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697
FXUS61 KRNK 120008
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
808 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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No changes to forecast.

Frost Advisory for Greenbrier County in West Virginia, and for
Bath County in Virginia for tonight into Tuesday morning. Patchy
frost in the mountains valleys. Patchy dense fog also expected
across most of the area.

Severe weather possible Wednesday afternoon as a cold front
passes through, with isolated damaging winds as the threat.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost Advisory issued for Greenbrier and Bath Counties
tonight, patchy frost possible elsewhere across the mountains,
with patchy dense fog in the Piedmont.

2) The next system moves in Wednesday, with possible severe weather.

3) Below normal temperatures continue through Friday, then a
significant warmup occurs for early next week with near record
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
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KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost Advisory in effect for Greenbrier and Bath
Counties tonight, patchy frost possible elsewhere across the
mountain valleys, with patchy dense fog in the Piedmont.

Rain has ended and skies have cleared for all areas except just
east of the Blue Ridge where cool wedge remains in place. Models
are insistent that patchy dense fog will form lee of Blue Ridge
where late day clearing coupled with light winds and relatively
higher dewpoints (in the mid 40s) will lead to fog formation
there. Farther northwest into the mountains and mountain
valleys, clearing during the afternoon has allowed for
dewpoints to fall into the upper 20s and 30s which will be more
supportive of patchy frost or ground fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The next system moves into the area Wednesday, with
possible severe weather.

After a dry day Tuesday, a cold front will approach the area on
Wednesday, aided by an upper level trough. Models are beginning
to indicate that a line of storms will develop in the
afternoon, a few possibly capable of producing damaging winds.
SPC currently has most of our Virginia counties along/west of
the Blue Ridge in a Marginal Risk for severe weather on
Wednesday. Confidence remains low in this occurring, as
scattered morning showers could hinder instability and lower the
severe threat later in the afternoon. Nonetheless, any clearing
of skies would allow for severe weather to be possible.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Below normal temperatures continue through Friday,
then a significant warmup occurs for early next week with near
record temperatures.

Temperatures will remain just below normal for the rest of the work
week, with highs in the 60s/70s most days. The exception to this
will be Thursday, where strong northwesterly flow behind a cold
front lowers highs into the 50s/60s. Overnight lows remain in the
40s to around 50 degrees each night, though Friday morning could
bring mid to upper 30s back to the higher elevations in the
mountains, and possibly some patchy frost once again.

A warmup then occurs over the weekend, with temperatures rising into
the 80s area-wide by Sunday. Early next week, summer looks to make
an entrance, with possibly the highest temperatures so far this
year, as highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s in the
mountains, and low 90s across the Piedmont. These highs could
threaten some records in the Piedmont should the forecast
materialize.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Rain has ended. Now monitoring for patch dense fog development
for the overnight. The HRRR suggests southside VA and into the
piedmont of VA/NC will be the place to watch for LIFR conditions
late tonight. Until the fog develops, anticipating mainly VFR.

Any fog that develops tonight is expected to dissipate after
13Z/9AM Tuesday with widespread VFR anticipated for Tuesday
afternoon.

Winds overnight are expected to diminish to near calm, then
increase out of the south Tuesday...speeds under 10kts.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Fair weather is expected Tuesday night, with area-wide VFR. The
next frontal system moves in Wednesday, with showers/storms in
the afternoon, possibly with some severe winds, bringing likely
sub-VFR flight conditions into Wednesday night. Winds will be
gusting around 20 knots late Wednesday from the southwest,
shifting to the northwest behind the front on Thursday, but
still gusting to around 20 knots. VFR returns with dry weather
early Thursday, lasting into the weekend. Isolated afternoon
mountain showers/storms could affect BLF/LWB each day this
weekend.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ020.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB/PM
AVIATION...PM