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817
FXUS61 KRNK 130633
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
233 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary across the Mid Atlantic will set up in this
general vicinity into early next week keeping shower and storm
chances around into next week. Temperatures remain near or above
normal.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Localized flooding will be possible under the heavier storms.

2) A Flood Watch has been issued for Appomattox and Buckingham
Counties from this afternoon through late tonight.

3) Slightly cooler today but still quite warm.

A short wave moving across NC was allowing some showers to
continue early this morning. These should dissipate in the next
couple of hours. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected today and tonight, especially after 1 pm, as
convective temperatures are reached and additional short wave
energy arrives. Dew points in the 60s/near 70s and temperatures
in the upper 70s to mid 80s produce MUCAPEs around 1500 J/kg.
Bulk shear looks to be about 20-25 kts, while 0-1 km shear is
about 5-10 kts. So at this point a briefly severe cell or two
looks possible, but widespread severe is not expected.

PWATs do come up markedly from an inch or less to 1.5 to 2
inches. A surface trough across the area may provide focus for
training cells, as will a frontal boundary just to our north.
These factors combined with slow storm motion around 15-20 mph
and deep warm cloud layers to 16kft will support localized heavy
rain possibly leading to urban, small stream, and flash
flooding. The most likely area for flooding to occur would be in
Appomattox and Buckingham Counties, where a Flood Watch has
been issued for this afternoon through late tonight.

Today, highs will be just a little cooler than Thursday, but it
will still be quite warm and muggy. Cloud cover and high dew
points will help keep overnight lows Friday night in the mid to
upper 60s.

Confidence in the near term is high.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Storms will be possible each day, with Sunday having the best
chances area-wide.

2) Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal through the
period.

A stalled frontal boundary will be to our north on Saturday,
stretching from New Jersey west into the Ohio Valley and into the
Chicago area. Due to our area being south of the front, and a
strong Bermuda high driving in moisture and warm air from the
tropics, afternoon thunderstorms are expected due to diurnal
heating. This pattern continues into Sunday, though the front
drops down into our area. An upper-level shortwave trough will
traverse through the area at the same time, which will further
enhance lift, leading to widespread thunderstorms for Sunday
afternoon. Monday will also have a similar setup, but the upper-
level support fades, causing storms to be less widespread,
especially in the Piedmont. Severe weather is not currently
expected for any day, though an isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out in the strongest storms.

Precipitation totals will generally be around 1.0-2.0" during
the period, with higher amounts possible under the heaviest
storms. Flash flooding will be a concern, as most storms will be
slow moving, and could train on each other. High moisture
content will also allow for heavy rain to fall in a short period
of time.

Temperatures will stay near to slightly above normal through the
period, with highs in the 70s/80s each day. Lows will generally
be in the 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) The unsettled pattern continues with afternoon storms
possible each day next week.

2) Temperatures increase further late week, with widespread 90s
for the Piedmont areas.

The pattern will remain stagnant through the week, as a strong
Bermuda high pressure will continue to drive warm, moist air
into the Mid-Atlantic Region with southwesterly flow. The high
moisture content along with warm temperatures with diurnal
heating forces will allow thunderstorms to be possible each
afternoon. Waves of low pressure in the mid-levels will enhance
support throughout the week, which keep decent probabilities of
rain across the area. West of the Blue Ridge will see the best
chances with PoPs in the 50-60% range, thanks to the west-
southwesterly flow. East of the Blue Ridge will have better
instability, but less forcing, keeping PoPs lower, around
30-40%. Due to the summer-like pattern, severe weather is not
widely anticipated, though the strongest storms could still
cause wind damage. By Thursday night, a cold front moves into
the area with upper-level support, which could bring strong
storms, though current timing has them moving in overnight,
which would limit any severe weather potential. The front moves
through into Friday, finally breaking up the stagnant pattern
across the area heading into next weekend as high pressure
builds back into the area.

Temperatures start out around normal to slightly above normal,
with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. A slow increase in
temperatures will see 80s in the higher elevations with
widespread low 90s across the Piedmont beginning Wednesday
through the end of the week. Lows remain very consistent through
the period, mainly in the 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Scattered VFR clouds continue to traverse west to east across
the area this morning. Light showers continue away from TAF
sites. Skies should remain broken to overcast VFR, becoming MVFR
in spots late this afternoon and evening as another round of
-TSRA/-SHRA develop. BLF/LWB/BCB/ROA look to have the best shot
 at -TSRA. Some of these cells could contain heavy rain and
 briefly drive conditions to LIFR. These should subside after
 14/3-5Z, when stratus and fog will become widespread. Not
 looking for anything much below MVFR until after 6Z, when IFR
 and LIFR are more likely.

Prevailing winds today will be light at around 5 knots or less
out of the southwest. Winds tonight tonight look to remain calm
to light and variable.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Storm chances remain elevated this weekend into early next week
as a frontal boundary stays situated to the north of the area.
Will not be a complete washout and expect VFR interspersed with
sub-VFR cigs/vsbys in showers/storms and fog.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH