Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221842 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 242 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses to the mountains this afternoon and evening, with storms expected through midnight. Another front approaches from the south Monday morning spreading another round of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 PM Sunday... A front along the Ohio River Valley will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A significant wave aloft will support stronger storms as it moves across. After a slow start this morning the front gains momentum this afternoon. A few thunderstorms may potentially become severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the main threats. Pre-frontal showers will develop along the mountains as the moisture primed atmosphere supports initiation, with weak surface convergence and mid level disturbances moving through the flow aloft. Severe potential diminishes by midnight; however, a few showers remain possible overnight as a few disturbances remain overhead. On Monday morning, another surface low approaches from the south spreading rain north. There is still a bit of uncertainty on coverage and how far north the boundary pushes. Generally increased precipitation chances across the region using a blend toward the higher resolution NAMnest. Thunderstorms are possible with this next system as instability increases late morning into the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 242 PM Sunday... Precipitation chances should begin to mostly taper off Monday night, with any remaining showers along the mountains/eastern edge of the forecast area. Some lingering moisture along portions of the area on Tuesday will allow for the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to form, particularly during the afternoon hours with daytime heating occurring. The best chances will likely be along the northeast mountains, but could see an isolated shower or storm along the remainder of the area as well. A few models show a drier solution than others, but for now have left the general consensus of precipitation chances as is with some uncertainty about the coverage of storms on Tuesday. Shower and storm chances are expected to linger into Tuesday night as a warm front lifts up toward the area ahead of a more potent system which will approach for the middle of the week. High temperatures on Tuesday will be a bit warmer than Monday, around or just below normal across the area with mid to upper 70s across much of the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s for the higher elevations.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 242 PM Sunday... A low pressure system will move from the central US toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday into the end of the week, bringing a cold front across the area. At the upper levels, a deep trough will gradually approach the area starting midweek as well, aiding with the development of showers and storms across the area. As this system approaches, chances for shower and thunderstorms are expected to increase across the area on Wednesday. More showers and thunderstorms will move into the area on Thursday as the cold front approaches and crosses through the area. These storm chances will gradually diminish on Friday as the system pushes out of the area and are expected to taper off by Friday night. The upper trough is expected to move over the area on Friday, lifting up toward the northeast by the weekend. High pressure then builds in at the surface on Saturday which should allow dry conditions to persist to start the weekend. Models also bring in upper level ridging by the weekend, although the GFS does attempt to bring a disturbance over the area within this ridging, which if this solution pans out, could allow for a few showers or storms to develop this weekend. Could see a few isolated showers begin to move in on Sunday as the next system begins to approach from the west, but for the most part, a mostly dry weekend appears to be in store next weekend. Wednesday will be the warmest day this week with temperatures reaching a few degrees above normal. Once the front crosses the area on Thursday, expecting slightly cooler temperatures for the end of the week with a warming trend for the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Sunday... VFR conditions are expected to diminish to MVFR this afternoon as front moves across from the west. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening with a few strong storms possible. West winds will gust at times with erratic flow around storms. Storms diminish around midnight, however showers may linger along and near the mountains. Another front approaches from the south Monday morning spreading rain to at least BKW. There is still uncertainty on how far north this next front moves. Patchy fog is possible for PKB CKB EKN Monday morning as a stable air mass works in from the north; however, there is too much uncertainty to include this at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/intensity of storms imposing brief flight restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers along the mountains Monday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KH/CG NEAR TERM...KH SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...KH

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