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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 251741
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
141 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will shift offshore by Sunday. The next
front moves in by Monday with widespread showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure and cooler weather are expected
behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday with rain gradually
ending.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 113 PM Saturday...

You can expect widely scattered showers and storms along/west of
the Blue Ridge this afternoon/evening, with better coverage
Sunday afternoon...

Showers and a few storms have formed early this afternoon in the
mountains along theta-a ridge/low level moisture convergence
gradient. Going with high-res solutions favors best coverage
over the Mountain Empire/upper TN Valley or west of I-77 into
southeast WV, with isolated coverage as far east as the
Alleghanys/Roanoke Valley and foothills of NC.

Showers fade this evening and should see come clearing before
more clouds ahead of approaching front and shortwave move in
late tonight into Sunday. Models in somewhat decent agreement
in showing good chance of storms Sunday afternoon west of the
Blue Ridge with little if any coverage in the piedmont.
The better lift may not arrive til after this period in the
east.

Typical late June temperatures with lows in the 60s tonight with
somewhat elevated humidity and patchy fog in the mountain
valleys, though cloud cover may limit this in the west. Forecast
on track with best chance of any convection this afternoon
being confined to the mountains, especially along/west of I-77
where better low level moisture convergence and theta-e ridging
exists. A few storms could pop or drift east toward the
Roanoke/New River Valleys, north to the Alleghanys but no more
than 20 pops here.

Otherwise, expect mostly sunny with highs near 90 east to 80s
west, except some 70s in the NC mountains and higher ridges of
Southwest VA.

With more clouds and earlier development of storms, highs Sunday
may be a few degrees cooler than Saturday in the mountains with
mid 70s to lower 80s, while the piedmont warms back into the
upper 80s to around 90.

Forecast confidence is average on shower coverage this
afternoon, and above average for Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 141 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, becoming more
widespread on Monday ahead and along the cold front.

The broad subtropical ridge across the eastern United States will
flatten on Sunday as a short-wave trough moves across southern
Canada. A cold front will move across the region Sunday night
into Monday. Convergence along the front combined with some
instability will create showers and thunderstorms. The Day 2
convective outlook highlights a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms to our west. However, cannot rule out an isolated
severe storm Sunday evening into Sunday night. Southwest flow
will advect rich Gulf moisture northward along the Appalachians
through Sunday night. Scattered showers may linger through the
night as the cold front continues its approach. Low temperatures
Sunday night will range from the upper 50s in the mountains to
around 70 degrees in the Piedmont.

The cold front will move across the mountains Monday morning, and
across the Piedmont during the afternoon. Precipitable water values
climb into the 1.7-2.0" range by early afternoon east of the Blue
Ridge allowing for favorable heavy rainfall conditions. In addition,
CAPE values will potentially exceeding 1500 J/Kg, and will have to
keep watch for the potential of wet microbursts as well as heavy
rainfall rates that could lead to localized flash flooding,
especially where storms train or move slowly. The cold front is
expected to exit our area to the east by evening, with winds
shifting from northwest. High temperatures Monday will be cooler
with readings from the upper 60s in the mountains to the mid 80s in
the Piedmont.

High pressure will pass east across the lower Great Lakes Monday
night, and will become established over Southern New England on
Tuesday. This will result in a northeast winds across the Mid-
Atlantic region into Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be cool
with readings generally in the 70s. With the recent cold front
becoming stalled across the Carolinas, there appears to be some
potential for residual moisture near the front to trigger a few
showers or storms, particularly along the southern Blue Ridge in
northwest North Carolina given the local upslope windflow. Lows
Tuesday night will vary from the mid 50s in the northwest mountains
to the lower 60s in the Piedmont.

Moderate confidence in the Short Term Period Forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 141 PM EDT Saturday...

Mostly dry Midweek, followed by increasing rain chances toward the
end of the week.

High pressure slides east into the Atlantic ocean Wednesday. There
is enough dry air in place for Wednesday and Thursday to limit
shower and thunderstorm activity to isolated/widely scattered
coverage each afternoon/evening, mainly across northern North
Carolina.

As a cold front approaches Friday, the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms increases helped by southerly winds tapping deeper
moisture off the Atlantic ocean. The upper flow flattens
Saturday,allowing a cold front drops south across the region
Saturday into Saturday night. This will result in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best chances of storms will
be in the mountains. Unsettled weather may linger into early next
week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler
temperatures expected into Midweek, then temperatures moderate
into the weekend.

Moderate confidence in Long Term Forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR through most of the period. A few showers or storms may
brush BLF/LWB/BCB this afternoon and will amend if needed but
coverage is spotty, with better development expected west of
BLF-MKJ.

A lull in the showers tonight with fog possible at BCB/LWB but
mid/high clouds may increase limiting fog.

A better chance of storms Sunday after this period for the most
part mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility and wind.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The probability of afternoon and evening thunderstorms further
increases on Sunday. Overnight fog at LWB/BCB in the mornings is
expected and in any locations that receive rainfall.

Next front will bring a prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions
Sunday afternoon through Monday with widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday the precipitation behind the front will
slowly be ending from north to south with a surface based wedge
developing on the eastern side of the Appalachians. MVFR
ceilings are possible along and east of the Blue Ridge,
especially on Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP