Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 282346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
646 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

Low pressure moving northeast through the Great Lakes tonight
will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region along
with moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
weather turns windy and colder behind the front on Monday and
Monday night. High pressure and dry weather build in for
Tuesday and Tuesday night.


As of 310 PM EST Sunday...

Flood Watch in effect through Monday morning for areas along
and west of a Marion to Pearisburg to Lexington line.

Low clouds and fog remained in the foothills and piedmont of
Virginia late this afternoon. The wedge had eroded over the rest
of southwest Virginia into southeast West Virginia and the
mountains and foothills of North Carolina. Outside of the wedge
winds were gusting from the southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

HREF and HRRR guidance have the main axis of showers from
central West Virginia through western Tennessee through
midnight. Between midnight and noon the band of showers and
associated cold front cross the Appalachians and will move in
eastern sections of Virginia and North Carolina.

Temperatures will be mild overnight as dew points rise across
the area. However, temperatures will drop during the day behind
the front in the mountains.

There will be a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts on the
western slopes of the central Appalachians. The heaviest
rainfall through Monday morning will be west of a western Bath
County, VA to western Watauga County, NC line. No changes have
been made to the Flood Watches that are in effect or will go
into effect at 7PM this evening.


As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

A brief touch of wintry weather in the mid-week...

A transient surface high will enter the area from the upper midwest
late Monday and begin to clear out sky cover from north to south.
Behind Monday`s front, winds will pick up for the overnight hours
into Tuesday. Higher elevation areas will experience gusts 25-35 kt,
and lower valley areas and east into the Piedmont will gust more int
the 15-25 kt range. Most of Tuesday will remain clear with zonal
flow dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. An eye will be kept
on a small cut off low set to come out of the southern states
Wednesday morning.

This little system will approach the region Wednesday morning and
restore cloud cover, but ought to get swept east and off the coast
by Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Most of the action from
this smaller system will remain south of the NC/VA border and will
be shortlived. The NC Highlands may see a quick inch or so of snow,
up to 2 in the very upper elevations. Elsewhere in the mountains, a
dusting is the most to be expected. Snow will become rain as
temperatures warm on Wednesday. East of the Blue Ridge this will be
an entirely rain event. By Thursday morning the cut off low will be
out to sea, and calmer weather will prevail.

Temperatures will be above normal for this forecast period, with
even a slight warming trend. Daytime highs will be in the 40s and
50s. The temperature profile will cool just enough Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning to allow that bit of snow in the mountains,
but most will stay above freezing in the mid 30s for overnight lows.


As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

A much calmer second half of the week and weekend...

A broad ridge will move into place over much of the CONUS. This will
provide us with dry mild weather through the end of the forecast
period. The only disruption could be another low forming in the
southern states late on Sunday and moving north to bring more rain
to the area. However, this currently seems a less likely scenario
than the broad ridge extending its influence almost as far south as
the Gulf. This will serve to fend off any encroaching low pressure
systems from approaching us from that direction.

High temperatures will be slightly above normal for this entire
portion of the forecast, while lows look to be right around normal.


As of 645 PM EST Sunday...

Wedge conditions are holding fast east of the Blue Ridge to
include KROA and KLYH with LIFR conditions. However, the wedge
retreated just a bit this afternoon so all other locations are
ooutside of the wedge with VFR conditions. Believe KROA and KLYH
will remain with very poor flight conditions until the
approaching cold front finally dislodges the wedge late tonight.
Expect conditions at other sites will be trending down as the
front approaches and lower CIGs and showers move in.

The front will clear the region early Monday morning with
steadily improving conditions to VFR all sites. However, expect
winds will increase significantly across the entire region by
the afternoon with gusts at or above 30kt for KROA possible.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Drier weather and VFR conditions are expected to across the
region Tuesday and Tuesday night. A quick moving low pressure
system moving across the southeastern U.S. Wednesday and
Wednesday night may bring VFR clouds to the Carolinas. Some MVFR
upslope clouds are possible in southeast West Virginia

Tranquil VFR weather is expected for Thursday and Friday.


VA...Flood Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Monday morning
     for VAZ009>011-018-023-024.
     Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ007-019-020.
WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ042>044-507-508.


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