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000
FXUS61 KRNK 050003
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
803 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will persist over the New England states and
keep the Mid Atlantic cooler than normal for the next couple
days. A cold front should arrive by Wednesday to bring the
next widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

...Cooler Than Normal...

Shower activity is waning. Will maintain slight chance for
showers until midnight west of I-77, otherwise just expecting
clouds most locations through the remainder of the evening and
through the overnight. Light easterly wind flow will maintain
near solid cloud deck vcnty of the Blue Ridge and as cloud bases
lower during the overnight, some drizzle is possible near
BRPKWY and across the higher terrain.

With the backdoor front now stalling across central North
Carolina, locations to the north continue to be exposed to a
cool northeast flow wedging against the eastern slopes of the
Blue Ridge. More clouds and patchy fog are likely for later
tonight as the cool wedge establishes itself more firmly across
the Piedmont. Temperatures will drop into the 50s overnight, but
they should rise towards the 70s during tomorrow after clouds
gradually begin to thin towards midday on Monday. Another chance
of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the southern Blue Ridge from Boone to Floyd. The
storms will move more towards the southeast on Monday afternoon
due to the easterly flow weakening across the Appalachian
Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

The short term forecast begins with a weak surface boundary
exiting the area in response to a weak upper level shortwave
diving south which amplifies the Eastern U.S. Upper level trof.
This may result in a few showers across the far southeastern
portion of our forecast area Monday evening, but most areas will
be dry.

Dry weather continues Tuesday although a cold front will be
pushing south in response to another upper level wave rotating
around a upper level low off the New England coast. With this
feature north of our area through Tuesday, kept chances of
precipitation out of the forecast.

The best chance for precipitation during the short term period
will be Wednesday afternoon/evening as a stronger upper level
wave and jet streak approach from the north, enhancing upper
level divergence. While the deeper moisture and greater
instability will remain to our south, enough moisture will be in
place for scattered showers, perhaps some isolated storms to
develop, especially in our southern most counties.

NBM temps were used for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday...

Above average confidence for below normal temperatures through
Saturday...

The long range deterministic models are in general agreement
that an anomalously deep upper level trof will cover most of
the east coast and Mid-Atlantic region at least into the early
part of next weekend...with the NCEP Ensemble model run
forecasting 500mb heights to be at least 2-3 standard deviations
below normal. This provides high confidence that temperatures
during this period will be below average, and shaved a few
degrees off guidance low temperatures for Friday and Saturday
mornings.

The WPC Clusters show that by next weekend there in increasing
uncertainty in the models on how fast this trof lifts, so the
confidence in temperatures Sunday, and to some degree, Saturday
are lower than average.

As for precipitation chances, while PWAT values remain below
normal during the entire long term period, a robust upper
level shortwave digging south from the Great Lakes through the
Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday may spawn scattered showers and
isolated storms, but instability levels will be meager. While
there are some signals PWAT values increase on Sunday which may
help trigger widely scattered showers and storms, with the
higher than normal uncertainty regarding the timing of the
departing upper level trof, confidence in the POP forecast is
low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

Cool northeast wind flow continues to wedge clouds along the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, which is keeping ceilings at
MVFR for most locations. Stable conditions through the night may
result in a repeat of low stratus and fog, with models
indicating a period of IFR late tonight through the morning Push
before cigs/visibilities improve back to MVFR mid-late morning,
and then transition to VFR for the afternoon Monday.

With respect to shower/storm chances, the daytime heating Monday
is expected to result in scattered shower and thunderstorms
along the southern Blue Ridge between ROA-TNB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Fog and low clouds do not appear as likely for Monday night into
Tuesday morning, and VFR conditions are anticipated during
Tuesday with any chances of afternoon convection appearing to
be slim. Those chances should increase by Wednesday as a cold
front approaches and crosses the Mid Atlantic into Thursday.
Drier air may arrive by Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PM/PW
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...PM