Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 031020 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 620 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area through tonight. A cold front enters from the north Thursday, lingering into Saturday, with another front pushing southeast to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 608 AM EDT Wednesday... Made some minor adjustments in temperatures this morning utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends, and blended in the NBM. Also adjusted cloud cover early this morning. As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday... The upper ridge will remain over the Southeast today into tonight. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure shifts east into tonight. With the high center to our our south, a westerly flow will continue. Low level moisture and differential heating may initiate isolated convection in the southwest mountains this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 70s in the mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. It will be mild tonight with low temperatures from around 60 in the mountains to near 70 in the piedmont under clear to partly cloudy conditions. Forecast confidence is high for the Near term period. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... During this portion of the forecast, the general synoptic pattern across the region will be one of zonal flow through Friday and early Friday night. A series of weak disturbances will cross the area within this flow. As daytime heating maximizes, so too will coverage of showers and storms, with the best potential across the mountains. With much of the activity being diurnally driven, limited coverage is expected by midnight each night. Saturday into Saturday night, a trough is expected to develop over the East Coast in response to ridging over the Central to Northern High Plains. An associated cold front will sweep across the region Saturday with high pressure starting to build into the area Saturday night bringing drier weather and slightly cooler conditions. Except for Saturday night, temperatures during this section of the forecast will average five degrees above normal. Saturday night will be around normal for this time of year. Confidence in the above section of the forecast is moderate to high. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday... A cold front will move through the region on Saturday, clearing out the heat and humidity. Temperatures will drop back to normal levels over the weekend into early next week. For now, the forecast looks rain-free through the period, but will need to keep an eye on the tropics to see where TS Cristobal tracks. Latest advisory keeps Cristobal in the Gulf through the weekend. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday... Great flying weather today into tonight. VFR conditions will prevail at the taf sites through the taf period. High pressure over the Southeast will slide east into tonight. A cold front approaches from the north Thursday. An isolated shower may be possible in the southwest mountains this afternoon into tonight. Winds will gusts up to 25 this afternoon from the west and southwest with the strongest gusts at higher elevations, mainly north of KROA. High confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the TAF period. Extended Aviation Discussion... With a hot, humid air mass the central and southeast Unites States, thunderstorms will develop along a front across the Ohio Valley today then move southeast into the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday. Thursday and Friday as the weak front drifts into the region from the north scattered to numerous thunderstorms with the associated MVFR conditions are expected. Another front expected Saturday with another round of showers/storms before high pressure works in on Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/WP NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/KK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.