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000
FXUS61 KRNK 080132
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
832 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place
well into the workweek. As this high moves into the southeast
United States, temperatures will gradually warm at least through
the middle of week. The next chance for precipitation will be
Friday with the approach of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 832 PM Sunday...

High pressure will remain across our region tonight into Monday.
This evening 00s RNK sounding was quite dry with PWAT at 0.09
inch and northerly flow. Pressure rises tonight may allow winds
to linger this evening in the higher elevations. However,in
general, winds will diminish tonight into Monday morning.
Adjusted temperatures tonight using the latest surface obs,
their trends and blended in the cooler guidance. In other
words, lowered temperatures in a few locations especially in the
valleys. Overnight lows will range from the teens in the
mountains to mid 20s in the piedmont. A northwest flow and
downsloping expected Monday. High temperatures Monday will vary
from the mid 40s in the northwest mountains to the lower 60s in
the piedmont.


As of 600 PM EST Sunday...

Made some minor adjustments in temperatures for this evening
into tonight utilizing the latest surface obs and their trends.
Winds may gust up to 25 mph along the ridges this evening
before tapering off overnight. More later tonight.

As of 145 PM EST Sunday...

Warmer temperatures expected Monday.

A weak surface boundary was moving through the forecast area
early this afternoon, with winds behind this feature gusting
to 15 to 20 knots. While there is good agreement in the
deterministic models and ensemble members that the axis of high
pressure will be located from southern WV to far southwest VA
into northeast TN, pressure rises linger well into the evening
and early into the overnight hours which may allow winds to
persist for the higher elevations tonight. As a result, tried to
show a larger spread in lows tonight from the higher elevations
to the valleys.

Forecast soundings indicate a deep northwest flow tomorrow on
Monday, but less mixing is expected with high pressure moving
southeast into the Carolinas. With weak downsloping flow and a
pretty significant jump in 1000-850 thickness values
anticipated, leaned toward the warmer guidance for highs
tomorrow and pushed highs up (especially east of the Blue Ridge)
a couple of degrees.

Confidence is moderate for temperatures tomorrow, as the
ensemble spread for high temps is the largest over the next 4
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Sunday...

     An early taste of Spring fever with dry and warm conditions
heading into mid to late week...

If you like warm and sunny conditions, well, this forecast is
for you. A notable warming trend will take place as we head into
the midweek period as high pressure slides toward the Carolina
coast and a large upper level ridge builds in. This will provide
ample return flow out of the southwest at the surface/low
levels to boost temperatures well into the 60s and 70s. One fly
in the ointment, looks to be a quick moving trough axis aloft
Tuesday which would give us a few extra clouds during the
afternoon and evening hours despite the column being overly dry.

Overall it`s a forecast for short sleeves, sunglasses, time on the
deck/patio, or even lunch outdoors. Our coolest temps look to be on
Tuesday with the clouds keeping highs in the upper 50s and low 60s
out west to mid to upper 60s east. By Wednesday temperatures warm
even more with low to mid 60s in the west to upper 60s and low 70s
out east. Overnight lows won`t be all that bad either with low to
mid 30s Monday night to the low to mid 40s Wednesday night. Cooler
temperatures can be expected though in the valleys west of the Blue
Ridge.

Confidence remains high in the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Sunday...

     Warm temperatures remain as rain chances return late in the week
and into the weekend...

Ample southwesterly flow remains to start the period as our weather
pattern starts to transition thanks to an encroaching front for the
upcoming weekend ahead. At the surface, high pressure continues
to hold it`s grip off the Carolina coast before sliding further
out into the Atlantic Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile a cold
front will remain draped to our west from the Upper Great Lakes
and Ohio River Valley back south toward the Southern Plains.
Timing and intensity of the front remain up in the air as model
guidance continues to flip-flop on an overall solution.

Both the GFS, Euro, and Canadian have a frontal passage Friday
afternoon and evening but with subtle differences. The GFS passes
the boundary through the region before stalling it across North
Carolina late Friday into Saturday allowing a second wave of energy
and moisture to roll through. The Euro throws a warm front our way
with an isolated shower or two Thursday morning into mid afternoon
before the main front sags south Friday afternoon and evening. It
also stalls the boundary to our south along the VA/NC line with a
secondary wave of moisture that looks to ride east from the
Tennessee River Valley Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. The
Canadian solution remains similar but keeps the axis of moisture
with the front Friday and the secondary wave Saturday north of the I-
64 corridor. For now I went with a blend of the 3 models along with
central guidance in keeping Thursday dry with increasing rain
chances from the north and west Friday and then again Saturday. I
also left out the mention for thunder at this time based upon the
current dewpoint trend and overall evolution/placement of the
boundary. Highest probabilities on precip remain along and west
of the Blue ridge through the weekend although confidence
remains ow to moderate since we remain several days out.

By Sunday and Monday high pressure looks to make a return from the
Ohio River Valley. This will deliver us much cooler air and
otherwise seasonable readings for this time of year.

Temperatures will remain at or above average through the period with
a cool down expected over the weekend. Expect the warmest conditions
Thursday and Friday where highs look to top out in the upper 60s and
low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Sunday...

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. A few wind gusts to 20-25 MPH may linger this evening
into tonight along the ridges. On Monday, winds will diminish
and skies will be clear allowing for good flying conditions.

High confidence for ceiling, visibility and wind.

Extended Aviation Discussion...
VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming week.
Isolated to scattered MVFR showers are possible Friday
especially in the northwest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...KK/PH
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...KK/PH