Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall:

A frontal boundary with two embedded low pressure systems near
26N90W and 26N85W are gradually tracking east-northeastward
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Abundant moisture
associated with these lows is coupling with divergent winds aloft
to trigger scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over
the central and southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida. Some of these thunderstorms can become severe, capable of
producing heavy downpours with reduced visibility, frequent gale-
force wind gusts and even waterspouts. These thunderstorms are
over the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida, and are expected
to reach southeastern Florida later this afternoon. Heavy
downpours will produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across southern
Florida through Saturday afternoon. Please refer to your local NWS
Weather Forecast Offices at website: https://www.weather.gov for
the latest advisories and warnings.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:

A 1004 mb low pressure over central Louisiana and its related
strong cold front across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will
continue to push eastward over the next several days. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to
50 nm northwest of the front. The cold front is anticipated to
exit into the western Atlantic early Saturday morning. Near- gale
to gale- force southerly winds ahead of this front will occur from
the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N and between 76W and
80W by late this evening. Seas in this area will build to between
10 and 13 ft. As the front moves farther eastward, these near-
gale to gale- force winds will shift to north of 27N between 68W
and 75W by Saturday afternoon. Seas are going to peak at 13 to 16
ft. By Sunday morning, this areas of gale winds and high seas are
expected to be north of 28N between 65W and 68W. Afterward, both
winds and seas should gradually subside through Sunday evening as
the front steadily weakens.

Mariners should monitor all the above hazardous marine conditions
and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High
Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Gambia and southern Senegal, then reaches southwestward to
03N28W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed near
and south of the rough from the Equator to 05N E between 10W and
31W. There is no ITCZ presence north of the Equator based on the
latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Frequent Gale Gusts
and Heavy Rainfall.

Besides the features and related weather mentioned in the Special
Features Section, a surface trough is triggering patchy showers
over the western-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Fresh
to strong with locally near-gale southerly winds and seas at 5 to
8 ft are present at the southeastern and east-central Gulf,
including the Straits of Florida and near the Florida Keys.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted at the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SW to NW
winds with seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail for the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front mentioned in the Special Features
section will reach from near Pensacola, FL to near Veracruz,
Mexico this evening, and then exit the Gulf to the southeast late
Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds will spill across
the Gulf well behind the front tonight through Sat. High pressure
in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward from late
Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly
winds to develop over the western Gulf, ahead of the next cold
front. Strong southerly winds will shift to the central and
eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as the next cold front
enters the western Gulf late Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface ridge extending southeastward from near Bermuda is
sustaining a fair trade-wind regime across the entire Caribbean
Sea. Convergent trade winds are triggering widely scattered
showers near Jamaica and Haiti. Fresh to strong ENE to SE winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen at the south-central and
northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan
Channel. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and
4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE to S winds at the
northwestern basin and Yucatan Channel will continue through this
afternoon as low pressure crosses the Gulf of Mexico and tracks
eastward. The low will move northeastward and into the southeast
U.S. tonight through Sat, with an attendant cold front reaching
the Yucatan Channel and the far northwestern basin Sat afternoon.
The front will then reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-
Nicaragua border Sun evening, before stalling and dissipating on
Mon. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over the western basin
late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering
the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
an upcoming Gale Warning.

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N50W to near 23N57W, then continues west-southwestward as
a shear line to just north of the Dominican Republic. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm southeast of the
cold front. Scattered showers are evident near and up to 60 nm
north of the shear line. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found
north of 20N between the cold front and Georgia/Florida coast. At
the central Atlantic, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 6 to 8
ft in moderate easterly swell exist north of 20N between 40W and
the cold front. At the eastern Atlantic north of 18N between 25W
and 40W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft in
large NE swell are present. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to
strong NNE to NE winds and 11 to 14 ft seas in large N swell
dominate north of 25N between the northwest Africa coast and 25W.
Farther south, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 6 to
10 ft in moderate to large N swell are seen from 12N to 18N
between the central Africa coast and 30W, including the Cabo Verde
Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between
30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and
4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure is centered along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. and will shift east-northeastward
and strengthen through the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S winds
east of Florida will increase to strong to near-gale force this
afternoon, as low pressure tracks eastward across the Gulf of
Mexico, and then inland across the southeastern U.S. tonight.
Strong southerly winds will expand in coverage between Florida and
67W, ahead of a cold front, increasing to gale-force tonight from
the Bahamas northward. The front will exit northeast Florida Sat
afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to central Cuba on Sun morning,
from 31N64W to the Windward Passage by Mon morning, then weaken
considerably as it moves southeastward across the northeast
Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters through Tue. Strong to near
gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will follow the front
Sun through Mon to the east of northern and central Florida.

$$

Chan


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