079
ACUS03 KWNS 101929
SWODY3
SPC AC 101928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan
vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe
thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern
High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN
border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an
increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of
the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level
(30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great
Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the
handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as
well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from
prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy
development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in
the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic
cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI.
However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is
uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs
suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at
clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday
afternoon.

...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains...
Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With
only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough,
afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence
of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear.
Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a
slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion
of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants
broad, low severe probabilities at this time.

..Grams.. 07/10/2025

$$