Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 250611
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
211 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep the weather dry through Tuesday afternoon. A
low pressure system crossing through the Great Lakes will slowly
bring a cold front and showers through the region Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday. Friday and Saturday look to be warmer and dry
under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1. Dry high pressure continues to remain in control. Dry weather
expected.

High pressure centered over Canada continues to wedge south
along the Appalachians this morning. Strong surface lows in the
Plains and the Atlantic will enhance the high pressure wedge
through tonight.

Wide range of low tonight. East/southeast winds will continue
through the morning, allowing areas in southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia to remain will-mixed due to downsloping
winds. This will keep temperatures elevated overnight. Areas
further east will have a better chance for radiative cooling,
especially sheltered valleys that decouple. Those that do
decouple likely to see lows in the 20s, however areas that
remain mixed likely to see lows in the mid/upper 30s.

Skies remain mostly sunny today, but will see increasing high
clouds as the frontal system to the west progresses east
throughout the day.

Winds increase overnight for the Mountain Empire and southeast
West Virginia as southeast flow ahead of the approaching front
increases. Could see gusts nearing 30mph by midnight across the
far western slopes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather during Monday night.

2) Rain chances slowly arriving by late Tuesday and most likely
peaking during Wednesday and Wednesday night.

High pressure will keep conditions dry through Monday night across
the Mid Atlantic, but a broad upper level trough will approach the
Plains. A gusty southeast wind may linger west of the Blue Ridge
during Monday night and Tuesday morning in response to a deepening
low pressure system associated with this trough. Meanwhile, a strong
upper level ridge will build over the East Coast. This synoptic
pattern will delay the moisture reaching the Appalachian Mountains.
Thus, rain chances were slowed down during Tuesday and Tuesday night
in agreement with the model consensus showing this trend.

Because the central low for this system occludes and goes north into
Canada during Tuesday night, the cold front will take a long time to
cross the Mid Atlantic. The corresponding bulk of moisture should
come on Wednesday. Another area of low pressure will develop along
the East Coast by Wednesday night to push this front eastward. Given
how stretched out this system will become according to the various
model solutions, rainfall rates do not appear impressive at all, but
the long duration could yield amounts around a half an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for rain chances diminishing on Thursday.

2) Warmer air will arrive by the end of the week.

An area of low pressure along the East Coast will shove the cold
front further offshore on Thursday. A breezy northwest flow could
spark a few upslope rain showers in the mountains, but overall rain
chances will be decreasing during the day. High pressure should
arrive by Friday to bring dry weather. An upper level ridge will
build across the southern United States by Saturday, which should
help to boost temperatures higher for the Mid Atlantic. Forecast
confidence becomes low by the weekend as some model solutions depict
a warm front draped across the northern United States that could
wobble close enough towards the Appalachian Mountains to bring a
chance of rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions through the TAF forecast period.

Winds are the main forecast topic throughout this 24hr TAF
period as high pressure wedges south along the Appalachians.
Winds this morning vary from light/variable in valley locations
to as much as 20 to 24kts across the West Virginia and southwest
Virginia mountains. Southeast flow will increase today and will
see an increase and frequency of wind gusts at BLF. Outside of
BLF, winds generally 10kts or less from the east/southeast
through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Clouds will increase on Tuesday as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. The next chance of rain and IFR/MVFR
conditions occurs during Tuesday afternoon into Thursday with a
slow moving cold front.

Conditions will gradually improve by Thursday night as the low
pressure system heads offshore.

Friday is expected to be VFR and warmer.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG


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