Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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817 FXUS61 KRNK 130633 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary across the Mid Atlantic will set up in this general vicinity into early next week keeping shower and storm chances around into next week. Temperatures remain near or above normal.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Localized flooding will be possible under the heavier storms. 2) A Flood Watch has been issued for Appomattox and Buckingham Counties from this afternoon through late tonight. 3) Slightly cooler today but still quite warm. A short wave moving across NC was allowing some showers to continue early this morning. These should dissipate in the next couple of hours. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today and tonight, especially after 1 pm, as convective temperatures are reached and additional short wave energy arrives. Dew points in the 60s/near 70s and temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s produce MUCAPEs around 1500 J/kg. Bulk shear looks to be about 20-25 kts, while 0-1 km shear is about 5-10 kts. So at this point a briefly severe cell or two looks possible, but widespread severe is not expected. PWATs do come up markedly from an inch or less to 1.5 to 2 inches. A surface trough across the area may provide focus for training cells, as will a frontal boundary just to our north. These factors combined with slow storm motion around 15-20 mph and deep warm cloud layers to 16kft will support localized heavy rain possibly leading to urban, small stream, and flash flooding. The most likely area for flooding to occur would be in Appomattox and Buckingham Counties, where a Flood Watch has been issued for this afternoon through late tonight. Today, highs will be just a little cooler than Thursday, but it will still be quite warm and muggy. Cloud cover and high dew points will help keep overnight lows Friday night in the mid to upper 60s. Confidence in the near term is high.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Storms will be possible each day, with Sunday having the best chances area-wide. 2) Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal through the period. A stalled frontal boundary will be to our north on Saturday, stretching from New Jersey west into the Ohio Valley and into the Chicago area. Due to our area being south of the front, and a strong Bermuda high driving in moisture and warm air from the tropics, afternoon thunderstorms are expected due to diurnal heating. This pattern continues into Sunday, though the front drops down into our area. An upper-level shortwave trough will traverse through the area at the same time, which will further enhance lift, leading to widespread thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon. Monday will also have a similar setup, but the upper- level support fades, causing storms to be less widespread, especially in the Piedmont. Severe weather is not currently expected for any day, though an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out in the strongest storms. Precipitation totals will generally be around 1.0-2.0" during the period, with higher amounts possible under the heaviest storms. Flash flooding will be a concern, as most storms will be slow moving, and could train on each other. High moisture content will also allow for heavy rain to fall in a short period of time. Temperatures will stay near to slightly above normal through the period, with highs in the 70s/80s each day. Lows will generally be in the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) The unsettled pattern continues with afternoon storms possible each day next week. 2) Temperatures increase further late week, with widespread 90s for the Piedmont areas. The pattern will remain stagnant through the week, as a strong Bermuda high pressure will continue to drive warm, moist air into the Mid-Atlantic Region with southwesterly flow. The high moisture content along with warm temperatures with diurnal heating forces will allow thunderstorms to be possible each afternoon. Waves of low pressure in the mid-levels will enhance support throughout the week, which keep decent probabilities of rain across the area. West of the Blue Ridge will see the best chances with PoPs in the 50-60% range, thanks to the west- southwesterly flow. East of the Blue Ridge will have better instability, but less forcing, keeping PoPs lower, around 30-40%. Due to the summer-like pattern, severe weather is not widely anticipated, though the strongest storms could still cause wind damage. By Thursday night, a cold front moves into the area with upper-level support, which could bring strong storms, though current timing has them moving in overnight, which would limit any severe weather potential. The front moves through into Friday, finally breaking up the stagnant pattern across the area heading into next weekend as high pressure builds back into the area. Temperatures start out around normal to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. A slow increase in temperatures will see 80s in the higher elevations with widespread low 90s across the Piedmont beginning Wednesday through the end of the week. Lows remain very consistent through the period, mainly in the 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Thursday... Scattered VFR clouds continue to traverse west to east across the area this morning. Light showers continue away from TAF sites. Skies should remain broken to overcast VFR, becoming MVFR in spots late this afternoon and evening as another round of -TSRA/-SHRA develop. BLF/LWB/BCB/ROA look to have the best shot at -TSRA. Some of these cells could contain heavy rain and briefly drive conditions to LIFR. These should subside after 14/3-5Z, when stratus and fog will become widespread. Not looking for anything much below MVFR until after 6Z, when IFR and LIFR are more likely. Prevailing winds today will be light at around 5 knots or less out of the southwest. Winds tonight tonight look to remain calm to light and variable. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Storm chances remain elevated this weekend into early next week as a frontal boundary stays situated to the north of the area. Will not be a complete washout and expect VFR interspersed with sub-VFR cigs/vsbys in showers/storms and fog.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...SH