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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 270233
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1033 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak frontal boundary waffles back and forth across the region
bringing low clouds, patchy drizzle and light rain through
tomorrow. Strong storm system possible late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1030 PM Monday...

Tweaked hourly temperatures overnight, otherwise forecast in
good shape.

As of 750 PM Monday...

Not much change in previous forecast or reasoning. Low stratus
will be the rule tonight with perhaps some light rain and/or
drizzle late across portions of southeast Ohio. Even though
surface front has passed through the mountains, sloped
baroclinic zone off the deck will largely stay just west of the
area overnight with H850 flow backing to the west
southwest...more parallel to the overall mean upper flow. As
additional weak PVA overspreads the middle OH Valley Tuesday,
light rain/drizzle may expand into the western/northern
Lowlands late morning to early afternoon.

As of 234 PM Monday...

A weak front bisects the CWA at this time, with temps mired in
the 50s behind it under low stratus, while areas to the east of
the front see some breaks in the clouds with temps in the 60s to
low 70s. The front will continue to ease eastward tonight before
waffling back to the west later tonight into tomorrow. Clouds
will continue to blanket our region through tomorrow with a few
weak ripples in the fast flow aloft triggering patchy drizzle
and maybe some light showers from time to time. Temperatures
will fall back into the mid 40s to low 50s tonight and then
exhibit another decent range from northwest to southeast
tomorrow with southeast Ohio remaining in the low to mid 50s
while our southwest VA and southern WV coalfield counties warm
well into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 246 PM Monday...

Surface high pressure should keep conditions mainly quiet Tuesday
night into Wednesday before attention turns to Zeta`s remnants and
how this will impact our area. On Wednesday, the upper level pattern
features an upper ridge in the southwest Atlantic and an anomalously
deep upper level low across western Texas. Meanwhile, Zeta will be
positioned between these two features and will ultimately be steered
into the central Gulf Coast making landfall as a hurricane Wednesday
night.

After Zeta makes landfall, the aforementioned upper level low
will be tracking towards the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday
and the faster winds aloft associated with this feature will allow
Zeta`s remnants to accelerate quickly to the northeast. This will
send a surge of deep tropical moisture into the area with
anomalously high PWATs as values possibly reach/exceed 1.8 inches,
which is about +2 standard deviations above the mean based on NAEFS
mean precipitable water data. The end result will be precipitation
increasing from south to north across our area late Wednesday and
becoming widespread on Thursday. At this point, there does still
remain some uncertainty with the complex interactions that are
expected to occur between Zeta`s remnants and the deep upper level
low as the latest GFS continues to suggest that Zeta`s remnants may
not completely phase with the upper low until the system pulls off
into the Atlantic which is in contrast to a more phased/wetter ECMWF
solution. Another complicating factor is models showing somewhat of
a downslope component may be present in the typical rain shadow
areas and while the extent of these impacts are not completely clear
just yet in the overall Qpf amounts, wouldn`t be surprised to
see some reduced rain totals in areas influenced by the
downslope flow. That said, still expecting a wet day on Thursday
with many areas receiving 1 to 2 inches of rain, but higher
amounts will also be possible especially in areas where
downsloping is less of an influence. Thus, some hydro issues
could be possible so will leave mention in the HWO for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 246 PM Monday...

Precipitation associated with Zeta`s remnants will be shifting
east of the area on Friday with rain tapering off from west to
east by Friday evening. After this system pushes east, surface
high pressure will build into the region on Saturday. This
feature should promote quiet weather for the upcoming weekend
with temperatures about 5 degrees below normal.

By Sunday night, an upper level trough and associated cold front
drop into the Ohio Valley and could trigger light scattered
showers across the area. Any precipitation associated with this
feature will taper off by Monday, but temperatures are expected
to be a bit cooler on Monday after that front pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM Monday...

Primarily MVFR CIGs at the terminals tonight, save for IFR bases
at CKB and perhaps BKW. As low level flow turns more northerly,
VSBY at BKW may drop into IFR or worse. However, confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

Weak PVA into the middle OH Valley Tuesday may allow for light
rain to develop along the OH River and northern Lowlands late
morning to early afternoon. This may delay improving CIGs until
after 18Z, especially PKB/CKB.

Surface flow will generally be out of the north and light.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing on CIG changes are low confidence.
CIGs may improve quicker than currently forecast Tuesday at PKB
and CKB.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 10/27/20
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to fog/low clouds Tuesday night and
then again due to rain/fog/low clouds Wednesday night through
Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/RG
NEAR TERM...ABE/30
SHORT TERM...RG
LONG TERM...RG
AVIATION...30