Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 261525
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1125 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend southward across the region
today. An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the
Southeast US coast on Wednesday, then continue along the Carolina
coast Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will move eastward
through central NC Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 1115 AM Tuesday...

Water vapor imagery depicts a subtropical ridge axis along the East
Coast, sandwiched between a closed mid/upper low meandering near
Bermuda and broad troughing over the central US. Within this broad
troughing, one shortwave and associated surface low are currently
centered over WI, which will continue to push NE into southern
Ontario through tonight. This system is dragging a cold front to its
south that will slowly push east through the TN Valley. Today will
be dry across most of central NC as the best forcing and moisture
will stay to our west over the TN Valley and Appalachians, and
surface ridging noses down the coast from a high over the Canadian
Maritimes. However, the flow aloft will quickly turn southwesterly
and clouds will continue to thicken and lower through the day,
becoming overcast in the west and mostly cloudy in the east. A
surface low will also develop over the northern Gulf Coast today and
slowly lift NE, pushing a warm front that reaches southern parts of
central NC this evening. Patchy light rain or sprinkles can`t be
ruled out over the western Piedmont from mid afternoon into the
evening from isentropic lift, but kept POPs at only slight to low
chance as model soundings show the low levels staying fairly dry.
The best rain chances will hold off until after midnight. Today`s
temperatures mostly look on track, but did lower them slightly in
the west where many spots are still currently stuck in the 40s due
to the widespread cloud cover moving in. Forecast highs range from
upper-50s to lower-60s around the Triad to mid-to-upper-60s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM Tuesday...

Main focus for this time period will be potential for significant 48-
hr rainfall totals, however the location of the axis of highest
amounts remains in flux.

Central NC will remain under deep, persistent southwesterly flow
through Thu, with a continued feed of Gulf moisture into the area. A
broad upper trough will encompass most of the CONUS, while the sub-
tropical ridge sits just off the East Coast tonight/Wed. The parent
low tracking along the US/Canada border tonight will pick up a
potent s/w lifting into the Great Lakes. Another s/w will drop SE
through the Four Corners and into the southern Plains tonight. The
upper trough will sharpen as the low swings through the western
Great Lakes, deepening as it lifts newd into Ontario, and the s/w
moves east through the southern Plains and lower MS Valley Wed/Wed
night. The s/w should then continue swinging through the Southeast
Thu and offshore Thu night. At the surface, the northern half of an
approaching cold front will occlude over the OH/TN Valley as the
parent low wraps up over the northern Great Lakes today. A secondary
low may develop near the triple point over the southern Appalachians
tonight. Some of the remnant ridge over central NC may inhibit/slow
the northward advancement of the warm front into the area tonight,
possibly resulting in the far northern and/or northwestern portions
of the area remaining on the cool side of the system. The system is
expected to stall over the Carolinas Wed/Wed night, finally moving
eastward through the area on Thu as another low tracks newd along
the front. This low should shift offshore Thu eve/night, with cool
high pressure building into the area in its wake.

Precipitation: Rain/showers will likely move into the area tonight,
possibly falling apart some as they cross the mountains. Coverage
and intensity of rainfall will increase on Wed and persist through
Wed night into Thu. The overall character of the precipitation could
vary across the area, with more stratiform rain north and west of
the low, showers in the warm sector, and possible thunder across the
far south and east, should those areas destabilize enough. The
latest rainfall forecast from the WPC between 00Z Wed and 12Z Thu
ranges from half an inch NW to almost 3 inches east, with the
highest rainfall totals across the Coastal Plain. The excessive
rainfall outlook remains at a marginal risk for central NC, largely
due to the uncertainty of where the axis of highest rainfall totals
will be.

Temperatures: Lows tonight will depend on the timing and northward
advancement of the warm front into central NC, but for now expect
mid 40s NE to mid 50s SW. Highs Wed are most uncertain, but
generally expect mid 50s along the VA border to upper 60s along the
SC border. Lows may remain on the mild side Wed night, mid 40s to
mid 50s. Highs Thu will depend to some respect on how quickly the
low shifts out of the area and cooler air is able to filter in, but
for now expect mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...

Friday - Easter: Broad upper ridging across the southern and central
CONUS and a shortwave digging across the Northeast will yield
northwesterly flow across central NC through the Easter holiday
weekend. Surface high pressure will build east across the Southeast
Friday through Saturday, while a low moves east across the Mid-
Atlantic. The increasing surface pressure gradient will develop
gusty winds in the afternoons through the weekend, with northwest
wind gusts of 20-30 mph Friday and west/west southwest wind gusts of
15-25 mph expected Saturday. Dry weather is expected through the
period, with highs in the 60s Friday rising to the upper 60s to
mid/upper 70s Saturday and Sunday. Lows will be in the 40s Friday
night and 40s and 50s by Saturday night.

Sunday night - Monday: The cold front associated with the low moving
by to our north will stall across NC/VA late Sunday into Monday, and
along with a few perturbations moving across the area embedded in
the mean flow aloft, precipitation chances will return across parts
of the area. Although chances are low due to uncertainty, the best
chance for showers will remain across the northern half of the
region Monday. The stalled front could create a range of
temperatures Monday afternoon, with highs possibility in the upper
60s N to upper 70s S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue across much of central NC through this
evening. MVFR stratus may develop near KRWI between 12-15Z this
morning, however confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this
time. SHRA and MVFR ceilings will approach the Triad by late
evening, with KRDU/KFAY observing VCSH tonight.

Outlook: Rain showers and sub-VFR conditions will develop across
most areas through Thursday. Isolated TSRA are possible Wednesday
and Thursday. VFR conditions will return from west to east late
Thursday into Thursday night and continue into Saturday. Gusty winds
are expected at times Thu and Fri, with northerly isolated gusts to
25 kt Thu and NW more widespread gusts to 25 kt Fri.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJT
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JJT
AVIATION...JJT


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