Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Some patchy fog has developed across portions of the eastern
Ozarks but has not become widespread and so far has remained
greater than 1/2 mile in visibility. Fort Leonard Wood was at 3/4
of a mile in the latest observation. Will continue with the patchy
fog overnight and into early Tuesday morning over the eastern
Ozarks, but this should dissipate rather quickly.

Summer like weather looks like it will settle in across the
forecast area over the next 7 days with fairly similar conditions
on a daily basis.

A few showers/thunderstorms may try to sneak into far southern
Missouri by midday through the afternoon, however most locations
will remain on the dry side today with an upper ridge in place.
Some embedded shortwave energy under the ridge would be the
culprit for any convection, but most of this remains to our south.

Can`t rule out some more patchy fog tonight over south central
Missouri into southern Missouri.

Highs today should reach the mid to upper 80s with some heat index
values near 90 in the western CWA. Lows tonight will be in the low
to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Upper ridge will remain over the area until late in the week when
it will break down a bit with a shortwave moving across the upper
midwest and upper Mississippi valley region. Some weak energy
within the ridge combined with afternoon and early evening
instability will bring some low thunderstorm chances on a daily
basis to the region. Shear looks to be fairly weak, so overall
severe weather chances will be minimal.

A low in the Gulf will begin to move inland late in the weekend
and early next week with tropical moisture, mainly across the deep
south, remaining southeast of our CWA. We will still be in line
for mainly diurnal convection through the weekend and early next
week due to afternoon and early evening instability and some upper
level energy. The ECMWF does bring in more energy and rainfall to
the area than does the GFS with respect to the tropical system, so
will need to monitor trends with this.

Temperatures will remain similar on a daily basis with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

A band of IFR stratus was just now advancing to the SGF terminal
location coming in at around 500 feet. Have also thrown in a tempo
group for MVFR visibility for a couple hours at the onset of the
12z TAFS. This should dissipate fairly quickly this morning and by
mid morning should be back to VFR conditions through the remainder
of the period.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.