578
FXUS64 KTSA 020535
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain well west of the area this
evening, currently moving into far southwest Oklahoma. Remnants of
decaying MCS will likely move into portions of eastern Oklahoma
late tonight. A few storms could maintain strength, but more
likely will likely weaken by the time activity moves into eastern
Oklahoma. Still a low chance for a few isolated pockets of higher
winds with inverted v soundings depicted in some of the CAM
solutions, but again overall severe threat likely to remain low.
Forecast remains on track this evening, with no major changes
anticipated at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Ongoing MCS across the area Thursday morning will shift eastward
and weaken with time through the morning as it moves into
northwest Arkansas. What happens Wednesday night/Thursday morning
will play a role in the evolution of rain chances later in the day
Thursday and overnight. A frontal boundary is forecast to move
into the area during the day Thursday. If the atmosphere can
recover in time in the wake of previous convection, a renewed
round of showers and storms will be likely along the frontal
boundary Thursday evening, with some severe potential depending on
the airmass in place by that time.

A relative lull in the action is expected on Friday, with some
lingering showers/storms across southeast Oklahoma as the frontal
boundary becomes stalled and washes out during the day Friday.
Broad western CONUS troughing will continue into the weekend
however, allowing for the active pattern to continue through the
weekend. Shower and storm chances increase again on Saturday and
Sunday as several shortwave speed maxes rotate through the larger
scale trough and move out over the Plains. Uncertainty remains in
the severe threat after several days of convection across the
Plains modifying the airmass. But, with it being May, can`t rule
out severe potential any day with storms around the area. The
main upper trough is progged to become negatively tilted and
eject out into the Central Plains on Monday which could bring the
next chance for more widespread severe potential to the region,
but will continue to be dependent on how much the atmosphere has
been worked over by previous convection at that point. This trough
should finally push a frontal boundary through the region and
potentially allow for a brief quieter period for the middle part
of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Currently quiet aviation weather across the area. We will see
CIGs develop and lower tonight but we should stay above MVFR
criteria. A few showers and a very isolated storm may occur
overnight for Oklahoma TAF sites. The main concern will be the
potential for gusty and erratic winds, especially for the Tulsa
area TAFs after 10Z.

Additional showers and storms may develop mid to late morning for
the Arkansas TAF sites, continuing off and on into the afternoon.
A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop across Oklahoma
moving west to east during the late afternoon or evening,
eventually moving into Arkansas. During this time gusty winds,
heavy rain, and lightning may occur. Winds will mostly remain out
of the south to southeast through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  60  80  63 /  70  60  20  30
FSM   77  64  82  65 /  80  60  40  20
MLC   78  62  82  65 /  80  60  30  20
BVO   77  56  79  58 /  70  50  10  30
FYV   77  59  81  62 /  70  60  30  20
BYV   78  61  79  61 /  60  60  20  10
MKO   76  61  80  63 /  70  60  20  30
MIO   76  59  79  61 /  70  70  10  30
F10   78  61  79  63 /  80  60  20  30
HHW   76  64  79  65 /  90  60  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06