Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241712 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 112 PM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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High Pressure over the north Atlantic will keep cool northeast maritime flow across the region through Friday. Aside from a few clouds, mainly fair dry weather is anticipated through Friday. Moisture from the Atlantic will bring an increased chance for afternoon/evening showers and a few thunderstorms by the weekend. Temperatures will be slightly below normal through Friday, then warm to seasonal norms for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... Stagnant pattern to remain in place through Friday with High Pressure across the northern Atlantic resulting in seasonally cool maritime northeast to easterly low-level flow across the region. Aside from a few clouds, mainly fair dry weather prevails. Will have to watch coastal front and sea breeze over eastern NC. Any showers which develop along this boundary many sneak into our southeast CWA late in the day Friday. Slight chance pops should be enough to account for this for now. Temperatures through Friday favor the cool side of normal by about 5 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... Upper ridge over the western Atlantic retrogrades Friday night and Saturday. 500 MB across the United States reverses to a ridge-trough- ridge by Sunday. Very little change in overall weather pattern. Showers and thunderstorms along a coastal front may produce an outflow boundary that moves northwest into the piedmont on Saturday afternoon. Otherwise no focus for storms so most favored areas will be along the Blue Ridge. Coverage expected to stay isolated to scattered. This is due in part to the warm temperatures and cap aloft and the subsidence under the ridge. The same subsidence and warm air mass will keep temperatures at or just above normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Eastern United States remains under the upper ridge through Wednesday. Synoptic scale models were showing a deepening upper trough over the Great Lakes with potentially a closed low by Thursday and lower 500 mb heights over the East. The daily probability of showers and thunderstorms continues through Wednesday. No organized short waves or focus for thunderstorms so will keep coverage in the isolated to scattered range. Highs will be around or just above normal and lows will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... ...Low End VFR Cloud Bases to Persist Southwest along Blue Ridge, Otherwise little sensible weather through the valid TAF period... Clouds remain stuck underneath subsidence inversion where weak easterly upslope flow is resulting in pool of shallow layer of moisture between 3-5kft AGL. This cloud layer will likely persist through the remainder of the afternoon. Models suggest it will gradually scatter this evening. For tonight, anticipating mainly VFR. Potential for mountain valley fog if skies remain clear. There is a chance that low cloud may reform underneath the subsidence inversion again. If this happens then fog is less likely. Winds will remain northeast to east-southeast through the TAF valid period at speeds of 5-7kts. Forecast Confidence = Good. Extended Aviation Discussion... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may sneak into the far southeast part of the area late Friday, most likely to impact KDAN, if at all, and could also impact the Blue Ridge of NW NC. Otherwise Friday should remain dry and mainly VFR outside of any early morning fog. Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected through next Wednesday, although moisture and instability will gradually increase each day, and thus the chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Increased low level moisture will also result in greater likelihood for late night/early morning IFR to LIFR fog/low clouds.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PM

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