866
FXUS61 KRLX 050555
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
155 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times this
weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1045 PM Saturday...

Refined PoPs a bit for the overnight hours, with activity being
generally more of the isolated nature going forward given loss
of diurnal heating. Locally heavy downpours do remain possible,
however. The trend continues to be for more clearing overnight
in spots, which in turn, will result in greater fog potential,
having already developed across portions of the far southern FA
per GOES satellite imagery. Given such, have significantly increased
fog coverage later tonight across much of the FA. The rest of
the forecast remains on track.

As of 750 PM Saturday...

Locally heavy rain across central/southern portions of the
forecast area has diminished over the last few hours, with
another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
moving slowly into the Mid-Ohio Valley at present in association
with another upper level wave. The best chance for rain
throughout the rest of the evening and overnight will be across
the central/northern portion of the CWA as the aforementioned
upper disturbance gradually slides north of the region. Locally
heavy rain remains possible in spots, potentially resulting in a
highly isolated water issue or two.

Have updated PoPs for tonight into Sunday, trending PoPs (in
general) a bit lower. Finally, did insert fog into the forecast
for some of the central/southern river valleys. Some clearing
appears possible later tonight. If so, some fog development is
likely given the moist lower atmosphere and light BL flow. For
the time being, trended conservative on fog coverage given
uncertainty in the amount of clearing that will occur. The rest
of the forecast remains on track.

As of 120 PM Saturday...

A moist southerly flow will combine with some upper level
disturbances and afternoon heating to provide showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Chances for
precipitation will lessen later tonight, but still can`t be
ruled out. A weak cold front then pushes into the area on
Sunday, providing more showers and thunderstorms.

While much of the area remains rather dry, if thunderstorms
train over an area or hit an area that previously had a
significant amount of precipitation, then isolated flash
flooding could occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1229 PM Saturday...

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Monday with a stalled
surface front over northern WV and a 500-mb shortwave approaching
from the southwest. The severe weather threat still looks low Monday
with weak 0-6 km shear of 15-25 kts. The threat of flooding also
looks low Monday, but any storms that train over the same areas
could potentially lead to localized flooding. Flash flood guidance
should be high enough and storms should be isolated enough so that
flooding won`t be a widespread concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1229 PM Saturday...

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the rest of the
week with daily thunderstorm chances. However, the time to watch for
severe weather and flooding potential appear to be Wednesday and
possibly also on Thursday. Our region will be located in the warm
sector of a strengthening mid-latitude cyclone both days. Models are
showing modest 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts. Instability looks a little
more favorable Wednesday than Thursday with MLCAPE values reaching
1,000-1,500 J/kg Wednesday afternoon. In addition, models are also
showing PWAT values of 1.50-1.75" Wednesday into Thursday, so the
threat of flooding will have to be monitored. SPC currently has
portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky outlooked in a 15%
threat of severe weather Wednesday, and WPC also has a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall along and west of the Ohio River Wednesday.
Stay tuned for new details over the coming days. Expect high
temperatures reaching the 70s-80s in the lowlands and the 70s in the
mountains each day through Thursday.

Showers will remain possible Friday, but a cold front will likely
pass through the region Friday afternoon from west to east, bringing
drier air behind it. The pattern looks more tranquil and cooler
heading into next weekend with highs back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 AM Sunday...

Isolated showers and storms will continue making their way across
the area overnight. While VFR is currently present at most
locations, sub-VFR flight conditions will be possible in
storms. Low clouds and some areas of fog are also expected to
reduce VIS/CIGs early this morning; however, confidence in
extent of fog is low as development should be constrained to
locations where winds turn calm and enough clearing occurs.

While lower clouds may linger over the mountains through the
morning, VFR is generally expected for the lowland terminals
after 12Z. Chances for scattered showers/storms and associated
MVFR to IFR VIS restrictions persist throughout the day, with
the greatest activity likely to be during the afternoon and
evening hours.

5-12kt winds, with occasionally stronger gusts, continue along
the mountains while flow has become calm to light to the west.
During the day, 5-12kt flow is expected to swing from a
southerly direction to a west/southwest direction. Winds then
weaken and become variable after 00Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and intensity tonight could
vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are
possible throughout the TAF period in heavier showers or any
thunderstorms.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 05/05/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    L    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms
into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Sunday
night and Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB