Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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582 FXUS61 KRLX 130015 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 815 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue as a warm and moist airmass remains in place. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 815 PM Saturday... Not much to change with the forecast other than keeping PoPs aligned with current convective activity. Still seeing a few showers and thunderstorms across the area this evening, but these cells are remaining below severe criteria. There is a line of cells to our west that are holding together, but latest CAMs suggest they will weaken significantly in the next few hours as heating is lost. As of 1141 AM Saturday... The main weather hazard today is the heat and humidity. While the heat remains below advisory criteria, heat index values will still reach the upper 90s by the afternoon. Be sure to take plenty of breaks indoors and stay hydrated today. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon, with a 30-40% probability across the eastern mountains, northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio based on latest model runs. Any thunderstorms that develop will have a marginal chance of flooding downpours and localized damaging winds. The threat of severe weather remains very low, with little to no wind shear (0-6 km bulk shear values remain below 20 knots) to keep thunderstorms organized. Expect any convection to dissipate quickly after sunset (NBM shows less than 10% probability of convection after 9 PM local time). A very slow-moving cold front will approach our southeast Ohio counties by Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of it. Models remain in agreement that wind shear will remain fairly weak ahead of this cold front, with 0-6 km bulk shear values of only 10-20 kts across the region. Just like recent days, plenty of afternoon instability will allow for thunderstorms to build up and then dissipate, with isolated damaging wind gusts and flooding downpours being the main threats. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall is being outlooked across the area by WPC. The threat of flooding will be greatest with any cells that train over the same areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1141 AM Saturday... The aforementioned cold front from the near-term discussion will cross through the state of West Virginia from west to east Monday, bringing only a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The highest probabilities (around 20%) are expected across the eastern part of the state in the higher elevations. The severe threat remains very low, with the latest Storm Prediction Center outlooks showing less than a 5% chance of severe weather. Tuesday should be similar to Monday, with a low (20-40%) chance of afternoon showers and storms in the mountains. The lowlands should remain quiet as high pressure takes back control. Temperatures will rebound back into the lower 90s with more sunshine and less shower activity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1141 AM Saturday... Confidence is increasing for an unsettled pattern to return Wednesday through Friday as high pressure shifts eastward, leading to a southwest wind flow and increasing humidity. The NBM shows a 50- 70% chance of daily showers and thunderstorms during this period, with the GFS and ECMWF aligning on this general trend. There is some model disagreement regarding the timing of a late-week cold front, with the ECMWF suggesting an earlier arrival on Friday, while the GFS and NBM lean towards a Saturday passage. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 805 PM Saturday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, but this activity will wane after ~03z. Restrictions are possible in and around any showers and thunderstorms. Fog can be expected overnight at KEKN, which will likely bring IFR visibility restrictions. CRW, PKB, CKB, and other sites that receive rainfall could see fog restrictions though not quite as dense as expected at EKN. Any fog restrictions should lift by 12-13Z Sunday as it dissipates. Winds will be light and southwesterly early this evening, but then become light and variable overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog, otherwise high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of showers and thunderstorms could vary this evening. Fog may be more dense or occur at other locations than is forecasted. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, each day through Monday. IFR river valley fog possible during the overnights.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...LTC