851
FXUS63 KDDC 182319
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
619 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures this weekend with highs nearing the century
  mark.

- Thunderstorms chances (20-30%) return to extreme southwest
  Kansas Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft slowly building northward
across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Based on radar trends and CAMs, a few diunrally-driven showers/storms
may linger across central/south central Kansas through early evening.
Otherwise, drier conditions are expected through late Saturday afternoon.
Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to west central and extreme
southwest Kansas Saturday evening as the SREF indicates a weak upper
level shortwave trough lifting northeast across the Southern Rockies
into the Western Plains on the backside of an upper level high centered
across the Ark-La-Tex Region. Near the surface, pooled moisture reinforced
by prevailing southerlies will provide ample instability across western
Kansas ahead of an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest
while a trough axis remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.
As a result, diurnally-driven thunderstorm development is likely across
eastern Colorado late Saturday afternoon as H5 vort maxima eject out
of the Southern Rockies with storms then spreading eastward, potentially
into far western Kansas Saturday evening. This is supported by the
latest HREF showing just a 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding
0.1 of an inch near and along the Colorado line by late Saturday
evening.

A little above normal temperatures are forecast Saturday as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass with H85 temperatures well
above 25C in central Kansas to a little above 30C near the Colorado
line. Under plenty of sunshine, look for afternoon highs ranging from
the mid/upper 90s(F) to a little above 100F. This is suggested by
the HREF painting a widespread >90% probability of temperatures topping
95F with a 90% probability of exceeding 100F in south central Kansas.
Similar temperatures are likely Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Occasional
mid level moisture/clouds in the 5000 to 10000ft AGL level will
cross southwest Kansas over the next 24 hours. This is due to
subtle upper waves rotating around a flattened 500mb high
pressure system extending from North Texas into the Southeast
United States. A nearly stationary surface boundary across
eastern Colorado will maintain southerly winds at 10 to 15 knots
overnight. These winds will shift to more southwesterly during
the day on Saturday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert