Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 081906 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 306 PM EDT Sat May 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm front crosses tonight, then a cold front late Sunday. High pressure early next week. Weak systems later next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 245 PM Saturday... Clouds will be on the increase tonight as a developing warm front approaches. There will be a short window for temperatures to drop to near frost concern thresholds in some hollers and sheltered valleys. This would be very short lived as the aforementioned warm front should quickly nix that threat with the thickening clouds and showers. Much of the shower activity looks to affect northern counties late tonight into Sunday morning. Models continue to lift the warm front north into southern PA, followed by low pressure tracking across central OH and southern PA. This would keep much of the area in the warm sector with breezy and warm conditions into the early afternoon. Wind gusts may reach into the 30 to 35 kt range along and south of I64, especially if any sun is realized. As the afternoon progresses, a prefrontal band of showers will attempt to move through southeast OH and into western WV before weakening. As such, it appears much of the precipitation will hold off until Sunday evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday... The start of the period will feature low pressure, first noted in the near term, elongated along the Ohio River Valley with moderate to heavy rain accompanying the surface frontal boundary. The front will slowly trek eastward across the forecast area overnight Sunday, with lingering showers wrapping up along the Greenbrier Valley around daybreak Monday. Invasive high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes region through the remainder of the forecast period, prompting dry weather in the Central Appalachians. Monday will be the coldest day of the week in the wake of the cold front, with a bit of a warm up slated heading through the work week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday... Surface high pressure swings into the Mid-Atlantic on the backside of the work week. Moisture ushered in from the Gulf in the wake of the high`s departure may spark the potential for showers Thursday into Friday, but with very little forcing aloft for aid, this feature looks to be lackluster. Temperatures near frost/freeze criteria on Wednesday morning in the northeast WV mountains and has already been noted in the HWO. Afternoon highs continue to rebound after midweek, with the lowlands aiming to return to their climatological norm for this time of year for the conclusion of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 205 PM Saturday... FEW to SCT stratocu will continue to dissipate through the afternoon with a mainly clear sky carrying into the early evening. Thereafter, a developing warm front will approach and move into the area late this evening and overnight with increasing chances of showers and lowering bases. This will primarily affect northern terminals but a brief shower could affect HTS/CRW/BKW. VSBY and CIGs could approach MVFR category during the predawn hours at CKB/EKN before the front lifts north Sunday morning. Much of the area will reside in the warm sector into early Sunday afternoon, though a prefrontal band of showers may get close to PKB/HTS near 18Z. Generally northwest surface winds 5-10 kts areawide this afternoon with gusts 15-20 kts at northern sites. Flow slackens tonight before increasing out of the southeast 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 30 kts, especially HTS/CRW/BKW. A period of LLWS is possible during the predawn as flow aloft increases out of the southwest, providing for the potential for directional and speed shear. This may need to be included in the next issuance should confidence increase. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LLWS early Sunday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/MEK NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...30

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