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000
FXUS63 KAPX 262349
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
749 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Increasing chances of light mixed precipitation later tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minor...light mix of rain and snow
late tonight with little impact to travel expected.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure remains centered over
Michigan this afternoon...providing mainly sunny skies and no precip
attm. A look upstream shows the approaching cold front to our NW
stretching from the Arrowhead of Minnesota into the Central Plains.
Narrow band of moisture along this front is producing a few
showers...with a general downward trend in areal coverage as it
pushes eastward into the strong high over Michigan. High clouds are
steadily increasing from NW to SE across our CWA in advance of this
front...and expect clouds will continue to increase/lower and
thicken as this front nears tonight.

Latest near term models show a general increase in areal coverage of
the resulting shower activity later tonight into Friday as a strong
upper low pivots SE behind the cold front...providing enhanced lift
and support for precip production. Have increased POPs...but still
expect this will be a relatively narrow time window of precip
chances and a rather low QPF event. Thermal profile suggests any
rain that develops will become mixed with snow late tonight into
Friday. Again...precip will be light and with overnight lows
generally holding above freezing...expect little in the way of
impact to travel.

Precip resulting from the front will move out by around midday or
so...only to be replace with additional chances of rain showers in
our SW CWA Friday afternoon as the closed upper low and surface
reflection begins to swing into the Western Great Lakes region. High
temps Friday afternoon will range from the 40s in the NW half of our
CWA to the mid to upper 50s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Below normal temperatures with some snow to begin the weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal, expect some rain snow mix
over portions of northern Michigan Friday night and snow Saturday
morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Centered largely on
precipitation type and snowfall Friday night and Saturday as
vertical temperature profiles fall back below freezing.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Base of upper trough and weakly
organized sfc system, which moved into the Great Lakes Friday, will
slowly exit east of the region Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, 500mb
heights slowly recover through Sunday as an upper ridge strengthens
over the Midwest and wrn Great Lakes. Additionally, at the surface,
a large area of high pressure pushing across central Canada and
northern Plains on Friday, will move east and settle over the Great
Lakes Sunday.

Any precipitation lingering over northern Michigan Friday night and
Saturday with this exiting system, will influence the region between
00z and 15z Saturday. After 15z Saturday model soundings show an
extremely dry airmass, associated with a large area of high
pressure, settling over northern Michigan through Sunday. Model
soundings would suggest a fairly quick transition from rain Friday
evening trending to snow after 06z Sat, as 850mb temps fall from -4c
Friday night to -6c Saturday and freezing levels drop to under
200ft. 850mb temps slowly warm to between 0c and +2c Sunday
afternoon, as surface and upper level ridging build into the wrn
lakes.

Overall will increase pops over the entire cwa Friday night and
Saturday morning, as model soundings show sufficient moisture
through 500mb and 850/500mb and 500/300mb qvectors show significant
forcing in advance of deep 500mb trough pushing over northern
Michigan. Some lake enhancements are also briefly possible Saturday
morning along the Lake Michgian shoreline. Though lake influences
should be limited to lake clouds and light snow showers due to
marginal over lake instability (850mb temps around -7c), inversion
heights under 4k ft, while 925-850mb winds try to settle in from the
north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Above normal temperatures next week with occasional rain...

Warm and moist air will get directed into MI and the Great Lakes
through the extended period as high pressure remains to our
southeast. Meanwhile, low pressure moves out of the northern plains
and into the Great Lakes late Monday spreading showers into the
region. A frontal system will then get hung up across the Great
Lakes bringing a continued chance of showers and maybe even a few
thunderstorms through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Some MVFR CIGS later tonight...

High clouds continue to stream in over nrn Michigan this evening,
while a cold front, currently from the eastern portion of upper
Michigan through Wisconsin, crosses the region late tonight into
Friday morning. Not much is happening with this front right now,
but help from an upper level sharpening shortwave will increase
forcing as it approaches nrn Michigan. The expectation is for a
narrow corridor of showers, possibly mixed with a touch of snow,
to cross the airports, particularly the NW lower airports. A
secondary shortwave drops into mainly TVC/MBL tomorrow afternoon
and evening for some more light rain showers, and again possibly
mixing with a little light snow Friday night.

Light winds will turn NW behind the front tonight and remain N/NW
and relatively light through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria tonight thru much of
Friday night..before winds increase to SCA criteria very late Friday
night into Saturday as winds strength behind the departing low.
Chances of mixed precip will increase tonight into Friday morning as
a cold front slides thru the region. Additional chances of mixed
precip will develop Friday afternoon into Saturday as the upper low
and surface reflection sweep thru the Western Great Lakes.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...MR