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000
FXUS62 KCAE 111846
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
246 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible this
afternoon. Gusty winds will continue today and Friday. Drier,
warmer weather fills in behind the front for the upcoming
weekend and early next week as high pressure and upper ridging
move over head.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong upper level low continues moving through the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon with the surface low analyzed over
central TN. The trough will be lifting off to the northeast into
this evening. Satellite imagery reveals dry slot behind the main
area of precip which moved through the region this morning. In this
area, PW values have dropped to between 1.2" and 1.4". The scattered
to broken clouds are allowing some sunlight to reach the ground,
with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s. Dewpoints
remain in the upper 60s, generating some surface based instability
of around 1000 J/kg of CAPE. With the surface front and upper level
trough yet to move through the area, we aren`t totally out of the
woods regarding another round of showers and thunderstorms. However,
the dry air aloft will make it very tough for convection to reach
sufficient vertical development that comes along with any severe
weather threat. The exception may be along our northern CWA border
near the SC/NC line where the mid level moisture may hang on a bit
longer, and/or be reinforced by the approaching upper low which does
still have a bit of a moisture field with it.

Otherwise, a very tight pressure gradient still exists across the
area and should continue as the surface low tracks to our northeast.
Sustained winds of 15-20+ mph, with wind gusts of 35+ mph possible
will be possible through this evening and a Wind Advisory remains in
effect through 8 pm for the entire area.

The system moves away from us late tonight with the front passing
through and drier air mixing into the region all the way to the
surface. Skies will clear but the gradient remains strong as winds
shift to the southwest and eventually the west. Despite the clearing
skies, mixing will keep temperatures from reaching their coolest
potential, so expect to bottom out only in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key message for the short term:

Gusty winds expected through the day Friday.

Upper trough continues to move across the Southeast. As it does an
embedded shortwave within the trough is forecast to wrap around the
parent upper low, which is expected to sharpen the larger scale
trough as it moves overhead. This should lead to cold temperatures
aloft, allowing for high mixing heights through the day,
particularly in the afternoon. At the surface, a low pressure center
over the Great Lakes continues to drift to the north or northeast as
a high pressure system builds in from the west. This will lead to a
tightening pressure gradient and stronger surface winds of 15-20
mph. Gusts are likely to be on the stronger side as winds at the top
of the mixed layer are forecast to be in the 40-50 mph range. Latest
guidance is picking up on this as they are showing wind gusts in the
35-40 mph range, which seems reasonable. Therefore, have decided to
issue a Lake Wind Advisory from mid-morning tomorrow into the
evening.

Due to the lower heights aloft and some cold air advection,
temperatures are expected to be cooler than the past few days.
Generally, highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s north and west
to lower 70s south and east. In addition, a stray shower or two is
possible in the northern portions of the forecast area in the
afternoon, but chances are low (5-10%).
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much change in the latest guidance for the long term forecast as
dry and warm conditions are expected to persist through the long
term period. An upper ridge is forecast to move over the area
beginning on Saturday and remaining overhead through midweek. At the
surface, high pressure slowly drifts east across the Southeast. As
result, a warming trend into the mid 80s to potentially upper 80s is
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR conditions continue at the terminals, though some occasional
improvements to VFR should occur this afternoon. SFC wind is going
to be a major factor at all TAF sites through the entire period.
SLY/SWLY windspeeds generally 15-20 kts with gusts of 30 kts likely
into this evening. Skies clear late tonight with a brief weakening
in the winds to 10-15 kts as directionality becomes WLY. Speeds
increasing again Friday morning with gusts around 25 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Strong and gusty winds continuing
through Friday. VFR conditions return for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$