359
FXUS61 KRNK 111827
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
227 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through the region this evening bringing
another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. High
pressure builds in behind the front with dry weather will through
Monday. The next storm system arrives with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - No change needed to timing and location of showers and
   thunderstorms.

 - High confidence of a dry forecast on Sunday

A short wave over Michigan will generate multiple bands of
shower and isolated thunderstorms that will track southeast
across the region. Good consensus of timing with a large number
of the Hi-Res and convective-allowing models. As an example this
brings the probability of precipitation through Bluefield from
18Z/2PM through 00Z/8PM and through Danville from 22Z/6PM
through 03Z/11PM. The most likely location for thunderstorms is
below the cold air aloft, mainly across West Virginia and the
northern half of Virginia.

Drier air at mid and upper levels comes into the area behind
this short wave tonight and Sunday. Expect low clouds to develop
overnight.These clouds will erode Sunday morning. The winds will
turn to the northwest behind the cold front associated with the
short wave. As mixing begins on Sunday winds will gust into the
20 to 30 mph, especially at higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for warmer conditions on Monday.

2) Unsettled weather will arrive during Monday night into Tuesday
with showers and thunderstorms.

Weak high pressure will move offshore on Monday. A building upper
level ridge combined with southwest flow at the surface should
advect warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Appalachian Mountains for Monday afternoon. However, the jump in
warmth and moisture will also provide increasing clouds and
instability as a low pressure system approaches the central
Mississippi River Valley on Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will begin along the southern Blue Ridge and far southwest Virginia
during Monday night and spread throughout the remainder of the Mid
Atlantic by Tuesday. The unsettled weather will persist through
Tuesday night as the low pressure system crosses West Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for unsettled weather to continue through
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

2) Drier air may briefly return by Thursday, but more showers and
thunderstorms are possible to end the week.

A low pressure system will head eastward across Virginia on
Wednesday to keep conditions unsettled with ongoing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Thunder chances will diminish towards
Wednesday night, and the showers may eventually subside by Thursday
morning as weak high pressure passes to the north. However, more
moisture should return towards Thursday night as another low
pressure system crosses the Southeast. Although the models still
show notable discrepancies, the odds of unsettled weather for the
Appalachian Mountains appear to be higher for Friday. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms might linger into Saturday as the low
pressure system heads to the East Coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

A short wave over Michigan will generate multiple bands of
shower and isolated thunderstorms that will track southeast
across the region. Good consensus of timing with a large number
of the Hi-Res and convective-allowing models. As an example this
brings the probability of precipitation through KBLF from
18Z/2PM through 00Z/8PM and through KDAN from 22Z/6PM through
03Z/11PM. The most likely location for thunderstorms is below
the cold air aloft, mainly across West Virginia and the northern
half of Virginia.Used this timing for the TAFs to put in either
VCTS of -SHRA for this afternoon and evening.

Drier air at mid and upper levels comes into the area behind
this short wave tonight and Sunday. Expect MVFR low clouds to
develop overnight. This includes at KLWB and KBLF. These clouds
will erode Sunday morning before 14Z/10AM. The winds will turn
to the northwest behind the cold front associated with the short
wave. As mixing begins on Sunday winds will gust into the 20 to
30 mph, especially at higher elevations.

Wind speeds lower tonight but do not completely decouple. With
that small amount of mixing and the upslope cloud cover, have
left out any fog overnight.

Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions are expected Sunday afternoon through Monday
under dry, high pressure.

Precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities return to
the region on Tuesday and Wednesday due to a low pressure
system approaching from the central United States.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/BMG