Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270243
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1043 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak storm system entering Virginia will move northeast
along the coast Friday and into New England Friday night. An
upper air disturbance will swing into the region from the Great
Lakes Saturday and early Sunday.

A stretch of fair weather with a warming trend will start
Monday as high pressure builds over the Atlantic Coast. Above
normal temperatures are likely for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

High clouds continue to increase ahead of the next storm system
currently over the SERN states beginning to eject off to the
NE. The latest HRRR shows some showers reaching far SRN PA by
around midnight, but the bulk of the rain is expected to hold
off until just a few hours before sunrise. This timing looks
reasonable as the first echoes begin to show up on our radar
south of the Mason-Dixon line.

Overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s over the north to mid
40s south will be near to a bit above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Rain will overspread the SERN 2/3 or so of the forecast area by
mid to late morning. Steady rain will taper off to scattered
showers in the afternoon as the lead shortwave shears out to the
NE of the state. QPF will not be terribly impressive, but will
be fairly widespread.

Highs will average in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A shot of arctic air will move into the area Saturday night and
Sunday with 8H temps near -10C and 1000-500 thickness less than
530dam. The consistency across the models is pretty good with
this mass field result, so confidence in cold temps and a gusty
NW wind is high. The lake/8H temp difference will support SHSN
at Saturday night/Sun AM across the far north and west.

The fcst not bad, main change was to up winds longer on
Monday, and lower dewpoints some Sunday into Monday, given the
winds aloft and airmass source.

With some clouds and a breeze Sunday night, this will help
taper the risk of frost early Monday across the region.

Will still be too breezy early Monday for burning brush and
leaves. Better chance for that after Monday.

Temperatures moderate Tuesday into Thursday, as high pressure
moves east of the area. Given how dry it is over portions of the
Great Plains, I did not rush higher dewpoints into too fast,
given that as the source region of the warm up.

Green up is largely controlled by nights with mild temperatures
and higher dewpoints at night than we have seen. Only night
that way was back in February. Need to stay above 50 degrees to
get much response from the grass and many trees.

Looking at some showers late Thursday, as the cold front moves
into the area.

Mean trough tries to kick back in after this warm up. Some
hints it could be wet for several days, especially if the 12Z EC
is correct.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will prevail through daybreak across much of Pennsylvania
with cloud bases lowering from 25 KFT AGL to 8-10 KFT AGL around
08Z Friday. The exception will be over the southern few layers
of counties, where a MVFR Nimbostratus deck (and the leading
edge of a large area of light rain) will move in from the south
during the predawn hours on Friday.

Low pressure lifting up the eastern seaboard will likely spread
rain and generally MVFR (to briefly high end IFR) Cigs and MVFR
to VFR vsbys across roughly the SE half to two thirds of the
state during the mid to late morning, and the mainly light rain
will continue through the late morning hours Friday across
Scent PA and the Middle Susq Valley, and into the mid afternoon
hours over the Middle Susq Valley and Ncent Mtns.


Outlook...

Fri...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly eastern Pa.

Sat...Showers, especially early.

Sun...Breezy. AM low cigs/flurries possible W Mtns.

Mon...No sig wx expected. Breezy early.

Tue...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert


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