National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081906
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
306 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warm front crosses tonight, then a cold front late Sunday.
High pressure early next week. Weak systems later next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 PM Saturday...

Clouds will be on the increase tonight as a developing warm
front approaches. There will be a short window for temperatures
to drop to near frost concern thresholds in some hollers and
sheltered valleys. This would be very short lived as the
aforementioned warm front should quickly nix that threat with
the thickening clouds and showers. Much of the shower activity
looks to affect northern counties late tonight into Sunday
morning.

Models continue to lift the warm front north into southern PA,
followed by low pressure tracking across central OH and southern
PA. This would keep much of the area in the warm sector with
breezy and warm conditions into the early afternoon. Wind gusts
may reach into the 30 to 35 kt range along and south of I64,
especially if any sun is realized. As the afternoon progresses,
a prefrontal band of showers will attempt to move through
southeast OH and into western WV before weakening. As such, it
appears much of the precipitation will hold off until Sunday
evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

The start of the period will feature low pressure, first noted
in the near term, elongated along the Ohio River Valley with
moderate to heavy rain accompanying the surface frontal
boundary. The front will slowly trek eastward across the
forecast area overnight Sunday, with lingering showers wrapping
up along the Greenbrier Valley around daybreak Monday. Invasive
high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes region through
the remainder of the forecast period, prompting dry weather in
the Central Appalachians.

Monday will be the coldest day of the week in the wake of the
cold front, with a bit of a warm up slated heading through the
work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

Surface high pressure swings into the Mid-Atlantic on the
backside of the work week. Moisture ushered in from the Gulf in
the wake of the high`s departure may spark the potential for
showers Thursday into Friday, but with very little forcing aloft
for aid, this feature looks to be lackluster.

Temperatures near frost/freeze criteria on Wednesday
morning in the northeast WV mountains and has already been noted
in the HWO. Afternoon highs continue to rebound after midweek,
with the lowlands aiming to return to their climatological norm
for this time of year for the conclusion of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 205 PM Saturday...

FEW to SCT stratocu will continue to dissipate through the
afternoon with a mainly clear sky carrying into the early
evening. Thereafter, a developing warm front will approach and
move into the area late this evening and overnight with
increasing chances of showers and lowering bases. This will
primarily affect northern terminals but a brief shower could
affect HTS/CRW/BKW. VSBY and CIGs could approach MVFR category
during the predawn hours at CKB/EKN before the front lifts north
Sunday morning.

Much of the area will reside in the warm sector into early
Sunday afternoon, though a prefrontal band of showers may get
close to PKB/HTS near 18Z.

Generally northwest surface winds 5-10 kts areawide this
afternoon with gusts 15-20 kts at northern sites. Flow slackens
tonight before increasing out of the southeast 10 to 15 kts with
gusts 20 to 30 kts, especially HTS/CRW/BKW.

A period of LLWS is possible during the predawn as flow aloft
increases out of the southwest, providing for the potential for
directional and speed shear. This may need to be included in the
next issuance should confidence increase.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS early Sunday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain Sunday night into Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/MEK
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...30