Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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951 FXUS61 KBTV 111747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will develop and move slowly today into tonight, with northern New York seeing the most numerous showers. Additional shower activity is expected on Sunday as weak low pressure crosses the region, with temperatures trending a bit cooler with more persistent cloudiness. Following the weekend, chances for rain return but with no signs of impactful, stormy weather. Temperatures look to remain largely seasonable. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1233 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes were made with this update. Daytime heating has caused showers to develop over northern New York and they will continue to expand in coverage during the afternoon. They will become numerous over northern New York and expand into western Vermont where they will be more scattered. Cloud cover has also increased, and it should be mostly cloudy and overcast for the rest of the day. Pea sized hail is possible in the strongest storms in New York but there is not a threat of severe storms. Previous discussion follows... Previous Discussion... This weekend will feature unsettled weather with periodic shower activity. We remain confident there will be no thunderstorms with these showers as neither surface heating or cooling aloft will be strong enough to boost instability enough to get sufficiently cold cloud tops. That being said, skinny CAPE, even with limited warm cloud depths, and slow steering flow will lead to some downpours in a classic hit and miss type of shower regime. The most numerous showers this afternoon will be in northern New York, with coverage of showers a bit more limited in the Champlain Valley. East of the Greens shower chances decrease to near zero due to stable marine air continuing to drifting in from the southeast. Precipitation chances on Sunday become more evenly distributed across our region as the upper low passes to our east with a broad trough overhead and low level flow becoming more westerly in eastern Vermont. This pattern also will induce more widespread cloud cover, keeping temperatures a bit cooler, limiting instability such that it cancels out the somewhat cooler temperatures aloft. In total, rainfall amounts will average under 0.25" for most locations. That being said, some areas will see more rain. While the official, deterministic forecast shows total rainfall through the weekend of up to around a half inch in the northwestern Adirondacks, time-lagged NAM 3km output along with the HREF probability- matched mean suggests very localized amounts of near an inch of rain in this area. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...Weak riding mainly in the mid lvls builds into our region on Sunday night, followed by a warm type feature on Monday. Weak ridge could provide conditions favorable for some patchy fog, but feel potential is conditional and overall probability is <20% attm so have not placed in fcst. Temps if some clearing can develop could drop into the lower/mid 30s coldest valleys to lower/mid 40s CPV/SLV. For Monday a warm frnt lifts from sw to ne acrs our cwa with increasing chc for showers. This boundary becomes stationary acrs our cwa late Monday into Tues as it parallels the flow aloft with additional moisture advection. Difficult to pin point exact placement of boundary and precip given a rather complex mid/upper lvl pattern with closed cyclonic circulation near Hudson Bay and building SE CONUS ridge. For now have highest chc pops along the International Border for Monday into Monday night. Temps with clouds hold mostly in the 60s on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 321 AM EDT Saturday...An unsettled pattern prevails into midweek with increasing probabilities of a widespread wetting rainfall on Tues into Tue night. Still some guidance discrepancies on exact placement of heaviest qpf axis associated with stalled boundary acrs our region. Latest trends continue to support a split flow with limited phasing btwn northern and southern stream systems thru mid week. In addition, have noted the NBM CAPE of 250 J/kg or greater on Tues is <10% acrs our region, as soundings show a stable/moist adiabatic profile with limited sfc heating due to clouds/precip. If cwa can break out in the warm sector some instability is possible for thunder, but trends are too low attm to mention in fcst. Have continued with high likely pops on Tues/Tues night, which can be increased if needed as confidence improves for a widespread wetting rainfall. Have noted several ensemble members showing a much more suppressed outcome, resulting in drier conditions, similar to what unfolded on Friday acrs our cwa. Temps hold mostly in the upper 50s to upper 60s thru Weds. Uncertainty increases further for late week, as predictability in complex mid/upper lvl pattern is low. Latest ECMWF shows developing ridge over low pres type scenario, with cyclonic circulation a bit close for comfort to have high confidence in a dry fcst on Thurs/Friday. Meanwhile, GFS is advertising weak s/w ridge building into our region on Thurs/Fri with drier conditions and comfortable temps. For now have trended drier with near normal temps, given the large spread in guidance. Bottom line no significant or high impactful weather is anticipated over the next 5 to 7 days. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...All terminals are currently VFR and they should generally stay that way through tonight. Scattered showers have developed across northern New York and the heaviest showers could briefly cause MVFR visibilities at SLK and MSS. There is a lower chance that there could briefly be MVFR visibilities at PBG and BTV. However, visibilities will be VFR for the vast majority of the time at all terminals. Some showers will persist overnight in northern New York but they will likely not be heavy enough to cause any significant visibility restrictions. Ceilings will begin to lower tonight and they may become MVFR for parts of the day tomorrow. Winds will continue to be relatively light during the TAF period and LLWS is not a concern. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Myskowski SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Myskowski