Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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288 FXUS64 KSJT 191838 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 138 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Short wave ridging will continue to influence the region through tomorrow. This will keep our area dry through the period, with well above normal temperatures continuing. Gusty south winds this afternoon will diminish after sunset, except for some of the higher terrain where winds will remain elevated overnight. Expect clear skies tonight and mostly sunny skies on Monday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with highs on Monday ranging from the mid and upper 90s east, to 99-102 degrees across western sections. South winds will become gusty again late Monday morning into the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 432 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate hot and dry weather will result from a high pressure ridge that sits over our area through Tuesday. Then, a frontal boundary will affect the area on Wednesday afternoon, which will limit high temperatures across the Big Country to the middle 80s. This frontal boundary will combine with a dryline off to the west to support thunderstorm development during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Additional activity is possible across the region on Thursday along the dryline as a minor disturbance aloft also moves through. All of this activity will have to be monitored closely for severe weather potential. Conditions appear to be favorable for possible severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to Tuesday, a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. However, it remains to be seen if any thunderstorm development can be initiated. If it does initiate, then these thunderstorms will certainly carry the risk of severe weather. However, chances remain low (less than 20%) for thunderstorm development. These details will become more clear over the next few days as to exactly what kind of threats may emerge. Please check back over the next day or two for updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Going with a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. Could see some stratus try to develop tomorrow morning across the southern terminals. Confidence remains too low at this time to include a ceiling, so will just include a scattered group around 1.5K FT at the three southern terminals for now. Expect gusty south winds this afternoon, diminishing this evening for most of the terminals. KABI can expected winds to remain gusty overnight, with gusty south winds returning to all terminals after 15Z Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 71 102 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 70 98 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 68 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 72 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 70 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 69 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...24