Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
477 FXZS60 NSTU 140103 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 203 PM SST Mon May 13 2024 .Short term... The front, that produced 14.63 inches of rain from this past Wednesday through Sunday, has finally moved south of American Samoa. A strong ridge from the southeast is now over the region giving the territory a mix of sun and clouds with the occasional passing shower and an easterly breeze of around 15 mph. These conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon and through the overnight hours. However, we are monitoring a trough, about 325 miles to the east of Ta`u as of early this afternoon, moving towards the territory. The trough is expected to arrive around mid morning on Tuesday. Showers may be consistent at times during the day, but the atmospheric conditions does not show that the trough will be strong enough to produce flash flooding in the region. As the trough moves through, expect easterlies to increase up to around 25 mph with higher gusts at times throughout the day. By Tuesday evening, showers will become less frequent. The trough will move west overnight Tuesday and the ridge will move back over the region through Thursday. Easterlies only decrease to around 20 mph. The likelihood of showers decreases to scattered showers (50% chance). If showers occur, it will be in the passing form. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds are expected throughout the day. .Long term... By Friday and the weekend, a weak ridge will move over the region from the southwest. Easterly winds will decrease to around 10 to 15 mph. If any showers occur, it will be in the passing form and severe weather is not anticipated during this time. && .Marine... Seas remained hazardous this morning and early this afternoon as the moderate to fresh easterly breeze mixes in with the long period southerly swell moving through the American Samoa coastal waters. Seas of 10 to 11 feet were recorded over the waters this morning from a passing POES satellite. Seas of 9 to 12 feet will continue on Tuesday due to the easterly breeze becoming a fresh to strong breeze. Seas will only ease slightly to around 7 to 9 feet by Wednesday and Thursday as easterlies become a moderate to fresh strength and southerly swell continues to move through. Surf heights are on the higher end of the High Surf Advisory criteria as of Monday afternoon. The advisory will continue through Thursday. The Small Craft Advisory will continue until at least Thursday and possibly into the upcoming weekend. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A High Surf Advisory remains in effect. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. && $$ LaPlante