Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Water vapor loop and RAP analysis this afternoon showed a fairly
impressive, small-scale storm across Iowa with sharp shortwave
ridging in its wake across the Central Plains. A much larger scale
trough was forming along the West Coast, and the increased southwest
flow aloft ahead of this trough was allowing high level Pacific
moisture to push into the Desert Southwest and Rockies. Some of this
high cloud was starting to push into eastern Colorado this
afternoon. In the lower levels, the edge of stratus cloud was quasi-
stationary from near LBF to RSL to near ICT. A narrow ridge of
surface high pressure was centered from central Nebraska into
western Kansas. The shallow cool airmass across Nebraska will expand
southwest tonight thanks to nocturnal pressure rises, but at the
same time, a leeside trough will start to strengthen over eastern
Colorado. Surface winds will gradually veer to the southeast, and is
happening a bit slower than previous short term model runs were
indicating, which is not really a surprise.

The upshot of all this is that this cool airmass across western
Kansas tomorrow morning will be very difficult to dislodge from
southwest to northeast thanks to isentropic lift off the surface
leading to widespread stratus. Patchy drizzle will also be likely
across mainly west central KS where this saturated low level airmass
will be a little deeper with decent warm advection in the 900-800mb
layer. As far as temperatures go, this will be a huge forecast
challenge, given the fact that areas farther north toward I-70
should stay socked in with low stratus and patchy drizzle much of
the day. Farther southwest, toward Elkhart, southwest downslope
momentum will develop and temperatures should respond very nicely.
We will probably be looking at close to 30-degree (F) gradient
across western KS from Elkhart to Hays or points just north.  The
official forecast for temperatures is largely a blend of the latest
mesoscale models with some added weight toward the NAM solutions,
which are colder (although probably a touch too cool).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

The deep western trough that was mentioned in the Short Term section
will push out across the Rockies and Desert Southwest region Monday-
Tuesday, but will be taking on a positively-tilted orientation,
which does not bode well for significant precipitation across
western Kansas. In fact, much of the southwest KS will probably
stay dry through this trough passage early-mid week. Tuesday will
be fairly cool with fresh Canadian airmass pushing in, although
not overly cold. We will likely see highs in the lower 50s much of
the area Tuesday, with a recovery to the 60s Wednesday. A
secondary jet streak on the back side of the longwave trough will
push into Wyoming and Colorado Wednesday Night-Thursday, and this
will likely lead to another shot of low level cold advection and
possibly some scattered showers given how cold aloft it will
likely be. This deep trough axis will finally shift east by
Friday, leading to a renewed warmup period going into the next


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

High confidence that stratus will spread into the SW KS terminals
tonight through Sunday morning. IFR cigs are expected. SE winds
will remain elevated tonight, assisting with strong moisture
advection. Kept surface visibility largely unrestricted in the
TAFs, but areas of BR/DZ are expected during the 09z-18z Sun
timeframe. Stratus will gradually erode from west to east during
the daylight hours on Sunday, but stratus will persist much of the
day at HYS. Surface pressure gradient will tighten after 15z Sun,
as a 996 mb surface cyclone develops in SE Colorado. Strong SE
winds will result at GCK/DDC, averaging 20-30 kts. Expect SE winds
to be slightly less at HYS, and trend southerly at LBL Sunday


DDC  39  64  46  68 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  40  69  41  67 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  42  79  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  44  78  44  71 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  34  50  43  63 /  10  20  50  20
P28  40  60  51  74 /  10  20  40  10




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.