Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 170620 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 120 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front over the Great Lakes will move southeast tonight and dissipate over the Mid Atlantic region on Monday. A stronger cold front will cross the eastern United States Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will build in across the East Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 920 PM EST Sunday... The forecast will be adjusted to decrease slightly the coverage and amount of precipitation that will impact southeast West Virginia through the early morning hours of Monday. Meso-scale models and upstream radar trends are both supporting this adjustment. As of 635 PM EST Sunday... No major changes are planned for the overall forecast for the overnight hours. Precipitation over NC/SC is still expect to remain mainly south of the region. A few sprinkles over the far southeast parts of the region cannot be ruled out. Also, isolated to scattered light rain/snow showers are still forecast for parts of southeast West Virginia, south into the Northern Mountains of North Carolina. Have tweaked hourly temperatures, dew points, winds/gusts and sky cover to better reflect the latest observations and expected trends through the evening hours. As of 1240 PM EST Sunday... 500 MB pattern States zonal with split flow tonight and Monday. Deeper moisture out of Georgia and South Carolina will approach northern North Carolina and southern Virginia by this evening but models keep a majority of the precipitation southeast of Danville. Band of moisture within the northern stream reaches the mountains by late afternoon with more cloud cover crossing the area overnight. The chance of light precipitation will remain over the mountains mainly during the evening. Enough cloud cover tonight and Monday to limit large diurnal temperatures swings. Will stay close to National Blend guidance for lows tonight and highs on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... A cold front trails from a surface low moving northeast through the Great Lakes region. This front will approach and pass over our area Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, bringing a brief round of rain with light accumulation totals, with around half an inch falling along the mountains, where orographic effects will help squeeze the most moisture out of the atmosphere. Most of this rain will fall Tuesday afternoon and evening. After the front passes it will begin to settle as a boundary in a zonal orientation to the south of us Wednesday. Though guidance differs on the location where the boundary will set itself up, there is general agreement that it will be far enough south that the chances at receiving more rain in our CWA after Wednesday morning are low. Tuesday`s temperatures will be warm, with highs generally in the 50s, and the Piedmont potentially tapping into the low 60s. A slight cooldown follows the front on Wednesday, but cloud cover should moderate any diurnal fluctuations, with highs in the upper 40s, and lows overnight into Thursday morning in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... An upper trough over the region Thursday will slide east and push off the coast Thursday night into Friday. Then, the trough move out into the Atlantic ocean during the weekend. This will allow high pressure and upper ridging to build across our area. High pressure over the Midwest Thursday morning will slide east to the Ohio Valley Thursday night. The ECMWF and GFS showed a weak shortwave rotating around the upper trough. Moisture associated with this feature looked overdone on models. The GFS was hinting at some light snow, around an half inch or less for the northwest mountains of North Carolina. Overtime, the details will become clearer on this system. Utilized the NBM for pops on Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will range from the upper 20s in the west to the mid 40s in the east. Under partly cloudy skies and light winds, Thursday night will be cold with readings generally the lower teens to the lower 20s. The high center will be overhead Friday into Friday night. Friday will feature high temperatures in the lower 30s in the mountains to the lower 40s in the piedmont with sunshine. Low temperatures Friday night will vary from the upper teens in the deeper mountain valleys to the mid 20s along the Blue Ridge. The high center will slide Saturday into Sunday. High temperatures on Saturday will moderate into the lower 40s in the mountains to the lower 50s in the piedmont. Under clear to partly cloudy conditions, low temperatures Saturday night will generally be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. The warming trend continues Sunday with high temperatures form the lower 40s in the west to the mid 50s in the east. With variable clouds, low temperatures Sunday night will moderate to the mid 30s in the west to around 40 degrees in the southeast. Medium to high confidence in the Long Term Forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Monday... VFR conditions expected to prevail across the central Appalachians through Monday...winds generally light from the east to southeast. Wind speeds will gradually increase and become gusty across the ridges Monday night as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will also bring increasing clouds with lowering cloud bases Monday night, rain arriving Tuesday morning. Forecast confidence = High. Extended Aviation Discussion... Tuesday morning, rain will be on the increase and ceilings will trend towards sub-VFR with the approach of a cold front. Sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible Tuesday afternoon and night with the passage of a cold front. An abrupt wind shift northwest will take place either late Tuesday afternoon or early Tuesday evening. Winds will be gusty through Tuesday evening, but decrease by daybreak Wednesday. Residuals showers are expected across the area Wednesday. Sub- VFR ceilings are possible still across the mountains. Colder air filtering into the region may switch rain showers to snow showers at the higher elevations. VFR conditions return Wednesday night into Friday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/DS SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...PM

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