Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 242336
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
736 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool wedge of air and clouds will remain in the area into
Wednesday night. A warm front will remove the wedge Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms return to the area with the passing of
a cold front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 651 PM EDT Tuesday...

Made some minor adjustments in temperatures for tonight utilizing
the latest surface obs, their trends and blended in the NBM.
Added some patchy fog overnight into Wednesday morning. Low
temperatures tonight will range from around 50 degrees in the
mountains to the upper 50s in the Piedmont.


Previous Discussion:
As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday...

The wedge of cooler air remains draped over the area today and
does not look to erode at all during this forecast period.
Soundings and model data support this with low level flow out of
the northeast and mid- and upper-level flow being westerly.
There is also abundant moisture below 9 kft, so do not expect to
see the sun today and possibly tomorrow. These clouds along
with northeasterly flow will keep temperatures in the low to mid
60 this afternoon. Majority of the rain has exited the area,
but isentropic lift will likely keep patchy light rain and/or
drizzle in the area into tonight, especially along and east of
the Blue Ridge. If precipitation does stop Wednesday,
temperatures could warm into the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Our region will be well entrenched into the cool air wedge
through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. This will
continue to bring considerable cloudiness, cool temperatures and
drizzle. Will finally begin to see the wedge weaken/erode
during the day Thursday as high pressure begins to slide into
the northern Atlantic and deep southerly flow aloft begins to
increase ahead of the next strong system moving into the middle
Mississippi River Valley.

Rain begins to increase along the southern Blue Ridge Thursday
night as flow begins to turn more southeasterly ahead of the
deepening trough approaching from the west. Rain will eventually
overspread most of the area on Friday and will likely remain
into Friday night. May be able to squeeze out enough instability
Friday afternoon for a few isolated thunderstorms.

Temperatures still remain cooler throughout the period owning
to the fact that there will be widespread cloud cover and
rainfall chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Model guidance continues to flip-flip and there is still quite
a bit of uncertainty on the evolution of the upper-level wave
and frontal system expected to pass through on Saturday. This
does not give much confidence in the forecast for Friday and
beyond. For now, keeping the chance of showers through Sunday
morning, eventually clearing out by late Sunday. There are
indications that broad ridging begins to build back into our
region for the beginning of next week, possibly bringing summer-
like heat and humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 737 PM EDT Tuesday...

Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings expected tonight with pockets of
fog, light rain or drizzle overnight. Conditions may improve
some on Wednesday but still remaining sub-VFR.

Light easterly winds will continue tonight into Wednesday.

High confidence in the ceilings,visibilities and winds during
the taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Stalled front to our south will maintain cloud cover across the
region through at least Thursday morning with daily chances for
showers. This will result in prolonged sub-VFR conditions.

On Friday,the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas will be back in
the warm sector with a lower probability of precipitation and a
much better chance of VFR flight conditions.

The models are in poor consensus for the weather pattern for
Saturday. Isolated to scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms
possible Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...KK/RCS


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