Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 060732 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 232 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front crosses the region today, bringing an end to rain and snow showers except for the highest mountains. Otherwise, winds will gust up to 20 to 30 mph today before diminishing tonight. Much colder air filters in today and tonight. Temperatures rebound slowly Thursday through Saturday with dry weather. Rain chances increase once again Saturday night through Sunday night, with snow showers possible for the mountains Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 210 AM EST Wednesday... Key Message: 1. Snow/rain showers continue for mainly the western VA/NC mountains and SE WV today before ending. Winter Weather Advisories still in effect. 2. NW winds pick up after daybreak gusting to 15-30 mph. 3. Becoming sunny but still chilly east of the Blue Ridge today. To the west clouds and even cooler temperatures will linger. Satellite imagery this morning shows a trough axis poised to swing through the area shortly. This trough had its mid and upper level origins in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. High pressure moving out of the central Plains will build in behind the trough and reinforce cooler and drier weather. Precipitation remains hit and miss, and will continue to mainly affect the western NC and VA mountains and southeastern WV. Downwind towards the edge of the Blue Ridge, lighter rain and snow showers were falling. Winter Weather Advisories are currently in effect through at least this afternoon, depending on the location. Newer guidance indicates the wind shift to the NW and the beginning of the end of this precipitation may occur sooner, so it is possible if not likely the advisories will be cancelled early. That said, gusty upsloping NW winds will continue to squeeze moisture out over the mountains, while the same winds will downslope to the east and bring an end to any precipitation there sooner. QPF with this system has always looked low, and this is why we are having such a hard time with accumulations of snow and rain. Saturation in the dendritic growth zone shuts down in our area after 10 AM, so not expecting much accumulation thereafter, especially with incoming short wave radiation. Gusty NW winds of 15-25 mph, (maybe 30 mph for the higher peaks) will develop after daybreak and diminish this evening as the PGF relaxes. Temperatures will struggle against moderate cold air advection and the wind will only make it seem chillier. Highs will only reach the low to upper 30s for the mountains, and the mid to upper 40s for the piedmont. This is about 5-12 degrees below normal for today. Tonight, calm winds and clear skies east of the Blue Ridge along with CAA will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s. To the west, slightly stronger CAA will battle with insulating cloud cover and slightly higher wind speeds to produce temperatures in the low to mid 20s. Thus not that much of a difference between east and west. The highest ridges will stay just a tad warmer. Confidence in the near term forecast is high.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Dry and Breezy. 2. Temperatures warm to above normal. 3. Moisture slowly increases Saturday. Trough axis continues to push out into the Atlantic ocean, allowing upper ridging to build into our region. By Saturday, the upper trough to our west reaches the Ohio Valley. Northwest to west flow aloft continues Thursday, before upper ridging builds over the Southeast and into the Mid Atlantic region in response to a trough deepening over the Southwest. Therefore, the upper flow will transition to westerly and then southwesterly by the end of the week. Surface high pressure builds into our area and remains overhead through Friday night. Then, the high center slides into the Atlantic ocean on Saturday. This will result in moderating temperatures and dry weather. High temperatures on Thursday will vary from around 40 degrees in the mountains to the lower 50s in the Piedmont. Highs warm into mid 50s to lower 60s for Friday. Then, for Saturday high temperatures range from the mid 50s in the west to the mid 60s in the east with increasing clouds. Low temperatures for Thursday and Friday night will generally be in the upper 20s to the mid 30s. Forecast confidence is moderate to high for the Short Term Forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Increasing confidence for more widespread rainfall Saturday Night and Sunday. 2. Dry weather returns Monday into Wednesday. A strong upper trough moves into the east Saturday night and Sunday. The associated cold front should reach the Central Appalachians by Sunday. This system looks to bring more widespread rainfall to the area, given that forecast precipitable water values are near the 90th percentile of climatology as southwesterly flow off the Gulf brings in increased moisture. With the trough becoming more negatively tilted as it moves into the Ohio Valley, some instability and with higher dewpoints, decided to add the mention of a slight chance for a thunderstorm for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures cool enough Sunday night for some snow showers to mix in with the rain for the higher elevations in southeast West Virginia. The combination of steep pressure rises and strong cold air advection behind the front could result in strong and gusty winds later Sunday into Monday. The front will quickly cross the area, and high pressure and dry weather return for the beginning of the workweek. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the weekend, but cooling down after the frontal passage on Sunday. Then, cooler temperatures linger into Midweek. Forecast confidence is low to moderate for Long Term Forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 210 AM EST Wednesday... Ceilings and visibilities range from VFR to LIFR as a trough crosses the area this morning with rain and snow showers. West winds turn more to the NW and will gust 15-30 mph after 12Z with higher gusts at higher elevations. Winds diminish after 21Z. The NW winds will help clear out showers and clouds east of the Blue Ridge likely well before noon. Snow showers should end for BLF and LWB a little later than other TAF sites. It appears MVFR clouds will hold in the mountains through at least 07/06Z and possibly Thursday morning. To the east it will remain VFR. Above average confidence for ceilings, visibilities, and winds. Extended Aviation Discussion... Once mountain stratus clears Thursday morning, conditions stay VFR everywhere through Saturday. Winds will come from the west or southwest Thursday through Saturday. Clouds will increase by Saturday night as a cold front approaches. This front should bring widespread rain and MVFR/IFR ceilings for Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ015. NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ001-018. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ508.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...PW/SH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.