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000
FXAK67 PAJK 251208
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
408 AM AKDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...High pressure expands over the AK Gulf and
Panhandle with the resulting blocking pattern providing more dry
weather, light and variable winds, and warm temperatures.
Residual rain showers over the southern panhandle end this
morning. the remaining moisture and clearing skies allowed for
some patchy fog formation. HiRes model boundary layer RH gave
indication of marine layer formation which match initially with
night time micro physics satellite imagery. However it wasn`t as
wide spread as indicated by airport observations. Keeping an eye
on if this stratus deck forms and possibly moves inland. Little
change made to previous forecast as models remained in line. Main
forecast question is if marine layer with form and how far inland
it would track.

.LONG TERM...Thursday a ridge will be building across the
interior of Alaska, with zonal flow over the northern Pacific.
These features will help block active weather from moving into the
region, bringing dry conditions and light winds to the end of the
week. Upstream of the ridge in the Bering Sea, a closed low will
dig into the Gulf of Alaska early Friday morning, making a beeline
for Haida Gwaii. As this feature ejects towards the archipelago,
surface pressure will fall in the Gulf Saturday, with ensembles
indicating a 998mb low and southeasterly 22-28 knot winds into the
central Gulf and coastal waters. While there is uncertainty in
the exact location and orientation of this feature, we will likely
see elevated east winds out of Cross Sound and other east-to-west
orientated passageways into Sunday, along with 25-30 knot
southerly winds in Dixon Entrance and Hecate Strait, perhaps as
far north as southern Clarence Strait.

Regarding precipitation, a desiccant pattern continues for the
future as our systems undergo cyclogenesis in dry regions and fail
to steer ample tropical moisture into the Panhandle. Current IVT
guidance suggests Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon will
see some rainfall for the central and southern region, but amounts
and rates fall below climate normal. One item to note is the
central and southern Panhandle is now marked under a D0 Drought
Intensity (meaning abnormally dry). Temperatures continue to trend
warmer across the Panhandle, with the south reaching into the
upper 50s by Friday.

Extended period for the late weekend and beyond is still looking
rather damp as a new low moves E across the southern gulf.
Southern panhandle again will be the favored areas for rainfall,
but some could reach as far north as Skagway and Cape Fairweather.
Conditions start to dry again toward mid next week as more
easterly flow develops.

&&

.AVIATION...Some MVFR conditions early this morning due to patchy
for formation, otherwise another day of VFR with some sea breeze
development in the late morning but no significant wind concerns.
Watching for marine layer formation under the gulf high pressure.
HiRes boundary layer indicates the low cloud deck moving inland
tonight, but it also has more low clouds early today, which were
not as wide spread.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...PRB

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