Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 171058 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 558 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring fair but cool weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the weekend. A weak cold front will then move through Monday and monday night, bringing a chance for rain or snow showers to locations west of the Blue Ridge for the first part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 155 AM EST Saturday... High pressure sliding eastward across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region will bring fair weather to the region today, with any lingering upslope cloudiness west of the Blue Ridge dissipating after daybreak. Temperatures will be a bit warmer today though still a bit below normal with mid/upper 50s east of the Ridge and low/mid 50s to the west. Lows tonight will generally be in the 30s, though there will likely be a decent hill/valley spread as the valleys cool but the ridges start getting into warm air advection on the backside of the high. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 AM EST Saturday... We will finish out the weekend on Sunday with quiet but increasingly cloudy weather as a wedge of high pressure sets up ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. The approaching front has been slowing down over the last few model runs, and it looks like the front will take its time crossing the region Monday into Monday night. There is not a lot of forcing with the front and it looks like any rain/snow showers will be confined to locations west of the Blue Ridge for Monday, Monday night, and into Tuesday before high pressure builds in from the Mississippi valley Tuesday night. Temperatures will generally be below normal into the first part of next week, though a bit of a warm surge ahead of the front Monday will boost readings to right about normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Friday... This portion of the forecast continue the trend of little if any precipitation forecast for the region. The southeast Canadian high is expected to be shunted eastward in response to upper level ridging shifting eastward through central CONUS. By Thanksgiving Day, the center of the ridge is expected to be centered over the area. The center of the ridge will start to shift east of the area on Friday, in response to the approach of a shortwave trough and associated surface cold front around the Mississippi Valley. The resultant forecast for our region is dry through at least Thursday night. Temperatures will be coolest on Wednesday with readings averaging 5 degrees below normal. By Friday, temperatures return to near normal. There is a question on Friday as to whether or not any precipitation starts working its way into the far southwestern portion of the area ahead of the approaching cold front to the west. Those chances increase Friday night according to both the European and Canadian solutions as they merge both the front and a southern stream low skirting the Gulf Coast states. The GFS keeps these two systems as separate entities, and thus, neither a major weather influence for our region. Forecast confidence for this portion of the forecast is moderate. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 5550 AM EST Saturday... Low clouds from the Alleghany Highlands down into the New River Valley are affecting KLWB with MVFR cigs. Expect these clouds to dissipate by mid morning, leaving all sites VFR through the period. There is a signal for some fog developing toward daybreak Sunday morning but not enough confidence to include with this forecast package. winds will generally be light through the period with no impact to aircraft operations. Forecast confidence is moderate to high. Extended Discussion... Overall VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend. However some models show the potential for lower ceilings in the east ahead of weak cold front by Sunday, and across the mountains in the wake of the boundary Sunday night into Monday where MVFR will be possible. High pressure then looks to build in with good flying conditions expected Monday night through Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JH/MBS

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