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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 031020
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
620 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through tonight. A cold
front enters from the north Thursday, lingering into Saturday, with
another front pushing southeast to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 608 AM EDT Wednesday...

Made some minor adjustments in temperatures this morning
utilizing the latest surface obs, their trends, and blended in
the NBM. Also adjusted cloud cover early this morning.

As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday...

The upper ridge will remain over the Southeast today into tonight.
Meanwhile, the surface high pressure shifts east into tonight.
With the high center to our our south, a westerly flow will
continue. Low level moisture and differential heating may initiate
isolated convection in the southwest mountains this afternoon. High
temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 70s in the
mountains to the lower 90s in the piedmont. It will be mild tonight
with low temperatures from around 60 in the mountains to near 70 in
the piedmont under clear to partly cloudy conditions.

Forecast confidence is high for the Near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

During this portion of the forecast, the general synoptic pattern
across the region will be one of zonal flow through Friday and early
Friday night. A series of weak disturbances will cross the area
within this flow. As daytime heating maximizes, so too will coverage
of showers and storms, with the best potential across the mountains.
With much of the activity being diurnally driven, limited coverage
is expected by midnight each night.

Saturday into Saturday night, a trough is expected to develop over
the East Coast in response to ridging over the Central to Northern
High Plains. An associated cold front will sweep across the region
Saturday with high pressure starting to build into the area Saturday
night bringing drier weather and slightly cooler conditions.

Except for Saturday night, temperatures during this section of the
forecast will average five degrees above normal. Saturday night will
be around normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above section of the forecast is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

A cold front will move through the region on Saturday, clearing out
the heat and humidity. Temperatures will drop back to normal levels
over the weekend into early next week. For now, the forecast looks
rain-free through the period, but will need to keep an eye on the
tropics to see where TS Cristobal tracks. Latest advisory keeps
Cristobal in the Gulf through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM EDT Wednesday...

Great flying weather today into tonight. VFR conditions will
prevail at the taf sites through the taf period. High pressure
over the Southeast will slide east into tonight. A cold front
approaches from the north Thursday.

An isolated shower may be possible in the southwest mountains
this afternoon into tonight. Winds will gusts up to 25 this
afternoon from the west and southwest with the strongest gusts
at higher elevations, mainly north of KROA.

High confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during the
TAF period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

With a hot, humid air mass the central and southeast Unites
States, thunderstorms will develop along a front across the
Ohio Valley today then move southeast into the Mid Atlantic
region on Thursday.

Thursday and Friday as the weak front drifts into the region
from the north scattered to numerous thunderstorms with the
associated MVFR conditions are expected.

Another front expected Saturday with another round of
showers/storms before high pressure works in on Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/KK