Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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168 FXUS64 KSJT 091917 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 217 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Tornado Watch in Affect through 9PM CT tonight across the Northwest Hill Country, Heartland, Eastern Concho Valley, and Southeast Big Country. Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening mainly across the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country, Eastern Concho Valley, and Eastern Big Country. Large hail, Damaging Winds, and Isolated Tornadoes are possible across these areas through 9PM tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southwest, potentially affecting the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country, Concho Valley, and Western Heartland. Storms that do develop are not expected to become as severe as we are currently expecting this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Cooler temperatures along with precipitation chances are still anticipated this weekend. Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday, with increasing clouds and breezy northeast winds. Saturday into Sunday continues to look promising for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the evolution of the upper level pattern from Friday night into Sunday. An upper level low will move from northwestern AZ into the southern plains. As this trough approaches, shortwaves will move over Texas in southwest flow aloft. At the surface east to southeast flow will result in upslope lift, especially to our west. In addition, the cold front that will move through the area today will be returning back to the north as a warm front. All this should be enough to bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area from Saturday into Sunday. As far as strength of storms, plenty of deep layer shear will be available, but low level instability is expected to be fairly low until during the day Sunday. So, while thunderstorms will be possible, most should remain below severe levels from Saturday into Saturday night, with stronger storms possible Sunday. Expect precipitation to move out of the area by Monday night, and we`ll see a warming trend for the first half of next week. The next chance for precipitation will begin affecting the area by late Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions will remain across all terminals through this afternoon with increased potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across our eastern-most terminals through this evening. KBBD, KABI, and KJCT could see a shower or thunderstorm through this evening which has been included into the TAF package with the most recent update. Winds will be gusty ahead of the front and remain from the north to northeast through Friday. MVFR conditions are possible again tonight into Friday morning and have been included into the TAF package. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 59 78 60 73 / 10 10 10 50 San Angelo 62 80 62 73 / 10 30 20 70 Junction 64 82 63 79 / 10 30 20 50 Brownwood 60 78 60 74 / 40 10 10 40 Sweetwater 59 78 61 70 / 10 10 10 70 Ozona 63 78 62 73 / 10 40 30 60 Brady 63 77 61 74 / 20 20 10 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...TP