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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 241712
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
112 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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High Pressure over the north Atlantic will keep cool northeast
maritime flow across the region through Friday. Aside from a few
clouds, mainly fair dry weather is anticipated through Friday.
Moisture from the Atlantic will bring an increased chance for
afternoon/evening showers and a few thunderstorms by the
weekend. Temperatures will be slightly below normal through
Friday, then warm to seasonal norms for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

Stagnant pattern to remain in place through Friday with High
Pressure across the northern Atlantic resulting in seasonally
cool maritime northeast to easterly low-level flow across the
region. Aside from a few clouds, mainly fair dry weather
prevails. Will have to watch coastal front and sea breeze over
eastern NC. Any showers which develop along this boundary many
sneak into our southeast CWA late in the day Friday. Slight
chance pops should be enough to account for this for now.
Temperatures through Friday favor the cool side of normal by
about 5 degrees.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper ridge over the western Atlantic retrogrades Friday night and
Saturday. 500 MB across the United States reverses to a ridge-trough-
ridge by Sunday. Very little change in overall weather pattern.
Showers and thunderstorms along a coastal front may produce an
outflow boundary that moves northwest into the piedmont on Saturday
afternoon. Otherwise no focus for storms so most favored areas will
be along the Blue Ridge. Coverage expected to stay isolated to
scattered. This is due in part to the warm temperatures and cap
aloft and the subsidence under the ridge. The same subsidence and
warm air mass will keep temperatures at or just above normal.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Eastern United States remains under the upper ridge through
Wednesday. Synoptic scale models were showing a deepening  upper
trough over the Great Lakes with potentially a closed low by Thursday
and lower 500 mb heights over the East. The daily probability of
showers and thunderstorms continues through Wednesday. No organized
short waves or focus for thunderstorms so will keep coverage in the
isolated to scattered range. Highs will be around or just above
normal and lows will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

...Low End VFR Cloud Bases to Persist Southwest along Blue
Ridge, Otherwise little sensible weather through the valid TAF
period...

Clouds remain stuck underneath subsidence inversion where weak
easterly upslope flow is resulting in pool of shallow layer of
moisture between 3-5kft AGL. This cloud layer will likely
persist through the remainder of the afternoon. Models suggest
it will gradually scatter this evening.

For tonight, anticipating mainly VFR. Potential for mountain
valley fog if skies remain clear. There is a chance that low
cloud may reform underneath the subsidence inversion again. If
this happens then fog is less likely.

Winds will remain northeast to east-southeast through the TAF
valid period at speeds of 5-7kts.

Forecast Confidence = Good.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may sneak into the far
southeast part of the area late Friday, most likely to impact
KDAN, if at all, and could also impact the Blue Ridge of NW NC.
Otherwise Friday should remain dry and mainly VFR outside of any
early morning fog.

Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected through
next Wednesday, although moisture and instability will gradually
increase each day, and thus the chance for scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Increased low level moisture will also result in greater likelihood
for late night/early morning IFR to LIFR fog/low clouds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM