Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 251741 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 141 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will shift offshore by Sunday. The next front moves in by Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. High pressure and cooler weather are expected behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday with rain gradually ending. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 113 PM Saturday... You can expect widely scattered showers and storms along/west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon/evening, with better coverage Sunday afternoon... Showers and a few storms have formed early this afternoon in the mountains along theta-a ridge/low level moisture convergence gradient. Going with high-res solutions favors best coverage over the Mountain Empire/upper TN Valley or west of I-77 into southeast WV, with isolated coverage as far east as the Alleghanys/Roanoke Valley and foothills of NC. Showers fade this evening and should see come clearing before more clouds ahead of approaching front and shortwave move in late tonight into Sunday. Models in somewhat decent agreement in showing good chance of storms Sunday afternoon west of the Blue Ridge with little if any coverage in the piedmont. The better lift may not arrive til after this period in the east. Typical late June temperatures with lows in the 60s tonight with somewhat elevated humidity and patchy fog in the mountain valleys, though cloud cover may limit this in the west. Forecast on track with best chance of any convection this afternoon being confined to the mountains, especially along/west of I-77 where better low level moisture convergence and theta-e ridging exists. A few storms could pop or drift east toward the Roanoke/New River Valleys, north to the Alleghanys but no more than 20 pops here. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny with highs near 90 east to 80s west, except some 70s in the NC mountains and higher ridges of Southwest VA. With more clouds and earlier development of storms, highs Sunday may be a few degrees cooler than Saturday in the mountains with mid 70s to lower 80s, while the piedmont warms back into the upper 80s to around 90. Forecast confidence is average on shower coverage this afternoon, and above average for Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 141 PM EDT Saturday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night, becoming more widespread on Monday ahead and along the cold front. The broad subtropical ridge across the eastern United States will flatten on Sunday as a short-wave trough moves across southern Canada. A cold front will move across the region Sunday night into Monday. Convergence along the front combined with some instability will create showers and thunderstorms. The Day 2 convective outlook highlights a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms to our west. However, cannot rule out an isolated severe storm Sunday evening into Sunday night. Southwest flow will advect rich Gulf moisture northward along the Appalachians through Sunday night. Scattered showers may linger through the night as the cold front continues its approach. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the upper 50s in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the Piedmont. The cold front will move across the mountains Monday morning, and across the Piedmont during the afternoon. Precipitable water values climb into the 1.7-2.0" range by early afternoon east of the Blue Ridge allowing for favorable heavy rainfall conditions. In addition, CAPE values will potentially exceeding 1500 J/Kg, and will have to keep watch for the potential of wet microbursts as well as heavy rainfall rates that could lead to localized flash flooding, especially where storms train or move slowly. The cold front is expected to exit our area to the east by evening, with winds shifting from northwest. High temperatures Monday will be cooler with readings from the upper 60s in the mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont. High pressure will pass east across the lower Great Lakes Monday night, and will become established over Southern New England on Tuesday. This will result in a northeast winds across the Mid- Atlantic region into Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday will be cool with readings generally in the 70s. With the recent cold front becoming stalled across the Carolinas, there appears to be some potential for residual moisture near the front to trigger a few showers or storms, particularly along the southern Blue Ridge in northwest North Carolina given the local upslope windflow. Lows Tuesday night will vary from the mid 50s in the northwest mountains to the lower 60s in the Piedmont. Moderate confidence in the Short Term Period Forecast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 141 PM EDT Saturday... Mostly dry Midweek, followed by increasing rain chances toward the end of the week. High pressure slides east into the Atlantic ocean Wednesday. There is enough dry air in place for Wednesday and Thursday to limit shower and thunderstorm activity to isolated/widely scattered coverage each afternoon/evening, mainly across northern North Carolina. As a cold front approaches Friday, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms increases helped by southerly winds tapping deeper moisture off the Atlantic ocean. The upper flow flattens Saturday,allowing a cold front drops south across the region Saturday into Saturday night. This will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best chances of storms will be in the mountains. Unsettled weather may linger into early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures expected into Midweek, then temperatures moderate into the weekend. Moderate confidence in Long Term Forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 125 PM EDT Saturday... VFR through most of the period. A few showers or storms may brush BLF/LWB/BCB this afternoon and will amend if needed but coverage is spotty, with better development expected west of BLF-MKJ. A lull in the showers tonight with fog possible at BCB/LWB but mid/high clouds may increase limiting fog. A better chance of storms Sunday after this period for the most part mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge. Average confidence for ceiling, visibility and wind. Extended Aviation Discussion... The probability of afternoon and evening thunderstorms further increases on Sunday. Overnight fog at LWB/BCB in the mornings is expected and in any locations that receive rainfall. Next front will bring a prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions Sunday afternoon through Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday the precipitation behind the front will slowly be ending from north to south with a surface based wedge developing on the eastern side of the Appalachians. MVFR ceilings are possible along and east of the Blue Ridge, especially on Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/RCS/WP

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