the rule tonight with perhaps some light rain and/or drizzle late across portions of southeast Ohio. Even though surface front has passed through the mountains, sloped baroclinic zone off the deck will largely stay just west of the area overnight with H850 flow backing to the west southwest...more parallel to the overall mean upper flow. As additional weak PVA overspreads the middle OH Valley Tuesday, light rain/drizzle may expand into the western/northern Lowlands late morning to early afternoon. As of 234 PM Monday... A weak front bisects the CWA at this time, with temps mired in the 50s behind it under low stratus, while areas to the east of the front see some breaks in the clouds with temps in the 60s to low 70s. The front will continue to ease eastward tonight before waffling back to the west later tonight into tomorrow. Clouds will continue to blanket our region through tomorrow with a few weak ripples in the fast flow aloft triggering patchy drizzle and maybe some light showers from time to time. Temperatures will fall back into the mid 40s to low 50s tonight and then exhibit another decent range from northwest to southeast tomorrow with southeast Ohio remaining in the low to mid 50s while our southwest VA and southern WV coalfield counties warm well into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 246 PM Monday... Surface high pressure should keep conditions mainly quiet Tuesday night into Wednesday before attention turns to Zeta`s remnants and how this will impact our area. On Wednesday, the upper level pattern features an upper ridge in the southwest Atlantic and an anomalously deep upper level low across western Texas. Meanwhile, Zeta will be positioned between these two features and will ultimately be steered into the central Gulf Coast making landfall as a hurricane Wednesday night. After Zeta makes landfall, the aforementioned upper level low will be tracking towards the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday and the faster winds aloft associated with this feature will allow Zeta`s remnants to accelerate quickly to the northeast. This will send a surge of deep tropical moisture into the area with anomalously high PWATs as values possibly reach/exceed 1.8 inches, which is about +2 standard deviations above the mean based on NAEFS mean precipitable water data. The end result will be precipitation increasing from south to north across our area late Wednesday and becoming widespread on Thursday. At this point, there does still remain some uncertainty with the complex interactions that are expected to occur between Zeta`s remnants and the deep upper level low as the latest GFS continues to suggest that Zeta`s remnants may not completely phase with the upper low until the system pulls off into the Atlantic which is in contrast to a more phased/wetter ECMWF solution. Another complicating factor is models showing somewhat of a downslope component may be present in the typical rain shadow areas and while the extent of these impacts are not completely clear just yet in the overall Qpf amounts, wouldn`t be surprised to see some reduced rain totals in areas influenced by the downslope flow. That said, still expecting a wet day on Thursday with many areas receiving 1 to 2 inches of rain, but higher amounts will also be possible especially in areas where downsloping is less of an influence. Thus, some hydro issues could be possible so will leave mention in the HWO for now. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 246 PM Monday... Precipitation associated with Zeta`s remnants will be shifting east of the area on Friday with rain tapering off from west to east by Friday evening. After this system pushes east, surface high pressure will build into the region on Saturday. This feature should promote quiet weather for the upcoming weekend with temperatures about 5 degrees below normal. By Sunday night, an upper level trough and associated cold front drop into the Ohio Valley and could trigger light scattered showers across the area. Any precipitation associated with this feature will taper off by Monday, but temperatures are expected to be a bit cooler on Monday after that front pushes through. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 800 PM Monday... Primarily MVFR CIGs at the terminals tonight, save for IFR bases at CKB and perhaps BKW. As low level flow turns more northerly, VSBY at BKW may drop into IFR or worse. However, confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. Weak PVA into the middle OH Valley Tuesday may allow for light rain to develop along the OH River and northern Lowlands late morning to early afternoon. This may delay improving CIGs until after 18Z, especially PKB/CKB. Surface flow will generally be out of the north and light. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing on CIG changes are low confidence. CIGs may improve quicker than currently forecast Tuesday at PKB and CKB. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/27/20 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M M M M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H L M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M L L M M M M L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H M H M M H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible due to fog/low clouds Tuesday night and then again due to rain/fog/low clouds Wednesday night through Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/RG NEAR TERM...ABE/30 SHORT TERM...RG LONG TERM...RG AVIATION...30

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