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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 171058
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
558 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair but cool weather to the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the
weekend. A weak cold front will then move through Monday and
monday night, bringing a chance for rain or snow showers to
locations west of the Blue Ridge for the first part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EST Saturday...

High pressure sliding eastward across the Appalachians and
central mid Atlantic region will bring fair weather to the
region today, with any lingering upslope cloudiness west of the
Blue Ridge dissipating after daybreak.

Temperatures will be a bit warmer today though still a bit
below normal with mid/upper 50s east of the Ridge and low/mid
50s to the west. Lows tonight will generally be in the 30s,
though there will likely be a decent hill/valley spread as the
valleys cool but the ridges start getting into warm air
advection on the backside of the high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EST Saturday...

We will finish out the weekend on Sunday with quiet but
increasingly cloudy weather  as a wedge of high pressure sets
up ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the northwest.
The approaching front has been slowing down over the last few
model runs, and it looks like the front will take its time
crossing the region Monday into Monday night. There is not a lot
of forcing with the front and it looks like any rain/snow
showers will be confined to locations west of the Blue Ridge for
Monday, Monday night, and into Tuesday before high pressure
builds in from the Mississippi valley Tuesday night.

Temperatures will generally be below normal into the first part
of next  week, though a bit of a warm surge ahead of the front
Monday will boost readings to right about normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...

This portion of the forecast continue the trend of little if any
precipitation forecast for the region. The southeast Canadian high
is expected to be shunted eastward in response to upper level
ridging shifting eastward through central CONUS. By Thanksgiving
Day, the center of the ridge is expected to be centered over the
area. The center of the ridge will start to shift east of the area
on Friday, in response to the approach of a shortwave trough and
associated surface cold front around the Mississippi Valley.

The resultant forecast for our region is dry through at least
Thursday  night. Temperatures will be coolest on Wednesday with
readings averaging 5 degrees below normal. By Friday,
temperatures return to near normal.

There is a question on Friday as to whether or not any precipitation
starts working its way into the far southwestern portion of the area
ahead of the approaching cold front to the west. Those chances
increase Friday night according to both the European and Canadian
solutions as they merge both the front and a southern stream low
skirting the Gulf Coast states. The GFS keeps these two systems as
separate entities, and thus, neither a major weather influence for
our region.

Forecast confidence for this portion of the forecast is
moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 5550 AM EST Saturday...

Low clouds from the Alleghany Highlands down into the New River
Valley are affecting KLWB with MVFR cigs. Expect these clouds to
dissipate by mid morning, leaving all sites VFR through the
period. There is a signal for some fog developing toward
daybreak Sunday morning but not enough confidence to include
with this forecast package.

winds will generally be light through the period with no impact
to aircraft operations.

Forecast confidence is moderate to high.

Extended Discussion...

Overall VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the
weekend. However some models show the potential for lower
ceilings in the east ahead of weak cold front by Sunday, and
across the mountains in the wake of the boundary Sunday night
into Monday where MVFR will be possible. High pressure then
looks to build in with good flying conditions expected Monday
night through Wednesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/MBS