434
FXUS63 KDDC 160502
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Today with temperatures near the century mark in some
  areas.

- Increasing thunderstorm chances (50-80%) late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025


Convection chances this evening are very low. Ensemble based
probabilities for lighting are only about 5-10 % from Syracuse
to Scott City between about 7 pm and 11 pm MDT. If any storms
occurs , lightning and moderately gusty winds (20-40 mph) are
the main expected impacts in those areas. There a high level
smoke plume on satellite (and modeled by the HRRR vertically
integrated smoke fields) coming out of Arizona Grand Canyon
fires that should make for an interesting sunset and maybe even
lower the visibility in a weak haze for a day or two. A balmy
overnight expected with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
west. And in the low to mid 70s in the Lower Plains.

A large area of high pressure over the Northern Plains will
gradually move equatorward over the short term, pushing a cold
front across Kansas and western CO on Wednesday. This will
likely create (50-80% coverage) moderate intensity rain showers
and thunderstorms as early as mid afternoon Wednesday and
extending through the overnight, ending altogether sometime
Thursday morning. Highest precipitation probabilities are
focused over west central Kansas (upwards of 80 percent chance
as the convective allowing models develop various renditions of
a forward propagating MCS) while the lower probabilities
(20-50%) area found across the Red Hills region. In general, at
DDC, we are not looking for heavy rain accumulations. There is
about a 10% chance of an inch of rain while about a 40% chance
for a quarter of an inch through Thursday morning.

Thunderstorms are again possible each day from Thursday through
the weekend. About a 60 % chance for thunderstorms on Thursday
evening over the western counties, shifts eastward over the next
few days into the weekend decreasing to around the 30 and 20
percent chance thresholds. The Cold frontal influence as well as
evening Thunderstorms on Thursday will limited temperatures to
the 70s and low 80s in the afternoon, with the coolest overnight
temps in the low 60s by Friday morning. Thursdays max will be
dictated by the placement or timing of the front, for instance
at DDC the high temp 75th and 25th percentile NBM values fall at
84 degrees and 77 degrees.

Heat Risk build back up through early and mid next week as lows
are limited to the 70s and highs get back into the upper 90s
and low 100s F. It is not a particularly windy period as the NBM
percentile mean gusts are capped at around 15 to 20 knots most
days. By Monday, areas southeast of a Hays to Elkhart line will
be under a moderate category heat risk (level 2 of 4) and he
heat risk should expand and increase into midweek as more areas
hit 100F.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

An outflow boundary/cold front will cross the I-70 corridor
between 06z and 08z as an area of thunderstorms crosses north
central Kansas. This boundary will become nearly stationary
between Dodge City, Garden City and Hays late tonight and
through Wednesday, creating a favorable area for widely
scattered thunderstorms late today and early tonight. South of
this boundary overnight and Wednesday the winds will be
southerly at near 15 knots. North of the boundary the winds
will initially be northeasterly, gradually shifting to east
southeast at 10 to 15 knots. BUFR soundings indicate cloud cover
overnight and early Wednesday will be between 8000 and 12000
feet AGL. Isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms
may develop later this afternoon, initially occurring between
Hays, Dodge City, and Garden City. After 00z Thursday, the
chance of thunderstorms will increase as VFR ceilings lower to
3000 to 5000 feet AGL.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert