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000
FXUS61 KRLX 211926
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
226 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly high pressure into midweek. Warming second half of week.
Next storm system over the weekend brings rain and some snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

With some lingering steep lapse rates in place beneath the
inversion, the Arctic airmass and shallow moisture depth has
been efficiently used to squeeze out every possible flurry with
weak diurnal heating. This convection is already eroding along
the western and northern fringes, and a clearer sky regime will
likely be in place this evening and into the overnight.
Expecting good radiational cooling with a light covering in
places, so have gone a bit below guidance in several places,
especially the mountain valleys and usual cold spots in these
scenarios. With the flurries ending, forecast is dry through
Wednesday, and clear as well from 00Z Wednesday onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will continue to provide the area with reprieve
which will keep things dry with the beginning of a slight
warming trend. Temperatures will start off cooler, although
right around normal, for lows overnight Wednesday as the cold
air sticks around for one more day. However, this will slowly
morph into a warming spell with highs reaching into the upper
40`s and even low 50`s in some locations which will feel like
summer compared to the temperatures we`ve been having. The high
pressure will make its way out of the area and slide east
through Thursday allowing a large double barrel low to approach
the area from the west. The potential for warm frontal boundary
showers increase and should overspread the area by Thursday
night. With temperatures dropping to near freezing, although
warmer than seasonable, there is a chane for a wintry mix mainly
confined to the higher elevations and should become all rain by
Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

As the aforementioned surface low moves northeast through
Friday, warm stratiform rain showers will continue to overspread
the area and with PWATs 2 standard deviations above the
climatological norm, there should be sufficient dynamics in
this large system to produce a nice rainmaker for the rest of
Friday. The column will start off warm, with wetbulb temps too
high and moisture not being in the preferred ice growth layer
until a cold frontal passage takes place Saturday morning
creating potential for a wintry mix along and on the backside of
the frontal boundary. Since models indicate strong
frontogenetical forcing, ideal upper level dynamics, colder
temps/wetbulbs, I added more snow into the forecast to start
Saturday morning off since snowfall rates will be able to
overcome any warmth leftover in the layer. This will be ideal in
the mountains where most of the accumulation will occur.

The surface low will eventually move off to the northeast and
wrap around flow will cause all precip to transition to snow
(even in lower elevations) for what looks to be the rest of the
weekend. High pressure does build in on Sunday, however only some
snow showers may linger in the mountains through Monday due to
upslope effect. This will largely depend on angel of velocity
which will rely on how much the mountains see as far as
accumulations go. Models do hint at another large system which
may affect the area during midweek, next week. As previously
mentioned, temperatures transition from a slight warming
associated with a warm front to a more climatological norm for
the rest of this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

Stratocumulus deck has evolved into a convective deck still
pumping out some flurries for some sites at this hour. This
should be short lived as we finally lose the remaining depth to
the lower level moisture. Until it dissolves out, MVFR ceilings
prevail for the not Ohio River terminals for 2-4 hours. Clear
skies and a quiet and calm VFR forecast is expected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR eradication may vary slightly..

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in rain Friday through Saturday

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/JZ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...26