652
FXUS63 KMQT 090527
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
127 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple passing low pressure systems will keep rain chances
  in the forecast into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a broad mid-level low
centered over SD and troffing over se Canada back into the Great
Lakes. Into the latter trof, a shortwave is dropping toward Lake
Superior. Btwn the mid-level low and the eastern trof, a col is over
ne MN/NW WI. In the wake of the shortwave that brought rain to the
area last night, particularly the e half of Upper MI, it`s been a
dry aftn so far, but daytime heating has led to cu/stratocu
development inland from the stabilizing influence of Lake Superior.
Recent radar imagery indicates that these clouds are now building
enough depth for some sprinkles or a few -shra in eastern Gogebic
County. Temps currently range from the 40s near Lake Superior to the
mid 60s F in the interior closer to the MI/WI stateline.

Approaching shortwave from the n and weak diurnal instability will
support some -shra/sprinkles over portions of interior western
Upper MI near the MI/WI stateline for the next several hrs. Not
out of the question that a few sprinkles could develop over the
eastern fcst area as well given the buildup of clouds in that
area. A dry night will then follow with skies becoming partly
cloudy. 850mb thermal trof is currently supporting considerable
stratocu ne of Lake Superior. As this thermal trof advects sw,
stratocu will also advance sw. Some of this cloudiness may
appear in Upper MI around sunrise, but probably more so during
Thu morning. Expect low temps tonight in the mid 30s to lwr 40s
F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough extending from New
England down to the central Rockies 12z Thu. There is also a
shortwave in northern Saskatchewan 12z Thu which heads down to Lake
Winnipeg 00z Fri and into the upper Great Lakes on Fri. Dry and
quiet weather lasts into Fri afternoon. Di no make too many changes
to the going forecast overall.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the ern
U.S. and a trough in the central Rockies and ridge on the west coast
12z Sun. There is also a shortwave in south central Canada 12z Sun
that moves into the upper Great Lakes Sun night. A shortwave moves
into the northern Rockies 12z Tue and into the northern plains 12z
Wed. Temperatures will continue to be above normal for this forecast
period and will be unsettled with weak systems moving through the
area with one on Sunday and one on Wednesday with a sfc front
hanging around the area as well according to the manual sfc progs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Lower level moisture is mixing out and is being lifted by building
mixed layer. Advection of stabilizing marine layer off of Lake
Superior will also work to limit any cu/stratocu development closer
to the lake this aftn. For IWD/CMX, this stabilizing influence will
allow VFR to prevail this aftn, and VFR will continue tonight. At
SAW, expect stabilizing flow off of Lake Superior to result in MVFR
cigs scattering out to VFR in the next hr or two. VFR will then
continue at SAW tonight. Area of lower level moisture represented by
the stratocu per vis satellite imagery well ne of Lake Superior will
advect sw today and tonight. While some of this moisture will mix
out this aftn, it should contribute to cu/stratocu/MVFR cigs
developing at all terminals after sunrise on Thu. After a few hrs
or so, cloud bases will lift to VFR, or the clouds will scatter out
to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots will prevail through tonight
mainly over western and central portions of Lake Superior. After
that, despite wind shifts due to multiple low pressure systems,
winds will remain below 20 knots through Monday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this
     morning to 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ240-
     241.

  Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for
     LSZ242.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ243.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ244-
     245.

  Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to noon EDT
     today for LSZ248-249.

  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ250.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...07