Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 050125 AAB AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Charleston WV 925 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front exits east this evening. High pressure sails north of the area late week, and then builds down the eastern seaboard. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 921 PM Tuesday... Lowered min temps for tonight by a few degrees for nearly all areas. Drier air in the lower levels is prog to seep into the region overnight, likely allowing for temps to get down to...or slightly below...statistical guidance values. Also expanded fog coverage some for later tonight, particularly across SW VA, far southern WV, and central WV. Current remaining showers should dissipate over the next hour or so as nocturnal cooling increases. As of 445 PM Tuesday... Lowered POPs for late this afternoon and evening down to 20% for NE KY and much of the lowlands of WV. Lack of significant moisture depth and weak forcing should result in nothing more than an isolated shower before sunset. Elsewhere, POPs of 30 to 40% remain in place where shallow convection is ongoing. Expecting a quick dissipation of precip closer to sunset. As of 133 PM Tuesday... Weak cold front exits east of the mountain later this evening with little convection associated with it. Weather charts shows a surface high pressure building across IL/IN and extending east across the OH Valley into WV. This high will be take control of weather conditions through the end of the period, allowing for only low probabilities for showers or storms confined across the eastern mountains during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Any shower or storm should dissipate quickly by sunset Wednesday evening. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of the year generally in the mid to lower 60s for lows tonight, and mid 80s across the lowlands for Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 210 PM Tuesday... Surface high pressure will linger just to the north of the area for the end of the week and into the weekend. An upper level trough continue to hold over the area and models indicate some moisture present, mostly along the southern and eastern parts of the area. These factors may assist with shower and thunderstorm chances in the afternoon/evening on Thursday and Friday, particularly for the eastern portion of the area with the highest chances possible along the mountains. However, much of the area should remain mostly dry for the end of the work week. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be slightly above normal. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and upper 60s to lower 80s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM Tuesday... Surface high pressure moves into the region Friday night into Saturday, pushing out the moisture that was lingering in the area. Saturday and Sunday should continue to remain mostly dry with the highest chances of precipitation along the mountains. The upper level trough begins to flatten out as upper level ridging approaches from the west. Models show a potential upper level disturbance moving over the area Monday into Tuesday, which will likely lead to more widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the period. Temperatures will continue to warm up and stay above normal for the weekend and the start of the next work week, with some areas possibly reaching the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 723 PM Tuesday... VFR this evening with flight rules likely crashing to IFR/LIFR overnight with foggy conditions. Sct Cu field with a few SHRA currently across the region should all quickly dissipate with sunset this evening. Period of mainly clear skies after sunset with areas of river valley fog developing after midnight, local time. With dry air aloft, warm river temps, and cool land sfc temps...fog is likely to occur. Main caveat to preclude fog would be if winds just off the deck remain a little too strong, but at the moment all guidance indicates wind fields will become light enough. Thus, nearly all aerodromes are expected to experience poor flight rules overnight. Improvement to VFR areawide then expected by mid/late morning Wed with a rather flat Cu field developing in the afternoon W/NWrly sfc winds around 5 kts early in the TAF period, then becoming vrb/calm overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog development may differ from TAFs. Severity may not be as bad or as prolonged. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/05/20 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Overnight river valley fog may lead to IFR conditions most nights throughout the week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CG NEAR TERM...RH/ARJ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RH

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