Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --461 FXUS61 KRNK 091121 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 621 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves from the Great Lakes to off the mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday as a front tracks in from the west. This front crosses our area Sunday night into Monday providing a good chance for showers. High pressure works by in Tuesday, followed by another front by Thursday with limited moisture. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 AM EST Saturday... Key Message: 1) Temperatures closer to normal, remaining dry through tonight. Tighter pressure gradient allowing for a few gusts in the higher ridges and some around Roanoke to 20 mph this morning. As the high tracks east, a northeast flow will commence which starts to bring a gusty wind to the Piedmont of VA after dawn. Overall, as we head through the day the upper pattern has the axis of the ridge from the southeast U.S. into the central Appalachians, with some jet induced cirrus moving across. Anticipate with the surface high to our north and a northeast to east flow, temperatures to be a little cooler with highs in the 60s for most. Skies will be mostly sunny with periods of high clouds as well. Tonight, high pressure heads offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast to bring the low level flow around to the southeast. May take some time to get the moisture to increase, but showers may start to approach our WV mountains around dawn Sunday. Otherwise, expect increasing clouds with temperatures dropping this evening before clouds move in the steadying out overnight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s, milder over toward the upper Clinch Valley. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 242 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Better chance for showers Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Rainfall more concentrated over the central Appalachians into the TN Valley. 2) Dry weather returns by late Monday with temperatures above normal. A warm front tracks across WV Sunday followed by a cold front bringing a better chance of showers into the mountains Sunday afternoon. Models have trended toward best lift and moisture convergence to stay in a northeast to southwest orientation from northern VA into the TN Valley putting our WV counties with higher pops where a half inch or more of rain may occur. Though excessive rainfall is marginal, not seeing any signs of heavy downpours or flooding issues with this system, aside from potential culverts ponding due to leaves and rain. Southeast portions of our area will still see a chance for showers as the front passes across late Sunday night into Monday but since the main low lifts into Quebec the front starts to weaken and mainly seeing less rainfall amounts but still a tenth of an inch or less. The upper pattern flow becomes more progressive behind this system with temperature staying above normal Monday into Tuesday but not as warm as recent days. Looking at showers pulling out by Monday afternoon with clearing skies. High pressure over the Great Lakes starts to ridge in again Tuesday with flow becoming more north to northeast Tuesday afternoon. For temperatures Sunday will be the coolest day with clouds and shower chances keeping highs in 50s in the mountains and portions of the Piedmont with lower 60s across southside Va/NC Piedmont and far SW VA. These temperatures are near normal for early November. Southwest flow as the front pushes across Sunday night will keep lows in the 50s except a few upper 40s in the mountains. Monday, as the upper flow flattens, and we see more sunshine with westerly flow, highs will be in the 60s in the mountains to 70s in the Piedmont. Clear to partly cloudy skies Monday night to provide lows in the 40s, maybe some 30s in the mountains. Tuesday with a northerly flow highs will be about 5 degrees above normal in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 255 AM EST Saturday... Key Messages: 1: Mainly dry this period. 2: Temperatures running closer to normal. High pressure to track from the Great Lakes into New England/Quebec by Wednesday. Several models are keeping next system somewhat dry as main energy with the low stays well north and moisture advection ahead of it is minimal. This pattern does favor some shower chances for the mountains, but have leaned drier further east based on latest model/ensemble trends. 5h heights fall as do 8h temperatures as the trough digs across the northeast to off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. This will keep our temperatures closer to normal for mid to late week. Lows in the 30s/40s, highs in the 50s/60s. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 618 AM EST Saturday... All local terminals will continue to have VFR through this taf valid period. Winds will turn northeast this morning, then to southeast by afternoon. Wind speeds will be less than 10 knots except gusts 15 to 20kts possible at LYH/DAN between 12-18z. High clouds increase to broken to overcast by the end of the period. Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK Rain chances return for from west to east on Sunday and continue through Sunday night, likely reducing flight conditions to MVFR or below as a front pushes through the area. The front clears out by midday Monday, with VFR conditions returning for the rest of the period.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...VFJ/WP AVIATION...AMS/WP