426
FXUS61 KCTP 081119
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
719 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
- A mainly dry cold front pushes through during the day.
- A strong wave of low pressure will move across southern PA
  Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Just isolated SHRA possible across the nrn mtns for the next
few hrs as a cold front moves thru. Air has only started to dry
out in ERI/JHW where the sky is clearing. It should get breezy
and very warm after the "cold" front moves thru. It`s really
more like a dry line. Forcing is well to the east. Gusts will
get up into the L30s N and upper teens in the S. Maxes in the
80s will be common, with u70s over the NW third. The front then
lays out along or near our srn border for tonight and early
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
After an intitially clear sky, nigh clouds will increase from
the SW. The NAM pushes the old front a little farther S than the
GFS. A wave of low pressure will develop to the west and roll
along the front later tonight. Even the more-northerly position
of the old front would be a little too far S for much/any
convection to make it`s way into PA before sunrise.

During the early morning hours of Thursday, the old/stationary
front has potential to rise northward, but most guidance seems
to only take it up to the srn border of the CWA. If the low-
pressure system sets up further to the north, there is some
potential for portions of southern PA to have a couple of hours
in the warm sector and some severe potential (outlined in SPC`s
Day 3 SWO with SLGT up to the MD-PA border) but with the bulk of
model guidance suggesting set-up south of the area, have mainly
stuck to SChc thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The aforementioned low moves off the coast on Friday and will
allow for relatively cool temperatures across central PA with
lingering showers as the unsettled pattern continues into the
weekend with the longwave trough across the region. The best
chances of precipitation tapering off will be in the overnight
Saturday morning period with chances increasing into the latter
half of the weekend.

Upper level ridging across the western CONUS will continue the
unsettled pattern into the beginning of next week, with
temperatures moderating with height rises and southwesterly flow
into central Pennsylvania.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms continues to push
east across central PA early this morning, set to impact MDT
and LNS between 09-13z. Ahead of the line, moisture over the
eastern part of PA has led to periods of IFR vsby at LNS. Behind
the line of convection an increasingly moist southwest flow
ahead of an upstream cold front is producing low MVFR cigs at
BFD. Prior to 12z, MVFR cigs are likely to spread down into JST,
and IFR cigs can not be ruled out at both JST and BFD.

The cold front will sweep through the region later this
morning, probably without any precipitation. A drier westerly
flow behind the front will bring a return to widespread VFR
conditions for much of today.

Outlook...

Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs possible, mainly PM.

Fri...Low cigs/drizzle possible, especially in the morning.

Sat...PM showers/low cigs possible, mainly W Mtns.

Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct afternoon showers/brief
vis reductions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Colbert