Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
856 FXUS61 KRNK 131609 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1209 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated. Confidence increasing for record-breaking heat Sunday through Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... Key Message 1: Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and spread southeast with a cold frontal passage through tonight. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather for areas west of the Blue Ridge, with damaging winds as the main threat. Key Message 2: Starting cool but trending much warmer starting this weekend. Record heat possible early next week. Only limited chances for rain through mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1: Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and spread southeast with a cold frontal passage through tonight. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather for areas west of the Blue Ridge, with damaging winds as the main threat. An area of showers was moving through WV and into SW VA this afternoon along a southward-moving cold front. The parent upper level system dominates the eastern CONUS through Friday, and it crosses our longitude early Thursday morning. So far convection has been weak with little lightning noted. This is consistent with the marginal nature of the convective threat as noted by SPC. The main hindrances look to be a generous cap around 770mb on this morning`s RNK soundings, westerly winds throughout the column, and relatively low moisture and thus instability. We will likely see some increasing MUCAPE and lightning this afternoon and evening, as the main area of surface convergence arrives. CAMs show some slightly more robust cells developing near the WV/VA border this afternoon, with a second wave of convection behind it. The main concern will be damaging winds, but convection weakens and dissipates quickly as it moves towards the Blue Ridge tonight. Measurable rainfall (>0.01") will likely occur over most of the area through tomorrow, however higher amounts quickly drop off from north to south, with areas north of Highway 460 seeing a much better chance for decent amounts (55-75% chance of a 0.25" or more). Areas east of the Blue Ridge will see much lower amounts. Still, this will not bring much relief to the drought. Key Message 2: Starting cool but trending much warmer starting this weekend. Record heat possible early next week. Only limited chances for rain through mid week. Thursday will be a cooler day with upslope clouds lingering in the mountains most of the day. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for the mountains, with 60s to low 70 for the Piedmont. High pressure will keep us dry at least through Friday, and to some extent even over the weekend and beyond. That said, weak short wave energy may bring scattered showers to the mountains each afternoon. By mid week, a stronger area of vorticity aloft helps to deepen troughing in the Mid Atlantic region, and this looks like our best shot for precipitation. If high pressure can weaken enough, increasing moisture and surface heating should lead to more robust convection during this time, although most likely still seeing garden variety storms (not severe). Beyond day 5, the spread at 500mb really increases, so confidence is low in any details. NAEFS is showing temperature anomalies between 2-3 standard deviations as early as Sunday and lasting into Wednesday over our area, mainly in the lower levels. A little more concerning is the high values on both the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and the Shift of Tails for temperatures, meaning an extreme event is likely next week and it could be significant, relative to climatology. This early on in the warm season, people are not used to hot weather yet, and may not take heat threats very seriously. However, this is when people get into trouble, so check on neighbors, stay in the AC, and limit time outside. Actual record breaking heat looks likely at various sites Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday. Thankfully dew points and overnight will be in the 50s and 60s, so it will not be as unpleasant as it could be. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions look to prevail through much of the forecast period; however, with the passage of a cold front through this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at all terminals. These showers and thunderstorms may lead to brief periods of MVFR restrictions if they move within the vicinity of any terminal. Showers and storms are least likely at DAN. Winds will predominantly be out of the southwest at around 10-15 knots, with gusts up to 20 knots ahead of the front. Once the front passes around the 00-03 UTC timeframe, winds become northwesterly, and look to maintain winds in the 5-10 knot range, with gusts remaining up to 20 knots overnight. There will be a period Thursday morning when gusts may increase to between 20-30 kts, with the higher gusts on the ridge lines and in the mountains. Upslope cloud development is also expected at BLF and LWB starting early Thursday morning in the 09-12 UTC timeframe. These restrictions at these two terminals look to remain through the late morning hours on Thursday before lifting throughout the afternoon hours. BCB may also get caught in this MVFR deck, but it looks to stay just north of ROA and LYH at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure settles over the region by Friday returning VFR conditions to all locations. Isolated afternoon mountain showers/storms could affect BLF/LWB each day this weekend as flow becomes more westerly and then southerly/southwesterly once again. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH