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000
FXUS61 KRLX 050125 AAB
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
925 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front exits east this evening. High pressure sails
north of the area late week, and then builds down the eastern
seaboard.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 921 PM Tuesday...

Lowered min temps for tonight by a few degrees for nearly all
areas. Drier air in the lower levels is prog to seep into the
region overnight, likely allowing for temps to get down to...or
slightly below...statistical guidance values. Also expanded fog
coverage some for later tonight, particularly across SW VA, far
southern WV, and central WV.

Current remaining showers should dissipate over the next hour or
so as nocturnal cooling increases.

As of 445 PM Tuesday...

Lowered POPs for late this afternoon and evening down to 20% for
NE KY and much of the lowlands of WV. Lack of significant
moisture depth and weak forcing should result in nothing more
than an isolated shower before sunset. Elsewhere, POPs of 30 to
40% remain in place where shallow convection is ongoing.
Expecting a quick dissipation of precip closer to sunset.

As of 133 PM Tuesday...

Weak cold front exits east of the mountain later this evening
with little convection associated with it. Weather charts shows
a surface high pressure building across IL/IN and extending
east across the OH Valley into WV. This high will be take
control of weather conditions through the end of the period,
allowing for only low probabilities for showers or storms
confined across the eastern mountains during the afternoon hours
Wednesday. Any shower or storm should dissipate quickly by
sunset Wednesday evening.

Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of the year
generally in the mid to lower 60s for lows tonight, and mid 80s
across the lowlands for Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure will linger just to the north of the area for
the end of the week and into the weekend. An upper level trough
continue to hold over the area and models indicate some
moisture present, mostly along the southern and eastern parts of
the area. These factors may assist with shower and thunderstorm
chances in the afternoon/evening on Thursday and Friday,
particularly for the eastern portion of the area with the
highest chances possible along the mountains. However, much of
the area should remain mostly dry for the end of the work week.

Temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be slightly above normal.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands and upper
60s to lower 80s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure moves into the region Friday night into
Saturday, pushing out the moisture that was lingering in the
area. Saturday and Sunday should continue to remain mostly dry
with the highest chances of precipitation along the mountains.
The upper level trough begins to flatten out as upper level
ridging approaches from the west. Models show a potential upper
level disturbance moving over the area Monday into Tuesday,
which will likely lead to more widespread chances of showers and
thunderstorms by the end of the period.

Temperatures will continue to warm up and stay above normal for
the weekend and the start of the next work week, with some
areas possibly reaching the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 723 PM Tuesday...

VFR this evening with flight rules likely crashing to IFR/LIFR
overnight with foggy conditions.

Sct Cu field with a few SHRA currently across the region should
all quickly dissipate with sunset this evening. Period of
mainly clear skies after sunset with areas of river valley fog
developing after midnight, local time. With dry air aloft, warm
river temps, and cool land sfc temps...fog is likely to occur.
Main caveat to preclude fog would be if winds just off the deck
remain a little too strong, but at the moment all guidance
indicates wind fields will become light enough. Thus, nearly all
aerodromes are expected to experience poor flight rules
overnight.

Improvement to VFR areawide then expected by mid/late morning
Wed with a rather flat Cu field developing in the afternoon

W/NWrly sfc winds around 5 kts early in the TAF period, then
becoming vrb/calm overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog development may differ from
TAFs. Severity may not be as bad or as prolonged.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 08/05/20
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Overnight river valley fog may lead to IFR conditions most
nights throughout the week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/CG
NEAR TERM...RH/ARJ
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RH